College Basketball Best Bets Today
Happy College Basketball Season!
We’ve got games pretty much all day to begin the season, but I won’t look at any games that start earlier than 4 p.m. ET as we go forward. Lead time for the readers is very important to me and it is unfair to put picks out there that are not accessible to everybody.
If you’re new to the column and maybe new to VSiN, I usually look to have around three plays per day. A lot of my handicapping is based on statistical analysis, mainly shot selection and teams in line for positive or negative regression. Obviously we don’t have any stats to begin the season, so it will be about figuring out the teams with the most impactful transfers or relying on teams that I know will get to the rim and take high-percentage shots or shoot open 3s.
I’ll be using a daily tracking sheet to keep tabs on how things are going. Here’s the 2023 one.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Before I get going, I want to give shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.
Here we go. Good luck to everyone this season.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Toledo Rockets at Troy Trojans (-6, 154.5)
7 p.m. ET
Toledo and Troy are both teams on my radar early this season because a lot of last year’s pieces and parts are back on the roster again. Troy is a team I am especially interested in. They were sixth in the nation in shot share on Close Twos at 47.5% per Torvik, but 334th in FG% on those shot types (dunks, layups, and tip-ins). I’m not sure what the issue was, but the Trojans got a ton of high-percentage looks and didn’t capitalize.
Scott Cross runs a really good offense. Last season, over 87.5% of the team’s shot attempts were at the rim or beyond the arc. They shot 35.3% from 3 with a 40% 3P Rate, so that is very encouraging. Some positive regression at the rim and they have a great chance at being the top offense in the Sun Belt this season.
Tod Kowalczyk almost always has a good offense at Toledo. They actually didn’t take a lot of 3s last season, but shot 37.7% on them. They were also a top-50 team in shot share at the rim. And, as great as Troy was at recognizing the importance of getting to the tin, they were just as bad on the defensive end, posting the 351st shot share against on Close Twos at 44.6%. But, they were 49th in FG% defense on those shots.
So I think Troy’s offense will improve and the defense will regress. A perfect storm for a game that should be played at a high rate of speed. Torvik had Toledo 75th in adjusted tempo last season and Troy was 66th. I expect both teams to play a little faster with the excitement of the start of the season.
Pick: Toledo/Troy Over 154.5
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at UNC Greensboro Spartans (-6, 135.5)
7 p.m. ET
The season begins for FGCU and UNCG with some storylines to follow for both teams. For the Eagles, it is that Patrick Chambers begins his third year in Fort Myers. He has star Keeshawn Kellman along for the ride and also brought in some transfers in Jevin Muniz from Delaware State and Zavian McLean from Columbia. McLean is an effective slasher and a good overall shooter, while Muniz is a volume shooter who improved greatly from his freshman year to his sophomore year.
Michael Duax is an interesting addition from Northern Iowa as a guy that should get more run for FGCU after falling out of favor following a freshman season in which he shot 63% on 2s. I think the Eagles are improved on offense. Whether they improved on defense or not is the question. Chambers had some elite defenses at Penn State, but he’s had the opposite with the Eagles. I have to think he’s done a better job of isolating players that fit what he wants on that end of the floor.
Mike Jones has had a strong tenure at UNCG and the Spartans are usually a really good team. But, I think it could be a struggle at the outset here. Mikael Brown-Jones is now at Ole Miss and Langley brothers Keyshaun and Kobe both exhausted their eligibility. Kobe was the distributor with nearly six assists per game. Keyshaun was the scorer with 15.4 PPG. Brown-Jones had 18.9 PPG.
Donovan Atwell is a great 3-point shooter, but he’s likely to have a lot more contested shots without the other weapons. Kenyon Giles transferred in from Radford and he’ll run point, but he’s a poor 3-point shooter and that is a big part of the Spartan offense. They were 320th in tempo and 36th in 3P Rate, as 44% of their shots were from beyond the arc.
I think FGCU is improved, UNCG is not, and six points are too many.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast +6
Fairfield Stags at Rhode Island Rams (-11, 148.5)
8 p.m. ET
The season begins with a lot of questions for Fairfield and head coach Chris Casey. The Stags were one of the bigger surprises in the MAAC last season with an 11-win improvement overall and a five-win improvement in conference play. Most of that improvement can be attributed to two areas – 3-point shooting and turnovers.
Unfortunately, Jalen Leach, Caleb Fields, and Brycen Goodine are all gone. That trio shot 40.5% from 3 and took 568 of the team’s 904 3-pointers. Perhaps more importantly, that trio made 230 of the team’s 327 3s. They were all very responsible with the basketball as well, so Fairfield is going to have to find new scorers, ball handlers, and facilitators.
For a team that took a 3 on 42% of shot attempts and had an assist rate under 50%, I think this offense could really suffer in the early going. Meanwhile, I don’t think that Rhode Island’s offense will suffer. Archie Miller’s team was second in the nation in shot share on Close Twos, so they get to the rim a lot. Fairfield does not have a lot of size and this will be a big ask for second-year player Peyton Smith and lightly-used Birima Seck, the only Stags who are taller than 6-foot-7.
The Rams have a ton of returning production and added 7-footer Javonte Brown from Western Michigan. Sebastian Thomas is back after a year at Albany, where he shined playing the point. It is a big number, but Rhode Island’s shot selection and ability to get to the line should be good enough against a thin Fairfield roster.
Pick: Rhode Island -11
