College basketball best bets for Saturday

As teased yesterday, the storm is here. Literally and figuratively, as major weather systems are altering the NFL Playoff games today and we also have 133 games worth of college basketball to consider. Action begins at Noon ET and runs right on through midnight with the “chase game” in Hawaii tonight.

As usual, to be fair to readers and give the article enough lead time, I handicapped college basketball games that tip at 3 p.m. ET or later. I actually found one right at 3 p.m. ET that I liked, so note the early-ish start time. Refer to some of the resources linked below for games earlier than that.

 

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South Dakota State Jackrabbits (-3, 162.5) at Denver Pioneers

3 p.m. ET

South Dakota State heads to Denver for a Summit League matinee on Saturday and it should be a game that lights up the scoreboard. I’m not quite sure where to start with this one, but there are a lot of stats that point towards a high-scoring affair. The line on the game obviously implies the same, but I think it’s actually a little low at 162.5.

Let’s start with the tempo and some recent data points. Bart Torvik lists Denver 59th in the nation in adjusted tempo and South Dakota State 105th. Recently, SDSU got St. Thomas to play a game to 69 possessions and Montana State to play to 72 possessions. The Tommies rank 358th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and the Bobcats are 230th. SDSU got them to play well above their season averages. Denver and Northern Colorado, whose tempo is a little higher than SDSU’s, played to 76 possessions last Saturday.

The Pioneers have played a weak schedule, but they’ve had at least 1.016 or higher points per possession in every game except one (BYU). Their shot selection fits the profile of a team that I’d look to back or bet an Over with, as 77.6% of their FG attempts vs. Division I opponents are either Close Twos or 3-pointers. They’ve struggled to finish at the rim at 51% with a 41.5% shot share, but SDSU has allowed opponents to make over 60% of their Close Two attempts.

Denver is actually 22nd in the nation in 3P% and SDSU forces opponents into a 3 on 46.8% of shot attempts. The Pioneers have only played three D-I home games this season, but they’ve shot 43.9% from 3 in those games.

Another key element here is that Denver is horrible on defense. The Pioneers have a 12.9% TO%, which ranks 357th in the nation. They are 337th in eFG% defense and 334th in 3P% defense. South Dakota State is 42nd in 2P% at 54.7% and 56th in 3P% at 36.5%. They are 35th in the nation in eFG%. Denver is allowing a 63.9% FG% on Close Twos. South Dakota State’s shot selection also largely ignores mid-range jumpers with a Rim+3 rate of 76.6%, the same as Denver’s.

Both offenses should score here and the pace should be conducive to a high-scoring contest. Defense is pretty optional in the Summit League.

Pick: Over 162.5

Cal State Fullerton Titans at Cal State Northridge Matadors (-4, 144.5)

4 p.m. ET

We’ve got a good bounce back opportunity for Cal State Northridge in this one against Cal State Fullerton. The Matadors had been rolling right along until Thursday’s 20-point loss to UC Davis, in which CSUN only had seven points in the first 11:14 of the game to dig an 18-point hole. 

Not much went right for the Matadors. Third-leading scorer and top rebounder Keonte Jones picked up two fouls in the first five minutes of the game and a third midway through the first half. That is one of several reasons why I think we see a bounce back on their home floor today.

Northridge has a shot share on Close Twos of 51.2%, which ranks second in the nation. Fullerton ranks 265th in shot share against on Close Twos at 40.1% and 265th in FG% against at 60.8%. Offensively, Fullerton is 327th in FG% on those shots at 51.6%. Northridge has the 27th-lowest shot share against on Close Twos at 30.7%, so they keep teams away from the interior and also defend well in that. That provides huge advantages on both ends of the floor for the Matadors.

So, where do shots come from against CSUN? The outside, of course. Their 3P Rate against is 46.2%. UC Davis burned them by shooting 15-of-34 from 3 in the last game, but I don’t expect Fullerton to find much success. The Titans are shooting 29.8% on 3s this season and don’t like to take a lot of them.

I also feel like Northridge’s tempo is a problem for Fullerton as well. The Matadors are seventh in adjusted tempo per Torvik and the Titans are 305th. First-year head coach Andy Newman has done an incredible job this season and I expect him to rally the troops for a bounce back performance.

Pick: Cal State Northridge -4

Drake Bulldogs (-2, 136.5) at Southern Illinois Salukis

8 p.m. ET

We’ve got a top-tier game in the Missouri Valley Conference with Drake and Southern Illinois squaring off this evening. These are two top-100 teams per Torvik and there are a lot of things to like about each squad, but I like the home underdog a little more in this contest.

Southern Illinois is a top-50 team in both eFG% offense and defense. Drake is 47th in offense, but 256th in defense. The Bulldogs have hid some poor defensive FG% numbers by forcing a lot of turnovers. They have a TO% of 20.6% and have taken great care of the basketball on offense as well, but SIU is 120th in TO% on offense and 198th in TO% on defense, so that isn’t as big of an advantage for Drake as it is in a lot of their games.

Drake’s shot share on Close Twos is only 27.9%, so even though they’ve been wildly successful with those shots, over 70% of their shot attempts have been jumpers and they’re playing in a tough road venue here. Southern Illinois not only has the 26th-ranked 3P Rate against, but also the second-best 3P% against in the nation at 26.1%. The Salukis are also firing at a 38.9% clip on 3s.

Drake is 234th in 2P% defense and 256th in 3P% defense. In a game that looks to be played in the mid-60s from a possession standpoint, I like SIU’s offense better in this one, especially because they’ll take better care of the ball than most of Drake’s opponents and hopefully expose those shooting percentages against.

Pick: Southern Illinois +2

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