College basketball schedule today has 31 games
We’ve got a much larger card to choose from today with some bigger teams in action and 18 more games than last night, at least in terms of D-I vs. D-I action. The picks are off to a 5-6 start (-1.6 units) after going 0-2 last night, losing badly on USF/NIU under and coming up a point short on New Mexico (-4) vs. San Francisco. I just started capping college hoops last Monday when the article debuted and the season hasn’t officially started until you lose a game by a point or a half-point.
As the sample sizes increase, my hope is that stronger positions emerge and the stats I use to handicap become more and more telling. Along with my article Monday through Friday, we’ve got NBA best bets from JVT every day and the same with daily NHL picks from Andy MacNeil. Be sure to check those guys out, as they do outstanding work.
Here are some thoughts on the December 13 card (odds from DraftKings):
Furman Paladins at NC State Wolfpack (-6.5, 155)
The Paladins are eighth in the nation in 2P% at 60.1%, but they’ve played the 299th-ranked schedule per Bart Torvik, 278th per Ken Pomeroy and the 290th-ranked schedule of opposing defenses per KenPom. That makes NC State a pretty big step up in class with a top-70 adjusted defensive efficiency per Torvik and a top-75 per KP.
NC State has already played two top-100 teams and has gone 2-2, but has averaged at least .998 points per possession in those four games and much better than that in the other three. Furman has played one top-100 team and allowed 1.135 points per possession to Penn State. Against a weak opposing schedule of Division I opponents, Furman ranks 303rd in the nation in 3P% against and 337th in 2P% against. The Wolfpack also ranks 22nd in TO% on offense, so they should take care of the basketball against a team that struggles badly to defend in the halfcourt.
Pick: NC State -6.5
UTSA Roadrunners at Utah Utes (-22.5, 139)
I backed Utah to a win last time out against Jacksonville State, as the Utes made it rain on the Gamecocks. Utah had 1.462 points per possession, going 16-of-28 from 3 and 22-of-40 on 2s. The Utes also had an enormous rebounding edge in the 99-58 win. This one against UTSA should be another chance to roll, as the line properly indicates against a team that has played the 351st-ranked schedule per Bart Torvik and 354th per Ken Pomeroy.
However, that last game was played to a pretty reasonable 68 possessions and I would expect this one to be in that range. I don’t see UTSA doing much on offense and I feel like Utah will have a more reserved offensive performance. They have a rivalry game coming up on the road in Provo against BYU and Craig Smith could work some of the reserves into this game.
UTSA has really slowed down the tempo relative to past seasons and draws a top-10 defense in eFG%, 3P% and 2P% here, so it’s hard to see the Roadrunners doing their part to help the total. The Roadrunners also settle for a lot of 3s and opponents are shooting 24.4% against Utah on the season.
Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are two sites I really like to reference and they have this game at 134 and 133.87, so the market number of 139 looks high relative to their numbers. Shop around, as this line is as high as 140 in the market and mostly 139.5.
Pick: Under 139.5 (widely available)
