College basketball schedule today has 54 games
Major tilts in the SEC and Big 12 take the spotlight tonight, as we’ve got more than 50 games on the college basketball menu. All eyes will definitely be on Alabama vs. Tennessee in what some will call a potential Final Four preview. As for me, I’ll have my attention elsewhere in search of some good bets and games that aren’t as much of a toss-up. (Pick tracking sheet)
We’ve also got a Sweet 16 of games across the NBA and NHL with 10 in the Association and six on the ice. Check out Jonathan Von Tobel’s NBA best bets today and Andy MacNeil’s daily NHL picks.
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Here are some thoughts on the February 15 card (odds from DraftKings):
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Western Carolina Catamounts (-3, 140)
Western Carolina is looking for the sweep of East Tennessee State in this matchup down in Cullowhee, NC. The Catamounts won the first meeting in Johnson City back on Jan. 4 by a 71-60 score. There are a few things I like about the Catamounts in this one laying a short number.
The first is that they have the chance to win by margin because of the shot selection of both teams. Both teams have a shot share of 35.2% on Close Twos. ETSU is converting at a much higher rate than WCU, but the Catamounts are taking a lot of 3s and the Buccaneers are allowing a lot of 3-point attempts. Western Carolina shoots a 3 on 42.5% of its shots and ETSU allows a 3P Rate of 43.6%. Conversely, East Tennessee State is shooting just 31.2% on 3s and the Catamounts only allow a 3P Rate of 27.6%. This is one of those games where one team has a good chance of scoring by 3s and the other has to score by 2s.
That’s how the first game went. Western Carolina outscored East Tennessee State by 30 points on 3-point shots and won the game by 11. The Buccaneers were 15-of-26 at the rim compared to Western Carolina’s 8-of-17, so the game script played out like it should. Now Western Carolina is at home, where you’d expect them to shoot better.
There is one key injury in this game for Western Carolina that I looked for information on for about a half hour this morning. Leading scorer and rebounder Tyzhaun Claude has missed the last two games. I’m hopeful that he’ll return tonight because this line is right around the projections from Bart Torvik, Haslametrics and KenPom, so there is no clear indication that he’ll be out. He had 11 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes in the first meeting, so I’d like him to be there, but as the inside threat for Western Carolina, they’ll likely just take more 3s if he’s out and that should be just fine here.
Pick: Western Carolina -3
Boise State Broncos (-3, 138.5) at Colorado State Rams
Boise State won the first meeting by 21 back on Jan. 28 and this game should also go the way of the Broncos. Colorado State has a good offense and ranks ninth in 2P%, but this is a Boise State team that ranks 17th in eFG% defense and 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency per Bart Torvik. The Rams had success getting inside to a degree in the first meeting, but still only scored 59 points. They also had 10 offensive rebounds to just one for the Broncos, even though Boise State is a top-10 team by defensive rebounding percentage and Colorado State ranks 362nd in offensive rebounding percentage.
So, that was a pretty noticeable outlier and it still didn’t help the Rams. The biggest problem for Colorado State here is that they push opponents into a lot of 3s, but are really bad at defending them. Boise State is 73rd in the nation in 3P% at 35.9% with a 3P Rate of 37.9%. Colorado State’s 3P Rate against is 43.9% and they’re allowing opponents to hit 37.2% of them. Meanwhile, Boise State is holding opponents to 28.1% from 3, which ranks seventh in the nation.
The Rams’ claim to fame on defense is keeping teams away from the rim with a shot share against of 28.7%, but the Broncos aren’t reliant on getting to the rim. That said, they were 13-of-16 at the rim in the first meeting, while Colorado State was 14-of-23.
This just looks like a bad matchup for the Rams and a good one for the Broncos.
Pick: Boise State -3
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