College basketball best bets today

The number of games continues to rise as we work our way through the week. The Hump Day college basketball slate features 52 games to think about. We’ll hit 63 tomorrow before dropping down dramatically for Friday and then picking back up again on Saturday. This article runs Monday-Saturday, though I may mix in some Sundays for college basketball best bets today after the Super Bowl.

That being said, when we get past the Super Bowl, it’s time to focus on MLB once again and getting out our baseball season preview guide. Oh, and we’ll be previewing every conference tournament in advance of the NCAA Tournament. It’ll be a busy time, so this is the best time to be here at VSiN.

 

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Here are three college basketball best bets for today.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

High Point Panthers (-2, 157) at UNC Asheville Bulldogs

6:30 p.m. ET

A heavyweight fight in the Big South will get overshadowed by Alabama/Auburn and others, but this has potential to be an instant classic type of game between High Point and UNC Asheville. High Point won the first meeting back on Jan. 10, but I’m expecting the Bulldogs to get revenge as a short home pup in this one.

High Point led by single digits nearly wire-to-wire in the first game, but I like how the Bulldogs finished up in the box score. They were 14-of-24 at the rim, while High Point was just 7-of-18. Both teams shot 33.3% from 3, but it was a 3-of-19 performance from the mid-range that doomed the Bulldogs, as High Point was 6-of-15. Also, the Panthers had a free throw advantage, making 10 more free throws in the game.

In conference play, UNC Asheville is first in eFG% offense and eFG% defense per Bart Torvik. They are second in 3P% and 2P% defense. They lead the conference in 3P% offense. Meanwhile, High Point is sixth in eFG% offense and fifth in eFG% defense. Their shooting numbers on offense and defense aren’t as good as Asheville’s and the Bulldogs have shot 42.7% from 3 in their four home conference games and 58.3% on 2s.

The Bulldogs are also shooting 84.9% from the FT line in those games. These two teams rank third (High Point) and 12th (Asheville) in FT Rate. Home whistles are usually a little more generous as well.

High Point has also played the ninth-ranked strength of schedule in conference play and UNC Asheville has played the fourth-toughest. I trust their stats a little more as a result and think they get the big home win here.

Pick: UNC Asheville +2

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Winthrop Eagles (-9, 143.5)

6:30 p.m. ET

Another Big South contest, this time in South Carolina, as Charleston Southern takes on Winthrop in Rock Hill. This is exactly the time of game I hope to find when I’m looking to take a sizable favorite and that’s what Winthrop is in this spot.

The Eagles have an 18.8% TO%, which is about the only thing that has held their offense back. They’re well above the national average in 2P% and a top-100 offense shooting 3s. They’re also No. 1 in the nation in FT Rate. They have a shot share on Close Twos of 45%, which ranks in the top 20.

Meanwhile, Charleston Southern’s shot share on Close Twos of 29.2% ranks in the bottom 25 per Torvik. Winthrop’s offensive efficiency has been dragged down by that aforementioned TO%, but Charleston Southern is 341st in the nation in TO% defense. So, Winthrop should get a ton of chances at the rim in this one.

The Eagles defense is 20th in the nation in 3P%, so I’m not sure Charleston Southern will find much success there. The Buccaneers take a lot of mid-range jumpers, which is not a sound offensive strategy in my mind and a big reason why they are 291st in eFG% offense. Winthrop has been a little disappointing in league play, but I like them to have a big performance tonight against the Buccaneers.

Pick: Winthrop -9

USC Upstate Spartans at Longwood Lancers (-7, 138.5)

7 p.m. ET

What the hell, let’s make it a trio of Big South basketball tonight. USC Upstate and Longwood meet in Farmville, Virginia, so it’s a bit of a hike for the boys from Spartanburg, but they’re playing some pretty decent basketball right now.

While these two teams look pretty different in the full-season stats, they are pretty similar in conference play. USC Upstate is fourth in eFG% offense and first in the conference in 2P%. They are seventh in eFG% defense and have had some issues defending both 2s and 3s, but their 2-point efficiency on offense and the slow tempo of their games has allowed them to hang in there more often than not. That was true of their 73-71 win against Longwood back on Jan. 17.

Longwood is ninth in eFG% offense and ninth in both 2P% and 3P%. With nine teams in this conference, that’s not where you want to be. The Lancers are also eighth in eFG% defense and eighth in 2P% defense. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 36% from 3 while shooting just 28.9% themselves.

Both teams play at similar tempos. USC Upstate played a much harder non-conference schedule, which has had an impact on their full-season numbers, and the Spartans have also played the second-ranked conference schedule, while Longwood has played the sixth-toughest per Torvik.

That doesn’t look like nearly as much of a mismatch as this line implies. I’m also not sure what happened, but 7-footer Szymon Zapala (10 PPG, 5.8 RPG) only played four minutes for Longwood in the loss to Charleston Southern last time out, so maybe there’s an injury situation there.

Pick: USC Upstate +7

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