College Basketball Best Bets Today:

We’ve got a healthy slate of games on Hump Day, with 95 Division I teams in action and 94 of them playing against each other. That leaves us with 47 matchups on the betting board and we run the gamut with the conferences in play, ranging from some big ones in the Big 12 and SEC to games well down the board in the Patriot League and Big South.

Something for everyone as we survey the board for January 15.

 

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Tracking sheet is here. 2023-24 for reference is here.

This article will run Monday-Saturday (not next week, see exception above). Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.

Shout-outs to Bart Torvik, Erik Haslam, and Ken Pomeroy, as those are my three primary resources for information when handicapping.

Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Furman Paladins (-4, 141.5)

7 p.m. ET

To the SoCon we go for ETSU and Furman. The Paladins are 14-3, but they are very much trending in the wrong direction right now. They’ve had problems shooting the basketball and major problems on defense over the last three games. Since opening conference play on New Year’s Day with a beatdown of Western Carolina, the Paladins have lost by 17 and 19 to UNC Greensboro and Wofford and also narrowly escaped The Citadel in overtime, one of the worst teams in the nation.

The road has been a bit unkind to ETSU this season, which is my major worry in this one, but this is a solid defensive team that has done a good job forcing turnovers. Their defensive numbers are a little bit skewed because they have five games with 1.200 points per possession or more allowed. Otherwise, they’ve been pretty strong in most of their other games.

Along with what should be an advantage in the turnover department, ETSU is a very strong offensive rebounding team. Furman is not a good rebounding team by comparison, so the Buccaneers should get some extra possessions that way as well. With Furman firing away from 3 on 51.5% of their shot attempts, I think we could see a high enough rate of empty possessions for the Bucs to cover the spread in this one.

Pick: East Tennessee State +4

Southern Illinois Salukis at Missouri State Bears (-4, 137)

7 p.m. ET

We have a very rare situation in this game. These two teams just played on Saturday, as Southern Illinois came away with a 10-point overtime win. The game landed 166, obviously a big jump from the total here of 136. The regulation total in that game was 144, as the game went to OT at 72-72.

The box score for that game is beyond fascinating. Southern Illinois had 39 shot attempts at the rim and cashed in on 22 of those attempts. They had six dunks in that game. There are nine teams in the nation with fewer than six dunks in games against Division I opponents per Torvik. The Salukis have a shot share of 45.9% on Close Twos and also had 19 offensive rebounds in that game.

These are two really bad defensive teams. Missouri State is 336th in eFG% defense and Southern Illinois is 322nd. Opponents are shooting 37% or better from 3 against both of them. Missouri State is actually a 36% 3-point shooting team this season and shot 37.9% on the road in Carbondale in the last game against this defense.

I anticipate that they could shoot better in this one. The last game had 28 combined offensive rebounds and 33 assists. Missouri State also had 19 turnovers, something that Southern Illinois used to their advantage. I think we see a higher-scoring game here as well. Southern Illinois should keep getting to the rim. Missouri State should have as much or more success from 3. 

The tempo may be a worry here with Missouri State’s slow pace, but Nagy should want to speed the game up after seeing how much success his team had getting to the rim in the first meeting and I believe the carrot of getting rapid revenge excites Missouri State into playing a little quicker.

Pick: Over 137

Rhode Island Rams at Loyola Chicago Ramblers (-3.5, 145.5)

9 p.m. ET

A late start in the Windy City with an 8 p.m. CT local tip features A-10 rivals Rhode Island and Loyola Chicago. It has been tough sledding lately for Rhode Island. In their four conference games, the Rams have mustered .858, .946, .893, and .924 points per possession. They’ve actually been really fortunate on defense that nobody has been able to shoot against them, firing away at just 20% from 3. As a result, the Rams are 2-2 in league play.

But, they just went to overtime with an objectively bad Richmond team on Saturday in overtime. Part of the problem for Rhode Island is that David Green is out with a shoulder injury and David Fuchs, the team’s leading rebounder, has also missed the last couple of games. Fuchs is a 52% shooter from the floor and Green is second on the team with 15 PPG and he fills the stat sheet in other areas, including a 42.4% 3P%.

The Rams are shooting just 24.4% from 3 in league play to this point. Javonte Brown played a career-high 42 minutes in that OT loss, as Archie Miller tries to find something to be excited about with his rotation. Brown, a 7-footer from Western Michigan, only had six points to go with his 12 rebounds. This Rams crew doesn’t have a lot of offense right now outside of Sebastian Thomas.

Loyola Chicago is coming off of an abhorrent performance against Saint Joseph’s in a 36-point loss. The Hawks were 18-of-33 from 3, a feat that Rhode Island is highly unlikely to replicate. The Ramblers started the season 8-0 and have gone just 2-6 since, as they’ve ramped up the competition a bit.

I think this is a good matchup for them with the Rams walking wounded, though. The Ramblers have a Rim & 3 Rate of more than 83%, so I’m in favor of that, especially because I think they can get to the basket without Green and potentially Fuchs, plus they should have more open looks on the perimeter. Also, they’re at home. Five of Loyola’s six losses have come in road/neutral settings.

Pick: Loyola Chicago -3.5

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