Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, May 7 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Awesome Ruta (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Awesome Ruta
2. Eye Dee Kay
3. Trusty Rusty
Suppose this will be bad, like a two-horse race between AWESOME RUTA and EYE DEE KAY. Awesome Rudy is at base the “better” horse. He also has much longer-term substance and, to me, seems far more likely to repeat his most recent race than Eye Dee Kay. The latter was super primed and ready for his best first time off the break last out. I’m a little skeptical. He runs right back to that. TRUSTY RUSTY’s only misstep in the 12 line past performances came in his one start during that sequence without Lasix. Top race to top race at this moment in time I don’t think he can beat either of the top two but one might argue he’s even more likely to run to the recently established form.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Show Me the Munny
2. Go for Rocket
3. Pampered Prince
With SHOW ME THE MUNNY, I look at it like – okay, we found his level (this one – $30k maidens – put blinkers on to good effect – now let’s get him right and ready, run him at the distance where we think he might be best (this is the part I’m least certain about), and see where we get. Think he’s the best value. GO FOR ROCKET, an obvious MSW dropping type, $250k sales purchase whom they’ve tried on different surfaces to no great effect. Dirt is not one of those surfaces. – and that’s one of two new things here, the other being blinkers. Seems like too much of a guessing game at the expected price. PAMPERED PRINCE by contrast cost 50K and one might imagine there was a two race plan hatched – sprint MSW, route $30k maidens. Clearly would need to improve, but that seems reasonable.
Second Race
1. Single Dot Yaht
2. My Noble Knight
3. De’ Medici
I have commented in this space a couple times recently about trainer R Crichton’s blockbuster 2026 season. The win percentage has even risen a point since I last mentioned it. Looks like they already pretty much got out on SINGLE DOT YAHT thanks to the first off claim win. He’s down to his lowest level since being claimed but is only 5K below the claim price. I think he’s entered with strong intent. Will never get back to the career peak, but if you use that as a guide to his range of capability, it’s easy to see him running fast enough to win. MY NOBLE KNIGHT was a Derby week scratch from what might’ve been a tougher spot. They’re searching for the right level now that he’s out of starter ranks. The one start blinkers off experiment comes to a quick halt. He’ll clearly get bet. DE’ MEDICI looks from here like a well-meant dropper. Got a break after he failed to handle TP Tapeta. Just seems like his résumé is quite a bit flimsier than the top pick’s.
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Third Race
1. Mischievous Richie
2. Gypsy Art
3. Ice Wolf
MISCHIEVOUS RICHIE needs a couple scratches to draw in, but multiple scratches are the rule not the exception these days on this circuit. Year after year this barn posts elite win percentages with first-time starters. This one is by a big-named stud and out of an excellent race mare. I’d expect him to run to those flashy works. Unfortunately, that’s the only horse I feel at all solid about in this race. GYPSY ART has so far not lived up to promise and the trouble he had last time was not especially compromising. His two-year-old baseline is pretty high though. He wouldn’t need to take much of a step forward second race off the long layoff to beat this bunch. I’m not worried about the layoff with ICE WOLF. He just doesn’t have that quick-twitch acceleration of a truly capable turf sprinter, which is why, presumably, he had some route tries. I do expect him to run his race and be at least somewhat competitive.
Fifth Race
1. Llamp
2. Noroomformischief
3. Pedital
Not sure why LLAMP would not be a very likely winner of this race. My thinking is they gave her the turf try last out at Keeneland just to make sure they weren’t missing anything, and the reason they did that is she trains and acts like a horse with some ability, just not enough to win a maiden special weight on this circuit. $30K? That should work. NOROOMFORMISCHIEF did not run a step at Keeneland in her comeback race. Sometimes when horses run this poorly, and they are entered back on pretty good time, it’s best to just ignore the dud. Her two-year-old form says she absolutely can get in the mix at this level. It’s a little interesting they don’t give PEDITAL one look on grass before dropping out of straight maidens given the way she ran last summer at Ellis. That said, this is a 9K auction buy who could easily improve second start of the break and contend.
Sixth Race
1. Pitkin
2. Higgins Boat
3. Pineland
PITKIN found his home on turf over the winter at Gulfstream and appears to have the ideal running style for this race. He’d be a more confident selection if there had not been some interruptions in the breeze pattern, though that may have only been related to leaving CD and going to train over synthetic at Skylight. And that switch in base may be totally benign, and it makes sense with a turf horse; I wonder if there were other motivating factors as well. HIGGINS BOAT obviously is plenty fast enough for this race, but I wonder if he could go off lower than his morning line, odds, and I have concerns. He did run close to his peak, at least at this stage of his career in the last two starts, and one wonders if he can sustain that. Also, I know that this horse is quite tricky to train in the morning, and he is on a barn change now. Higgins Boat likes to go forward but doesn’t have all that much speed, and it’s not out of the question that rail-drawn PINELAND could make the lead. It has not been linear, but he has consistently improved over his last 10 starts and may yet have more to give.
Seventh Race
1. Little Bit Angel
2. Sutura
3. Mighty Nora
LITTLE BIT ANGEL brings along and well spaced workout pattern to her career debut, including a couple quick drills on dirt. She has a good draw for her first-time starter where she can stay in the clear and out of traffic. The barn is capable with first timers. I would like SUTURA more on turf than dirt. She closed good ground in her grass race, but has been pace and fade in the two on dirt, and I don’t trust her to finish the job at a short price. 7 furlongs and a Sharp winner proved much too much for MIGHTY NORA at Keeneland. Even under these more suitable circumstances, she’s still the same grinding sprinter with little to no upside.
Eighth Race
1. Raiding Party
2. Good Family
3. Go to Girl
I’m sure RAIDING PARTY will be all the rage with the betting public. She has all the attributes of a short-priced favorite – a Keeneland win in her lone start and a trainer who excels with this type of horse coming off a layoff. She might be the wrong race, but I’m not trying to beat her. GOOD FAMILY won her second start with quality, I suppose, in the same ballpark as the top pick’s, but top to bottom I find that fairgrounds, turf route maiden division to be a little suspect year after year. I expect her to come with a run and raise competitively, but feel like the other horse has more talent. GO TO GIRL is stuck on the also eligible list, but that doesn’t matter for these purposes because she’s taken here as the top selection on dirt.
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