College Basketball Bets
All day basketball from morning until night is going to be the story just about every Saturday and that’s the case on November 15 with a busy day of college hoops. We have 73 games today, some of which had already started by the time I got to my desk after catching up on some much needed sleep. But, my goal on Saturdays is to have games that start around 4 or 5 p.m. ET or later to use for the article in the interest of lead time.
It does cut down the card a bit, but it’s only fair, especially at this time of the year when the handicapping process is a bit more intensive because there are so many new things about all the teams.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Duquesne Dukes at Villanova Wildcats (-10.5, 150.5)
8 p.m. ET
Duquesne goes across the Keystone State from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia to take on Villanova. The Dukes are a much bigger, much more physical team this time around for Dru Joyce, who was LeBron James’ teammate at St. Vincent-St. Mary HS in Akron. The first season was a pretty big learning curve for Joyce and the Dukes coming off of a NCAA Tournament appearance in Keith Dambrot’s final season.
Dambrot and LeBron always had a good relationship, even though James didn’t go to Akron or even go to college. Joyce and LeBron obviously have a great relationship. I can’t help but think the NIL is getting a little help these days. Duquesne, despite a 13-19 record, finished in the top 135 for Torvik last season, so this was a decent team with something to build on for this season.
The Dukes haven’t played anybody of consequence really, but they are 3-0 and have been outstanding inside the arc, shooting 68% on 2s. They have struggled from 3 and that will need to be better in this game against Villanova, but the Wildcats have largely won by margin early in the season because of how they’ve dominated on the offensive glass. They probably won’t do that to the same degree against the Dukes.
Villanova lost in a neutral setting to BYU, despite making 10 3-pointers. They crushed Queens and Sacred Heart after that, where they had the huge ORB% advantages. Like I said, I think Duquesne’s physicality and their talent level is enough of a step up for the Dukes to keep it close.
Pick: Duquesne +10.5 (-112)
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Omaha Mavericks (-8.5, 155.5)
8 p.m. ET
The Mavericks are out for revenge here, as they had a tremendous season last year, but it got off to a slow start. Southern Utah won 79-73 on Nov. 16 in Cedar City. Now they’ll go to Nebraska for the rematch.
This is a SUU team that I’m not very fond of and haven’t been under Rob Jeter, who was at Western Illinois prior to getting the SUU job. Last season, the Thunderbirds allowed a 45.9% shot share on Close Twos, one of the 10 highest marks in the country. They sell out to prevent 3-point shots, but then have major holes defending on the interior. Top inside defender Brock Felder transferred to Seattle. Isaiah Cottrell and Jaiden Feroah will have that responsibility now and Feroah is stepping up in class here after playing at Holy Cross in the Patriot League.
Omaha has had a rough start to the season with games against Murray State, Abilene Christian, and Colorado State. This is an enormous step down in class. They’ve been good enough on offense, but have had major issues on defense. Along with not protecting the rim well enough on defense, Southern Utah doesn’t get there on offense. They were 303rd in shot share on Close Twos and had one of the 10 highest shot shares on mid-range jumpers, while not shooting many 3s.
This team is the antithesis of present-day basketball from an analytics standpoint. I like Omaha here in their home opener to celebrate the reigning Summit League champs and to get on the board with their first win, as they did return a good amount of production.
Pick: Omaha -8.5 (-112)
Utah Valley Wolverines (-4.5, 157.5) at Fresno State Bulldogs
10 p.m. ET
It has not been a good start to the seasons for the Mountain West, including a home loss by the Bulldogs to USC Upstate. This is another one of those shot selection handicaps for me. Fresno State did get to the rim a fair amount last season for first-year head coach Vance Walberg, but they only shot 53% on those attempts. They allowed a 64.4% FG% on Close Twos. They also didn’t shoot the 3 well, while allowing a 43% 3P Rate.
Meanwhile, Todd Phillips’ Utah Valley team had a 47.9% shot share on Close Twos, which was the eighth-highest in the nation. They didn’t shoot a lot of 3s, but they are better equipped to do that now, with UCF transfer Tyler Hendricks, who shot 36.4% from 3 last season, and Noah Taitz, who shot 41% at Loyola Marymount in limited action.
The Wolverines got smashed by Boise State in the Broncos’ first game after their embarrassing loss to Division II Hawaii-Pacific. Utah Valley has played two lower-division teams and crushed both of them, but I have to think that they’re looking forward to this Fresno State matchup as another crack at a Mountain West opponent.
Fresno State’s only non-conference wins last season came against teams that were ranked 350th, 356th, 318th, and 295th by Torvik at the time that the games were played. Utah Valley is a legitimate WAC contender, especially without Grand Canyon in the conference.
Pick: Utah Valley -4.5 (-112)
