College Basketball Bets
Last night’s college basketball slate was quality over quantity. Tonight’s college basketball slate presents us with both, as we have 54 games overall, including some very good matchups between high-major teams. We’ve also got a wide variety of conferences in play, as we have SEC, A-10, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, American, Sun Belt, Missouri Valley, Conference USA, Mountain West, Big South, SoCon, Ohio Valley, Summit League, Horizon League, and Patriot League games.
Something for literally everyone on this “box of chocolates” card. Our first tip-off is at 5 p.m. ET with Furman and Chattanooga and our final tip-off is Grand Canyon vs. Boise State at 11 p.m. ET. It’ll be a good night for multi-view and maybe a nice bourbon to wind down this evening.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Winthrop Eagles (-6.5, 165.5)
6:30 p.m. ET
A high-scoring affair is expected in Rock Hill tonight, as Charleston Southern and Winthrop come together for some Big South action. Winthrop sits 78th in adjusted offensive efficiency per Torvik, but it’s important to know how they’ve gotten there. The Eagles are 16th in the nation in TO%. Nothing hurts efficiency metrics more than turning the ball over and they’ve also been good at pulling down offensive rebounds and getting to the free throw line.
However, they are 200th in the nation in 2P% and 189th in 3P%. There are things that they do well on offense, but shooting the basketball isn’t really one of them. When you pair that with a defense that ranks 338th in adjusted efficiency, you see how this team is 9-8 despite that top-80 offensive ranking.
Charleston Southern’s turnover numbers aren’t as good, as they have one of the nation’s lowest TO% on defense, but that doesn’t really matter to me here because Winthrop doesn’t turn it over anyway. What does matter to me is that the Buccaneers are 31st in the nation in eFG% defense, holding opponents to just 45.1% on 2s and 32% on 3s. They’re focused on getting the defense set up in the half-court and contesting a lot of shots.
On the flip side, Winthrop is 260th in 2P% defense at 54.3% and 306th in 3P% defense at 36.7%. The Bucs are shooting 35.2% from 3 and 54% on 2s, so all of their shooting numbers are clearly better than Winthrop’s. They’ve also been pretty good on the defensive glass and that could keep Winthrop from getting the second-chance opportunities that others have surrendered.
Both teams have played terrible schedules, so I don’t have any worries there about the numbers adjusted for quality of opponent or anything. Charleston Southern just does a lot of things better than Winthrop and I’ll take the points as a head start.
Pick: Charleston Southern +6.5 (-105)
Stanford Cardinal at Virginia Tech Hokies (-4.5, 148.5)
7 p.m. ET
Well, it didn’t work out yesterday, as Syracuse played their first true road game and beat Georgia Tech, but maybe this angle will work out better. Stanford has played one true road game this season and it was 49 minutes away at San Jose State. They’ve played neutral-site games in Palm Springs and Phoenix. So, it’s January 7 and this is the second time that they’ve left the state of California.
This time, unlike last night, the Cardinal are traveling across three time zones instead of just flying from Syracuse to Atlanta. I really do think that the Cardinal are a solid team, but the Virginia double has to come as a bit of a shock to the system here in this one.
This is another handicap like the previous one. Stanford has a 21% TO% on defense that ranks 27th, so they are 61st in adjusted defensive efficiency per Torvik. However, they rank 155th and 159th in 2P% and 3P% defense, respectively. The Hokies have a 14% TO% on offense, so they don’t really turn the ball over. And even if Stanford can turn them over at a higher rate, it likely won’t be over 20%. Similarly, Stanford is 88th in adjusted offensive efficiency due to a lot TO%. They are 238th in 2P% and 153rd in 3P%, while Virginia Tech is 146th and 99th, respectively.
So, the Hokies, who don’t really turn the ball over, are the better shooting team and are at home in this one. I think it’s also worth pointing out that Stanford has had major problems finishing at the rim this season, posting just a 53.6% FG% on Close Twos. They’re 73rd in ORB%, so they’ve had second-chance opportunities. Now that they’re into ACC play, I don’t think they find the same rebounding success, so there are some regression signs in the profile as well.
For the late-game situations, Ben Hammond is an 84.4% FT% shooter and Tobi Lawal (75.8%) is listed as probable to return after missing nine straight games.
Pick: Virginia Tech -4.5 (-115)
FIU Golden Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-1.5, 147.5)
7 p.m. ET
Let’s head to Alabama and this Conference USA clash between FIU and Jacksonville State. This will be a fascinating contrast of styles, as FIU ranks 30th in the nation in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Jacksonville State is 338th. We’ll see if FIU can force the issue and speed up the Gamecocks. If they can, the Panthers’ 20% TO% on defense is likely to play a big role in this game.
The Panthers are shooting nearly 5% better on 2s and nearly 2% better on 3s in this game, so Jeremy Ballard should want to push the tempo because of their shooting advantages on each possession. Jacksonville State has been solid on defense, sitting 72nd in eFG%, while FIU is 239th. Conversely, FIU is 135th in eFG% on offense and Jacksonville State is 275th.
So both teams are very, very different. The one similarity is that both teams get to the rim a lot, but FIU is definitely bigger down low and should have the offensive rebounding edge in this one. Because of their tempo and style of play, they’ve been really poor on the defensive glass, but I do think they could improve there if this is a game where Jacksonville State takes a lot of time to penetrate down low and FIU players are congregated at the rim.
The Gamecocks are shooting just 65.5% at the free throw line, while the Panthers are shooting 68.3%, so neither team profiles well there in a close game, but FIU’s three best players are shooting 73.9%, 70.7%, and 86.3% if we get into those late-game situations where those points really matter. Jacksonville State’s best players are all 64.8% or lower at the stripe.
Pick: FIU +1.5 (-115)
