College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Monday, February 9.
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4:00 PM Eastern
St. Francis PA Red Flashes vs. Chicago State Cougars
Chicago State’s biggest weakness is inside, ranking 363rd nationally in 2-point shooting percentage on offense and 365th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage on defense. However, St. Francis PA has failed to take advantage of interior opportunities themselves, ranking 350th in 2-point shooting percentage. Chicago State is a better shooting team than their overall 32.3% would indicate, as injuries during non-conference play skewed those numbers, and those reinforcements have helped the Cougars shoot 35.8% from 3-point range in conference play. Chicago State also has a significant edge at the free throw line, ranking 72nd nationally at 75.6%, while St. Francis PA is 258th at 70%. Defensively, St. Francis PA also ranks 268th in free throw attempts allowed per opponent field goal attempt.
Pick: Chicago State -1.5
Greg’s Handicap: Chicago State -4.5
6:30 PM Eastern
Xavier Musketeers vs. St. John’s Red Storm
This game should be played at a fast pace with St. John’s ranking 38th nationally in possessions per game and Xavier 61st. St. John’s does a strong job cutting down clean possessions, ranking 25th in turnovers per possession generated on defense and 17th overall in points per possession allowed at home. Xavier has struggled to execute offensively inside, ranking 272nd in 2-point shooting percentage and 193rd overall in points per possession. St. John’s offense has also been less efficient at home, averaging fewer points per possession at home than away, ranking 120th at home compared to 15th on the road.
Pick: Xavier vs. St. John’s Under 163
Greg’s Handicap: Total 159.5
7:00 PM Eastern
Prairie View Panthers vs. Florida A&M Rattlers
Prairie View looks to push the tempo, ranking 14th in possessions per game, while Florida A&M ranks 112th in a game that should feature a high volume of turnovers. Prairie View ranks 51st in turnovers per possession generated and Florida A&M 59th, as both teams gamble defensively and become vulnerable from the perimeter. Florida A&M ranks 258th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, while Prairie View checks in at 309th.
Pick: Prairie View vs. Florida A&M Over 147.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 153.5
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Indiana State Sycamores
This game should feature plenty of possessions with Southern Illinois ranking 66th in possessions per game and Indiana State 92nd. Southern Illinois has struggled shooting the ball, ranking 336th in free throw shooting percentage at 67.2% and 362nd in road 3-point shooting percentage at 25.2%, but they lean into that weakness by ranking seventh nationally in percentage of shots taken inside the arc. They face an Indiana State defense that ranks 155th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and 234th in defensive rebound percentage. On offense, Indiana State ranks 25th nationally in 2-point shooting percentage, while Southern Illinois is 166th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage on defense.
Pick: Southern Illinois vs. Indiana State Over 144.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 149.5
Central Arkansas Bears vs. North Alabama Lions
Central Arkansas ranks 174th overall in points per possession allowed, with their biggest weakness coming inside, where they rank 343rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. North Alabama’s offense has failed to execute all season, ranking 302nd in points per possession and 287th in 2-point shooting percentage. Central Arkansas ranks 139th in points per possession offensively, but that drops to 256th away from home in a game North Alabama will try to slow down, ranking 297th in possessions per game.
Pick: Central Arkansas vs. North Alabama Under 149.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 143.5
7:30 PM Eastern
East Texas A&M Lions vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
Stephen F. Austin has been one of the most complete defensive teams in the country, ranking 17th in points per possession allowed, while the offense has handled the little things well, ranking 86th in points per possession. Stephen F. Austin is 39th nationally in fewest turnovers per possession and 40th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.9%. East Texas A&M ranks 341st in points per possession on offense and is at a major disadvantage on the glass, with Stephen F. Austin ranking 71st in rebound percentage compared to East Texas A&M at 324th.
Picks: Stephen F. Austin -15.5 and Under 142.5
Greg’s Handicap: Stephen F. Austin -20.5 and Total 138.5
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs. Nicholls Colonials
UT Rio Grande Valley has some of the most extreme home-road splits in the country, ranking 83rd in points per possession away from home compared to 323rd at home. They face a Nicholls defense that thrives on chaos, ranking 12th in turnovers generated per possession. UT Rio Grande Valley has struggled to create second chances, ranking 262nd in rebound percentage, in a game that may feature limited possessions with UT Rio Grande Valley ranking 250th in possessions per game and Nicholls 191st.
Picks: Nicholls +2.5 and Under 146.5
Greg’s Handicap: Nicholls -1 and Total 141
8:00 PM Eastern
Belmont Bruins vs. Bradley Braves
Belmont has been outstanding defensively away from home, ranking sixth in points per possession allowed on the road, and their 42.5% 3-point shooting away from home ranks second nationally. However, Belmont has struggled with the little things, ranking 342nd in free throw shooting percentage at 66.7%, which drops to 65.6% away from home, and 290th in turnovers per possession on offense. That plays into Bradley’s strength, as the Braves rank 31st nationally in turnovers per possession generated on defense. Offensively, Bradley ranks 25th in turnovers per possession and 76th in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.7%.
Picks: Bradley +2.5 and Under 155
Greg’s Handicap: Bradley -1 and Total 153.5
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Drake Bulldogs
Valparaiso has struggled shooting the ball all season, ranking 344th in 2-point shooting percentage and 273rd in points per possession overall, but has been a solid defensive team, ranking 68th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 31.7% and 84th overall in points per possession allowed. Drake’s offense relies heavily on perimeter shooting, making 37.9% of its 3-point attempts at home, while ranking just 199th in 2-point shooting percentage. Neither team plays fast, with Drake ranking 205th in possessions per game and Valparaiso 248th.
Pick: Valparaiso vs. Drake Under 143.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 138.5
UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Charleston Cougars
Charleston’s offense is better than its current ranking of 145th in points per possession would suggest, as much of the rotation was injured during non-conference play. Even at full strength, Charleston has struggled shooting from the perimeter, ranking 353rd in home 3-point shooting percentage at 28.6%. The Cougars are also at a major disadvantage on the glass against UNC Wilmington, which ranks 10th nationally in road rebound percentage. UNC Wilmington has used that edge to play slow, defensive-minded games, ranking 60th in points per possession allowed and 316th in possessions per game.
Picks: UNC Wilmington +1.5 and Under 149.5
Greg’s Handicap: UNC Wilmington -3.5 and Total 141.5
Delaware State Hornets vs. NC Central Eagles
This game has all the makings of a slog. Delaware State ranks 365th out of 365 teams in points per possession, but defensively excels at limiting clean possessions, ranking 19th in turnovers per possession generated. The Hornets also rank 281st in possessions per game. NC Central plays at a similarly slow pace, ranking 256th in possessions per game, and has struggled offensively, ranking 335th in points per possession, while ranking fifth nationally in turnovers per possession generated at home.
Pick: Delaware State vs. NC Central Under 134.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 131
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Evansville Purple Aces
Illinois State has been a lockdown defensive team, ranking 27th in points per possession allowed. Evansville has struggled mightily on offense, ranking 344th in points per possession and 338th in turnovers per possession. The Purple Aces are also dealing with Connor Turnbull being limited due to injury, further hurting an offense that already lacks efficiency. That plays into an Illinois State defense that ranks sixth nationally in defensive rebound percentage, with opponents grabbing just 22% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.
Pick: Illinois State -9.5
Greg’s Handicap: Illinois State -13.5
