MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:10 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has had a rough start to the season, lasting just 11 innings in his three starts with 11 earned runs allowed with five strikeouts and seven walks while Guardians starting pitcher Tanner Bibee is also off to a rough start, posting a 6.38 ERA with two home runs per nine innings allowed, though much of that damage came on the road and going back to last season, Bibee was significantly sharper at home, posting a 3.22 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 5.17 ERA with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed away from home.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline -130
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -150
6:45 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals
Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has always had pretty big home and road splits, posting a 2.90 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings in his career in San Francisco with that ERA going up to 3.98 away from home and faces a Nationals lineup that entered Thursday fourth in scoring with 5.5 runs per game while Nationals starting pitcher Zack Littell had a 3.81 ERA last season but a 4.88 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and while his ERA this season is only a 4.20, he’s allowed five home runs in 15 innings for a 7.16 fielding independent.
Pick: Giants vs. Nationals Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.1
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Bubba Chandler has a relatively small MLB sample size with just 10 career appearances, but has pitched better than his 3.97 ERA would indicate, getting 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.56 fielding independent while Rays starting pitcher Nick Martinez pitches to quite a bit of contact, getting just 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings last season and 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings to begin 2026, but also does not hurt himself with walks, giving out just 2.2 walks per nine innings last season and a Pirates lineup that entered Thursday averaging 4.9 runs per game might be due for regression considering the team was last in scoring with 3.6 runs per game.
Pick: Rays vs. Pirates Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
7:05 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler has been dynamic since getting called up to the MLB level in 2025, posting a 2.85 ERA with a 3.00 fielding independent, allowing 0.8 home runs with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings while Royals pitcher Michael Wacha is pitching to a lot of contact, getting only 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings last season and while he has a really low 0.43 ERA through three starts this season, his 3.01 fielding independent points towards regression and the Royals offense is 29th in scoring away from home with 2.7 runs per game.
Pick: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +125
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 +106
7:15 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Both offenses last season were solid with the Tigers 11th in the league in scoring with 4.6 runs per game while the Red Sox ranked sixth with 4.8 runs per game and both enter this series below last season’s averages with the Red Sox averaging 4.3 runs per game, ranking 16th in the league, and the Tigers are 18th with 4.1 runs per game while starting pitcher Casey Mize enters Friday with a 3.94 ERA this season after having a 3.87 ERA with 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed last season while Red Sox pitcher Ranger Suarez has seen a dip in his strikeout numbers, posting a 5.02 ERA with just 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings this season.
Pick: Tigers vs. Red Sox Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.4
8:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Minnesota Twins
Reds starting pitcher Brandon Williamson owns a 5.28 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 5.3 walks per nine innings this season, but much of that was due to a bad first start of the season against the Pittsburgh Pirates, but has allowed just three runs across 10 2/3 innings across his last two starts while Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan has a 3.80 ERA this season, but a significantly lower 2.83 fielding independent with just one home run allowed across 21 1/3 innings in four starts and faces a Reds lineup that is last in the National League in scoring away from home with just over 3.1 runs per game while their bullpen ERA of 2.57 leads the league.
Pick: Reds vs. Twins Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.4
9:40 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics
The Athletics as a team have the worst home ERA in the American League at 6.47 while the White Sox bullpen is 26th in ERA at 5.69 and send Davis Martin to the mound for a start, who had a 4.10 ERA last season, but a 4.64 fielding independent with 6.6 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings while the lineup behind him is 29th in scoring with just under 3.2 runs per game while Athletics starting pitcher Aaron Civale is off to a nice start to the season with a 1.72 ERA, but his 4.24 fielding independent points towards regression, especially after last season he posted a 4.85 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -140 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -158 and Total 9.6
