Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark.
The Oaklawn Handicap – $1.25 million purse, six horses, 6:20 p.m. Central post time – reunites two of last year’s top 3-year-olds – Sovereignty and Journalism – for the first time since the Belmont Stakes, with White Abarrio entering off a strong second in the Pegasus World Cup. Aragona puts No. 1 White Abarrio on top; Beer goes with No. 3 Sovereignty, the 4-5 morning-line favorite.
Aragona’s top pick: White Abarrio
White Abarrio, trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. and with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, ran a strong second to his stablemate Skippylongstocking in the Pegasus World Cup last time out. Aragona made the case that the result understated how well the 7-year-old gelding ran. He drew a tough post, set up the race on his own off an honest pace, and battled to the wire while Skippylongstocking got a clean trip.
“Trips did make the difference in that race and it maybe cost White Abarrio the win,” Beer said.
What pushed Aragona over the top was what he has seen in the mornings.
“Getting the vibe watching one of his recent workouts that he’s sitting on one of his good races,” Aragona said. “And when he’s good, he’s really good.”
He also flagged the pace setup – the TimeformUS Pace Projector shows no designated speed in this field, and White Abarrio – not a natural front-runner – could find himself on the lead by default.
Beer’s top pick: Sovereignty
Sovereignty, the reigning Horse of the Year, makes his 4-year-old debut for trainer Bill Mott, with Junior Alvarado riding. He dominated Journalism in both their 2025 meetings, but both came at 1 1/4 miles, where Sovereignty’s ability to sustain a long closing kick was the margin.
Beer sees Mott’s decision to point him here as a signal of fitness.
“I’m going to say Mott has him pretty close to ready for this race,” Beer said.
Aragona watched the workouts closely and found reason for doubt. Earlier drills looked labored; the April 11 work was the sharpest of the lot.
“You wonder if maybe he’s reaching that peak fitness just as he’s coming into this race,” he said.
At 1 1/8 miles – where Sovereignty‘s 10th-furlong kick won’t be as decisive – Aragona sees the vulnerability. Both handicappers acknowledged the shorter distance as the factor most likely to close the gap between the two rivals.
The distance question: No. 5 Journalism
Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy and with Jose Ortiz riding, lost to Sovereignty twice in 2025 – but both defeats came at 1 1/4 miles, a trip where Sovereignty’s closing kick was at its most punishing. The 4-year-old colt is 2 for 2 at nine furlongs, and both handicappers pointed to the shorter distance as the reason this rematch sets up differently.
Aragona also noted that Journalism ran well fresh in the San Felipe last year, offering some confidence he can show up sharp off a layoff.
Beer was candid about his view of Journalism’s form after the Triple Crown.
“I’m not going to say he ran poorly in any of them. I didn’t think that he ran particularly well in any of them either.”
Both handicappers carry him third.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 1 White Abarrio
No. 3 Sovereignty
No. 5 Journalism
No. 6 Publisher
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 3 Sovereignty
No. 1 White Abarrio
No. 5 Journalism
No. 2 Liberal Arts
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
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