College basketball projections and best bets

Yesterday did not go well for my college hoops bets, as my men’s bets split 1-1 and my women’s bets even went 1-3. It’s not often that we go 33%, but it does happen to the best of us so we’re on to Thursday. Today’s slate is packed for both men’s and women’s, so we have ample opportunity to bounce back from yesterday in a big way. Follow me on X (@TShoeIndex) to get today’s women’s bets as I make them, and let’s cash some bets. Here are today’s projections.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.


These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring a few times per week on now that we’ve gotten through bowl season, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, January 18th:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.


Abilene ChristianTarleton State-5.4141.7
Albany (NY)Massachusetts-Lowell0.4151.8
Austin PeayNorth Alabama8.3140.4
Cal State BakersfieldUC Riverside5.5138.2
Cal State FullertonUC Davis-1.4138.0
Cal State NorthridgeUC Santa Barbara4.0151.7
CampbellWilliam & Mary-2.5138.8
Central ArkansasLipscomb-18.3150.2
Coastal CarolinaGeorgia Southern8.1152.5
College of CharlestonTowson9.8138.5
DelawareStony Brook9.9145.9
DenverNorth Dakota State2.4167.2
Eastern WashingtonWeber State-7.1145.6
ElonUNC Wilmington-4.9151.9
Florida AtlanticWichita State15.7151.5
Florida InternationalLiberty-13.9147.0
Grand CanyonUtah Valley14.9142.2
Green BayWright State-9.5150.2
HawaiiLong Beach State0.1150.1
IdahoIdaho State-3.0137.6
JacksonvilleQueens (NC)0.3155.9
James MadisonLouisiana-Monroe26.8147.8
Kennesaw StateNorth Florida1.3160.1
LindenwoodSouthern Illinois-Edwardsville-4.2135.6
Little RockSouthern Indiana2.2151.0
Loyola MarymountSan Francisco-11.5138.3
MaineMaryland-Baltimore County3.0152.6
MarshallOld Dominion5.4151.3
MemphisSouth Florida8.4153.3
Michigan StateMinnesota11.8140.7
Middle TennesseeUTEP-7.5128.4
MilwaukeeNorthern Kentucky-1.9155.3
Morehead StateTennessee-Martin8.6153.3
New HampshireNJIT7.1150.5
New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky0.6142.9
North Carolina A&TNortheastern-7.8150.9
North DakotaOral Roberts-2.7150.5
Northern ArizonaPortland State-6.9140.0
Northern ColoradoSacramento State2.6154.1
OmahaSouth Dakota State-7.4149.2
Oregon StateUtah-15.9148.6
PacificSanta Clara-17.2148.8
PortlandSan Diego-3.0151.1
SeattleStephen F. Austin-5.2144.5
South AlabamaTroy-3.2149.7
South DakotaSt. Thomas-3.1143.6
Southern UtahUtah Tech4.0154.5
StanfordWashington State-0.7147.5
Tennessee StateTennessee Tech12.2146.6
Texas-Rio Grande ValleyUT Arlington-9.8156.0
UC IrvineUC San Diego8.0140.1
UNC AshevilleWinthrop-5.0150.4


Coastal Carolina +2.5

FIU/Liberty Over 139.5


Abilene ChristianTarleton State14.0133.1
AlabamaLouisiana State-5.8145.3
Albany (NY)Massachusetts-Lowell14.6116.9
Appalachian StateCoastal Carolina10.9146.4
BellarmineNorth Alabama-3.3146.2
Boston CollegeWake Forest13.8137.2
Cal State BakersfieldUC Riverside-13.2124.1
Cal State FullertonUC Davis-7.0127.0
Cal State NorthridgeUC Santa Barbara-27.4130.8
Central ArkansasEastern Kentucky-2.6128.1
DenverNorth Dakota State-5.9129.6
Detroit MercyGreen Bay-22.4125.1
DukeVirginia Tech0.9134.9
Eastern WashingtonWeber State20.4127.7
Florida Gulf CoastQueens (NC)35.6128.8
Florida InternationalLiberty5.4134.4
Florida StateSyracuse-0.7154.6
Georgia SouthernJames Madison-4.1144.2
Georgia StateSouthern Mississippi-7.8139.5
Georgia TechNorth Carolina-1.3128.6
GonzagaLoyola Marymount23.3141.7
Grand CanyonUtah Valley14.7116.5
Houston ChristianNew Orleans-0.6121.8
IdahoIdaho State6.1116.3
Incarnate WordNicholls State4.9116.4
IonaSaint Peter’s15.5117.9
Kennesaw StateStetson-2.7112.1
LamarTexas A&M-Commerce15.9135.4
LindenwoodSouthern Illinois-Edwardsville-0.4153.2
Little RockSouthern Indiana-4.7122.4
MaineMaryland-Baltimore County17.0125.3
MaristMount St. Mary’s-1.1115.8
MarshallOld Dominion1.8135.4
McNeese StateTexas A&M-Corpus Christi-25.8143.1
MercerUNC Greensboro-2.0125.8
Miami (FL)NC State-11.3132.3
Middle TennesseeUTEP18.2135.7
Mississippi StateTennessee8.5145.4
Morehead StateTennessee-Martin5.4129.6
New HampshireNJIT4.9120.0
New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky-7.5124.2
North DakotaOral Roberts-9.8153.2
Northern ArizonaPortland State12.2147.3
Northern ColoradoSacramento State15.2120.6
Northwestern StateSoutheastern Louisiana-13.3117.6
Notre DameVirginia13.8145.7
OmahaSouth Dakota State-19.8145.3
PacificSan Diego2.7139.6
Penn StatePurdue16.6149.7
PepperdineSanta Clara-19.0121.9
PortlandSaint Mary’s (CA)10.3124.2
Purdue Fort WayneYoungstown State9.5123.4
SamfordWestern Carolina16.2120.3
SeattleStephen F. Austin-14.5143.7
South DakotaSt. Thomas8.5137.4
Southern UtahUtah Tech-4.5141.6
Tennessee StateTennessee Tech-4.5130.8
Texas StateTroy-1.3144.0
Texas-Rio Grande ValleyUT Arlington-5.9139.7
UC IrvineUC San Diego3.3113.4