College basketball projections and best bets

The grind of the college basketball season continues today after another massive weekend slate of games. Due to family obligations, I wasn’t involved with college hoops betting as much as I normally am for those big slates, but I’m back in full swing this week and hope to kick off this week with a winner or two. Unfortunately, today’s slate leaves a little to be desired, which is to be expected of a Monday slate at this point in the season. A quick record update: men’s basketball is sitting at 52-48-1, while my women’s record is 96-67, for a season total of 148-115-1(56%). Follow me on X (@TShoeIndex) for today’s women’s best bets.

Compare my odds to the college basketball odds (Vegas odds) and also take a look at the college basketball betting splits for additional info.

 

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These “Projections and Best Bets” pieces will be occurring a few times per week on VSiN.com now that we’ve gotten through bowl season, so buckle up and get ready to take advantage of having the T Shoe Index at your disposal from now on. 

As a refresher, the T Shoe Index (TSI) is my proprietary rating system that I use for college football, NFL, men’s and women’s college basketball, and WNBA. It is a tempo and opponent-adjusted rating that allows us to answer the question, “How many points would team A be expected to score and allow vs Team B”, based on a myriad of statistical factors. 

Here are the TSI projections for today, January 22nd:

How to read this sheet: the “TSI Projected Spread” is the projected point margin based on TSI ratings. If the number is positive, that indicates Team 1 is projected to win by that margin, if the number is negative, that indicates Team 2 is projected to win by that margin.

Men’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Alcorn StatePrairie View-0.1149.9
Arkansas-Pine BluffBethune-Cookman-0.4163.5
CincinnatiKansas-0.4146.0
ColgateLehigh9.9144.4
Florida A&MMississippi Valley State10.5138.6
HofstraStony Brook4.0145.1
Houston ChristianNew Orleans-3.2152.4
Idaho StateMontana State-5.2138.6
Incarnate WordNicholls State-4.9151.8
Jackson StateTexas Southern6.0140.0
LamarTexas A&M-Commerce9.4149.5
McNeese StateTexas A&M-Corpus Christi7.2139.4
MontanaWeber State0.9142.4
North CarolinaWake Forest9.2153.7
Northwestern StateSoutheastern Louisiana-14.2141.6

Bets:

Southeast Louisiana -5.5

Cincinnati +8.5

Women’s

TeamTeamTSITSI O/U
Alcorn StatePrairie View7.9120.0
Arkansas-Pine BluffBethune-Cookman9.6142.1
BaylorKansas State1.9131.0
ColgateLehigh2.3135.8
FloridaMississippi State-1.0142.3
Florida A&MMississippi Valley State5.8134.6
Idaho StateMontana State-2.8116.3
Jackson StateTexas Southern25.7122.9
MontanaWeber State10.6131.9
Seton HallSt. John’s (NY)8.7116.2
UCLAUtah-4.2148.8