Tuley: Tuesday Best Bets in NBA, NHL; Monday recaps, including NCAA title game


Tuesday Best Bets, Monday Recaps

Monday was mostly a buildup to the NCAA men’s basketball championship game. Oh, we had a little diversion with taking my son Maddux to his last Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice of the school year (the spring concert is Wednesday night) and our weekly trip to In-N-Out Burger.
But the day was all about my bet of San Diego State +8 vs. UConn (+7.5 as given out on VSiN) as I didn’t have any action in the NHL or MLB. Unfortunately, it wasn’t worth the wait despite the Aztecs hitting their first two 3-pointers for an early 6-2 lead. By the second TV timeout, UConn was already ahead 14-10 and quickly took control, leading by double digits most of the game.
San Diego State did give us a false sense of hope by pulling within 5 points at 60-55 with 5:19 to play, but UConn closed with a 16-4 run for the spread-covering 76-59 victory.
It was disappointing to go 0-2 with our last two plays of March Madness (we should have seen it coming with the change of the calendar to April for the Final Four), but glad to finish 10-7 ATS (58.8%) with our postseason tournament plays, so we can’t complain too much.
Let’s get to our daily recaps of all the major betting action on Monday (it was great to see the NBA take the day off to let all b-ball fans focus on the college title game), and then look for better Best Bets on Tuesday.


Monday Recaps

NCAA Men’s Tournament: No. 4 seed UConn beat No. 5 San Diego State 76-59 in the Championship Game on Monday night in Houston. The ViewFromVegas is the Huskies also covered as 7-point favorites, capping a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS record in March Madness (the game went Over the closing betting total of 131 points).

More NCAA Men’s Tournament: Favorites finished 42-20 SU and ended up slightly ahead at 31-30-1 ATS with 1 game closing pick-’em (Gonzaga-UCLA in Sweet 16). Unders still led 37-26 (58.7%), 40-27 (59.7%) if including the First Four games.

NBA took Monday off for college kids (ICYMI): On the season, favorites lead 771-388 SU with 16 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still hold the slimmest of leads at 568-566-25 ATS. Home teams lead 687-488 SU and 588-564-23 ATS (51.1%). In totals wagering, Overs have slim lead to 587-570-18 (50.7%).

MLB: Faves went 8-7 Monday with upsets by the Tigers (+210 in 7-6 win at Astros), Pirates (+135 in 7-6 win at Red Sox), Giants (+123 in 12-3 win at White Sox), Angels (+120 in 7-3 win at Mariners), Orioles (+120 in 2-0 win at Rangers), Royals (+118 in 9-5 win vs. Blue Jays) & Reds (+107 vs. Cubs). Road teams went 9-6. Overs dominated 13-1-1 with the push in Rays’ 6-2 win at Nationals (betting total of 8 runs). Lone Under was the Orioles’ 2-0 win at Rangers.

More MLB: After 5 days of the regular season, faves lead 38-26 with 1 game closing pick-’em. Home teams took a slim 33-32 lead. In totals wagering, Overs retook lead at 37-26-2 overall with Monday’s 13-1-1 (Unders led 25-24-1 entering the day).

NHL: Faves went 2-1 on Monday (32-8 the last 5 days) with lone upset by the Golden Knights (+118 in 4-3 wild shootout win at Wild). The Stars (-200 vs. Predators) and Kraken (-320 vs. Coyotes) both won and also easily covered -1.5 puck lines. Home teams went 2-1. Overs went 2-0-1 with the push in the Stars’ 5-1 win over the Predators with a betting total of 6 goals.

Tuesday NBA Best Bets

Spurs +18.5 at Suns: This is a “swagger play” as the Spurs snapped a 6-game losing streak with their 142-134 OT win at the Kings as 16-point underdogs on Sunday. The Suns are obviously the superior team but we saw double-digit dogs go 3-1 ATS on Sunday and this is just too many points to pass up in this situation even with Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell reportedly being out.

Blazers +18 at Grizzlies: This is a “mini-swagger play” as the Blazers snapped a 5-game losing streak with their 107-105 win at the Timberwolves on Sunday as 19.5-point dogs, the NBA’s biggest upset in the last 30 years, despite missing four starters including Damian Lillard. That certainly gives those backups a lot of swagger and again the spread is so way too high.

Tuesday NHL Best Bet

Sabres-Panthers 1P Over 1.5 -190 / Kraken-Canucks 1P Over -165 (parlay pays +145): Beware of books going to Over 2 with these teams that we’ve had success with this year. The Sabres are the No. 4 1P Over team at 48-27 and they combine with the Panthers to go 89-63 (58.6%). The Canucks-Kraken matchup looks even better as they’re the No. 1 and No. 7 1P Over teams, respectively, at 55-20 and 44-31 for a combined 99-51 (66%), though the early books have the Sabres-Panthers priced higher.