Longwood vs. Houston March Madness Preview and Prediction

In the No. 16 vs. No. 1 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Longwood Lancers face the Houston Cougars in first-round action.

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How to Watch Longwood vs. Houston

When: 9:20 pm ET on Friday, March 22nd

Where: FedExForum in Memphis, Tennessee

Watch: TNT

Odds for Longwood vs. Houston

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: Houston -22

Total: 129.5

DraftKings Betting Splits | Live College Basketball Odds | Longwood vs. Houston Matchup

South Region No. 16 Longwood Lancers

Longwood went into the Big South tournament as the fifth-seeded team, but the Lancers beat top-seeded High Point in the semifinals and then second-seeded UNC Asheville in the championship. It was a tremendous run for a team that didn’t show many signs of life throughout the season. Longwood is outside of the top 200 in offensive efficiency and barely cracks the top 175 in defensive efficiency. However, the Lancers somehow scored a combined 165 points in the final two games of the conference tournament. In order for Longwood to have any shot of doing anything in March Madness, that uncharacteristically hot offense will need to continue. And it will need to continue to be a group effort. Walyn Napper is a very good point guard for this team, but nobody on the Lancers is a nightly 20-point threat. Somebody else steps up every game. But Longwood has as tough of a first-round matchup as you can possibly get.

South Region No. 1 Houston Cougars

Houston is arguably the best defensive team in the nation, according to adjusted defensive efficiency ratings from Bart Torvik. Steve Makinen also has the Cougars second in our VSiN Power Ratings. Kelvin Sampson’s team is once again impossible to score on, and the Big 12 Coach of the Year will be hoping that’s enough for the Cougars to win it all. Sampson led Houston to the Final Four in 2021, marking the second time he’s been there in his career. But the 68-year-old is looking to finish the story now. The question is whether the Cougars have enough offensive weaponry to do that. Jamal Shead is an experienced floor general for this squad, and L.J. Cryer and Emanuel Sharp can both get hot. But Houston doesn’t crack the nation’s top 100 in 3PT% or 3P rate. At some point a situation will call on the Cougars to open things up and let ‘em fly.  

Longwood vs. Houston Preview & Prediction

Call it a conspiracy theory if you want, but it was my belief that Houston would get a sweetheart draw in the NCAA Tournament now that they reside in the Big 12. It is an annual tradition to see the mid-majors get screwed over in one way or another, but joining a power conference is a good way to gain more favor. Sure, the strength of schedule metrics and whatnot help, but Houston, who plays in the sixth-ranked media market in the nation, was going to get a little preferential treatment.

The 1 vs. 16 game is what it is no matter what, but Houston’s overall draw is decidedly easier than UConn’s and the easiest of any No. 1 seed in my opinion. That’s not to say that the Texas A&M/Nebraska winner is drawing dead or that any of the 4/5/12/13 seeds here could step up and play big, but it is set up well for Houston.

They also take on a conference champ in this one that had a 5-10 record in Big South play before getting hot at the right time to beat High Point in the regular season finale and then beat a good slate of Winthrop, High Point, and UNC Asheville to get the automatic bid. Since mid-February, Griff Aldrich’s club has turned it up offensively in a big way.

The Lancers are a cool story and we’ll see if they fare better than they did in 2022 with a better team that lost by 32 to Tennessee. That team at least ranked in the top 20 in 3P%. This one is around the national average.

The obvious concern with Houston here is covering a big number with the tempo that they play at, but this is really about analyzing the start of Houston’s path to the Final Four.

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