Today’s NBA Betting Trends:
The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, November 3, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* MEMPHIS is on an extended 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS run in head-to-head games versus Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs DET)
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 157-72 SU and 131-94-4 ATS (58.2%) (sub-system: 74-24 SU and 62-32-4 ATS (66%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at IND)
* NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 87-54-1 (61.7%) rate (sub-system: 50-23-1 to the Over (68.5%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-POR (o/u at 236.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* INDIANA is 12-14 SU and 5-20-1 ATS playing in 4th in 6 Days games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 vs MIL)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 42-33 SU and 42-32 ATS vs. teams in head-to-head back-to-back games since start of last season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+12.5 at NYK), MINNESOTA (-8.5 at BKN)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 45-37 SU and 49-31 ATS vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-4.5 at MEM)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 48-34 Over the total vs. teams in away-to-home back-to-back games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY OVER): DET-MEM (o/u at 235.5)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 190-240 SU but 245-177-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+12.5 at DEN)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 28-16 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): SAC-DEN (o/u at 235.5)
* UTAH is 19-6 Under the total playing in the away-to-away back-to-back games since Mar 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-BOS (o/u at 232.5)
* HOUSTON is 112-82 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-HOU (o/u at 224.5)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away games scenario are 14-27 SU and 15-25-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2DaysRest games over the last two seasons
* LA CLIPPERS is 23-16 SU and 10-29 ATS playing at home in the 2 Days Rest scenario since May 2021
System/Trend Match: 1 FADE of MIAMI, 1 FADE of LA CLIPPERS (spread at LAC -8.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 28-16 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since start of last season
* MIAMI is 14-3 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenarios since February 2023
Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in MIA-LAC (o/u at 226.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 164-61 SU and 135-89-1 ATS (60.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): WATCH FOR PORTLAND vs LAL (-3.5 currently*)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 35-118 SU and 61-87-5 ATS (41.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): INDIANA (+6.5 vs MIL)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 114-93 (55.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 227-179 (55.9%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 297-227 (56.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-NYK (o/u at 234.5), UTA-BOS (o/u at 232.5), SAC-DEN (o/u at 235.5)
UNDER – DAL-HOU (o/u at 224.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:
In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 34-6 SU and 29-11 ATS (72.5%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs DAL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 162-95 SU but 119-134-4 ATS (47%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 97-118 ATS (45.1%) mark when not playing the next day.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at IND)
Allowing 120+ points in a win has led to more high-scoring games
NBA teams off a previous day win but having allowed 120+ points have had their totals go Over at a 87-54-1 (61.7%) rate (sub-system: 50-23-1 to the Over (68.5%) when on the road next game) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-POR (o/u at 236.5)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favorite
NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 157-72 SU and 131-94-4 ATS (58.2%) (sub-system: 74-24 SU and 62-32-4 ATS (66%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-6.5 at IND)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 281-148 SU but just 181-235-13 ATS (43.5%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs MIA)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 305-238 SU but 243-285-15 ATS (46%) over the last seven seasons. The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 43-70-1 ATS (38.1%).
System Match (FADE ATS): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs DAL)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 334-284 (54%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DAL-HOU (o/u at 224.5), SAC-DEN (o/u at 235.5), MIA-LAC (o/u at 226.5)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 302-318 SU and 279-333-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs DAL)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(553) MILWAUKEE (4-2) at (554) INDIANA (1-5)
* Over the total is 11-2 in the last 13 of the MIL-IND divisional rivalry at Indiana
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIL-IND (o/u at 235.5)
(555) MINNESOTA (3-3) at (556) BROOKLYN (0-6)
* MINNESOTA is 12-3 ATS in the last 15 games versus Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-8.5 at BKN)
* Under the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the MIN-BKN series in Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-BKN (o/u at 226.5)
(557) WASHINGTON (1-5) at (558) NEW YORK (3-3)
* Over the total converted in all four matchups between the Wizards and the Knicks last season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-NYK (o/u at 235.5)
(559) UTAH (2-4) at (560) BOSTON (3-4)
* Under the total is 4-0 in the UTA-BOS non-conference set since 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-BOS (o/u at 233.5)
(561) DETROIT (4-2) at (562) MEMPHIS (3-4)
* MEMPHIS is on an extended 16-5 SU and 17-3-1 ATS run in games versus Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): MEMPHIS (+4.5 vs DET)
(563) DALLAS (2-4) at (564) HOUSTON (3-2)
* Favorites are on 7-1 SU and ATS run in the DAL-HOU in-state rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-12.5 vs DAL)
(565) SACRAMENTO (2-4) at (566) DENVER (3-2)
* Under the total is 5-1 in the SAC-DEN series since February 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-DEN (o/u at 235.5)
(567) LA LAKERS (5-2) at (568) PORTLAND (4-2)
* Favorites are on a 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS run in the last nine of the LAL-POR series
Trend Match (PLAY): PORTLAND (-3.5 vs LAL)
(569) MIAMI (3-3) at (570) LA CLIPPERS (3-2)
* LA CLIPPERS are 11-2 ATS in the last 13 matchups with cross-country foe Miami
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-8.5 vs MIA)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:
Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 87-90 SU but 102-73-3 ATS (58.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+12.5 at NYK)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:00 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the full 2024-25 season, the sample contained 1321 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority handle bettors were much more successful than majority number of bets groups on point spreads and totals, while both struggled on money lines. The full season performance by the majority handle on totals last year in the NBA was better than any other sport I have covered. In fact, these were the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 660-614 ATS (51.8%), -15.4 units – ROI: -1.2%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 618-645 ATS (48.9%), -91.5 units – ROI: -7.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 842-458 (64.8%). -123.18 units – ROI: -9.5%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 886-421 (67.8%). -137.95 units – ROI: -10.6%
– Majority handle on totals: 708-594 (54.4%). +54.6 units – ROI: +4.2%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 670-621 (51.9%), -13.1 units – ROI: -1%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 748-665 ATS (52.9%) over the last three seasons. This has produced a profit of +16.5 units and an ROI of 1.2%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. Remember, handle is the total amount of money on a game. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, UTAH, DETROIT, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 2+ seasons, that group produced a 352-298 ATS record (54.2%), good for +24.2 units of profit and an ROI of 3.7%. This lot of 650 games was only around 20% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 92-129 ATS (41.6%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -49.9 units for an ROI of -22.6%.
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last three seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been successful, as they are 395-348 ATS (53.2%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed a 51.2% success rate, they were about 2% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +12.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 2+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 494-413 ATS record, good for 54.5%. This is over a 3% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +39.7 units of profit and an ROI of 4.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK, SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 137-153 ATS, good for 47.2%. This is over a 4% drop off compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -31.3 units of loss and an ROI of -10.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1252-561 over the last three seasons but for -220.99 units and an ROI of -12.2%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 943-612 but for just -6.38 units and an ROI of -0.4%. This 11.8% disparity warrants fading ML majorities on home teams and at least considering ML majorities when they opt for road teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK ML, BOSTON ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML, PORTLAND ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in a NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last three seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 434-351, good for 55.3%, +47.9 units, and an ROI of +6.1% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-BKN, WSH-NYK, DAL-HOU, SAC-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 346-301 (53.5%) for +14.9 units and an ROI of +2.3% since January 2023.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-NYK, DET-MEM
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 176-126 (58.3%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +37.4 units of profit for 12.4%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-NYK
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+2.2)
2. INDIANA +6.5 (+1.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -10.5 (+3.9)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+1.5)
3. PORTLAND -3.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+6.3)
2. MEMPHIS +4.5 (+2.2)
3. DALLAS +12.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -10.5 (+4.1)
2. PORTLAND -3.5 (+2.1)
3. DENVER -12.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DAL-HOU OVER 224.5 (+1.0)
2. SAC-DEN OVER 235.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-BKN UNDER 226.5 (-3.9)
2(tie). DET-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-3.5)
MIA-LAC UNDER 226.5 (-3.5)
Today’s Top 2 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BROOKLYN +8.5 (+1.5)
2. INDIANA +6.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOSTON -10.5 (+4.3)
2. DENVER -12.5 (+2.8)
3. PORTLAND -3.5 (+1.8)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIL-IND UNDER 235.5 (-3.7)
2(tie). DET-MEM UNDER 236.5 (-3.6)
MIA-LAC UNDER 226.5 (-3.6)
