Michigan vs. Texas A&M March Madness Preview and Prediction
In the No. 5 vs. No. 4 matchup in the NCAA Tournament South Region, the Michigan Wolverines face the Texas A&M Aggies in second-round action.
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How to Watch Michigan vs. Texas A&M
When: 5:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 22nd
Where: Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado
Watch: CBS
Odds for Michigan vs. Texas A&M
(odds current at time of publish)
Spread: Texas A&M -1.5 (-110), Michigan +1.5 (-110)
Total: Over 140.5 (-110), Under 140.5 (-110)
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Michigan vs. Texas A&M Preview & Prediction
While Texas A&M comfortably handled its business in a win-and-cover against Yale in the opening round, Michigan struggled with UC San Diego. The Wolverines’ season-long turnover issues were a story in the narrow 68-65 victory, with Michigan coughing the ball up 14 times. The Wolverines also went 11-20 from the free throw line, and the two teams scored the same amount of points in the paint — despite Michigan starting two seven-footers. In the end, Dusty May’s team was able to survive — with some help from some pretty lopsided officiating — but they might not get as lucky against the Aggies.
If Michigan’s 19.9% turnover rate was a problem against the 36th-ranked defense in the nation (according to Bart Torvik), things aren’t going to look much better against the 10th-best defense. The Tritons are actually better about forcing turnovers than the Aggies, but Buzz Williams’ team can get in your grill and make you make mistakes. Texas A&M also has some legitimate size to combat the combo of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin, which is a luxury San Diego absolutely didn’t have. The Aggies are also good about defending the 3-point line, whether that’s preventing shots from going up or contesting the ones that do.
This is simply a matchup in which Texas A&M’s ability to defend could expose all of Michigan’s weaknesses. That makes it seem pretty plausible that the Aggies will win somewhat comfortably, but they don’t necessarily have to. If this game ends up being close late, there isn’t a player on the floor that can create offense like Texas A&M guard Wade Taylor IV. None of that is meant to be a dig at some of Michigan’s players. The Wolverines have some talent, with Wolf being a future first-round draft pick. But we just watched Michigan throw up all over itself in a close game against UC San Diego. And that came after a performance in which the Wolverines were able to hold in that vomit against Wisconsin. Well, Texas A&M might be the best defensive team Michigan has faced all season.
If you don’t trust the Aggies to create the offense they’ll need to win this one, that’s understandable. I would push back by saying that Texas A&M was better offensively from February on, but that’s a battle that could be hard to win — despite the fact that Torvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency numbers prove it. However, there should be something for everybody in this game, even if that’s the Under.
This total feels a little high for two defensive-minded teams, especially with the Aggies being 228th in adjusted tempo. You have heard it all week on VSiN live programming, but it’s easier to slow a team down than to speed one up. So, the Aggies should be able to win the battle in style of play here. Then, these teams will just do what they do best, which is fight like hell to stop the opponent from scoring. Michigan is coming off a game in which 133 combined points were scored, and that’s way up from the 59-53 rock-fight against Wisconsin. Those two games feel more like the one we’ll see against Texas A&M than some of the one-off shootouts we saw from Michigan this season.
Estimated Score: Texas A&M 72, Michigan 70
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