MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, June 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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1:05 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter has struggled this season with a 6.43 ERA, but his lower 5.18 fielding independent points toward positivity. Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara owns a 4.25 ERA with 1.1 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings allowed and is supported by a bullpen that ranks ninth in ERA at 3.52. He faces a Phillies lineup that is 24th in scoring with fewer than 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline +104 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -108 and Total 8.5
2:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Tigers starting pitcher Casey Mize has put together a nice start to the season with a 2.27 ERA and 2.41 fielding independent, allowing 0.4 home runs while recording 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings. Astros starting pitcher Peter Lambert has been a bright spot for Houston’s pitching staff with a 3.47 ERA and 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and faces a Tigers lineup that ranks 26th in road scoring with fewer than four runs per game.
Pick: Tigers vs. Astros Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1
3:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.55 ERA that appears due for regression, as he has a 4.08 fielding independent with 3.5 walks and 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that is sixth in road scoring with over 4.9 runs per game. Angels starting pitcher Sam Aldegheri has a 2.12 ERA this season but has logged only 17 innings, and his 3.86 fielding independent with 4.2 walks per nine innings is a concern, especially with support from a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.79.
Pick: Angels vs. Diamondbacks Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.6
6:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Blue Jays starting pitcher Max Scherzer appears to be completely washed, posting a 10.23 ERA in six starts this season with 3.7 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a lineup that ranks 27th in road scoring with fewer than 3.8 runs per game. Red Sox starting pitcher Jake Bennett has a 5.28 ERA with only 4.7 strikeouts per nine innings in his three MLB starts this season but benefits from being backed by a bullpen that ranks second in the league in ERA at 3.09.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -159
7:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodón has a 3.19 ERA in his six starts since coming off the injured list, but command remains an issue with 5.5 walks per nine innings. He faces a White Sox lineup that is seventh in scoring with nearly 4.7 runs per game. White Sox starting pitcher Anthony Kay has a 4.34 ERA but a higher 5.23 fielding independent with 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 3.7 walks and 1.4 home runs per nine innings. Since Aaron Judge went down with an injury, the Yankees offense has remained productive, entering Tuesday averaging 4.8 runs per game without him.
Pick: White Sox vs. Yankees Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.8
7:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher JR Ritchie owns a 3.82 ERA this season, but his 5.15 fielding independent with 7.6 strikeouts and 5.3 walks per nine innings points toward regression. Giants starting pitcher Robbie Ray has a 4.42 ERA but a higher 5.25 fielding independent with 1.7 home runs and 4.4 walks per nine innings overall. That rises to a 5.35 ERA with 2.3 home runs per nine innings allowed on the road. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks 19th in ERA at 4.35, while the Braves have the best bullpen ERA in the league at 2.82 and an offense that ranks fifth in scoring with 5.1 runs per game.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -138
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -152
7:45 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat has not been sharp this season, posting a 5.70 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 4.5 walks per nine innings. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams owns a 3.32 ERA with 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings and is supported by a bullpen that has a 3.16 ERA since May 1, which ranks eighth in the league.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +105 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -127 and Total 8.2
8:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs
While the wind will be blowing out early in the day, the forecast calls for it to shift and blow more inward during the evening and night hours. The Cubs give Javier Assad the start, and he owns a 3.99 ERA and 3.99 fielding independent. While he is getting only 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings, he is allowing just 0.9 home runs and 2.1 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Sean Sullivan has logged only three career MLB innings and has yet to allow a run. Overall, the Rockies are averaging 4.5 runs per game, but much of that is skewed by their 23-run explosion against the Athletics in Las Vegas earlier this season.
Pick: Cubs Run Line -1.5 +115 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -1.5 -113 and Total 8.8
9:40 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher George Kirby has pitched better than his 4.07 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.40 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs and 2.3 walks per nine innings allowed. Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish has a 4.30 ERA and 4.70 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 4.8 walks per nine innings while being backed by a bullpen that ranks 21st in ERA at 4.57. The Mariners bullpen owns a 3.46 ERA, which ranks seventh in the league.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -132
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -148
