SEC
The SEC tied its previous high from 2018 and 2023 with eight NCAA Tournament bids last season and had one of its teams reach the Final Four for the first time since 2019 (Auburn) as Alabama (2/1 to win SEC) advanced there for the first time in the history of the program. This year the Crimson Tide, a No. 4 seed last year, is expected to be at the Final Four, as Nate Oats’ club is ranked No. 2 overall in the AP Preseason Poll. They brought back three starters, including the SEC’s leading scorer Mark Sears, added impact transfer big man Clifford Omoruyi (Rutgers), and had the nation’s No. 2 recruiting class, including two McDonald’s All-Americans, per 247 Sports.
Perhaps, the Tide’s biggest competition to win the SEC is right there with them in the Yellowhammer State, as SEC Tournament champion Auburn (+350) returns four starters from a team that led the nation in effective FG% defense (43.7%), but was bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Bruce Pearl is seemingly always rumored for other jobs, but he’s still there.
Of course the biggest story of the offseason in the SEC was John Calipari being lured to Arkansas (15/1). Both parties had seemingly grown tired of each other at Kentucky, as Cal had a strained relationship with the administration and Big Blue Nation had grown restless not making a Final Four since 2015, despite NBA Draft lottery picks coming in and out of Lexington seemingly every year.
Kentucky (30/1) now turns to one of its own as Mark Pope, the captain of the Wildcats 1996 National Championship team, takes over a completely new roster as zero scholarship players return (three from last year’s team followed Calipari to Arkansas).
Tennessee (4/1) won the regular season SEC crown in 2024 and made just its second Elite Eight trip in program history, but the Final Four still eludes the Vols.
Texas A&M (18/1) could be the dark horse this season.
The two new SEC members are Texas (15/1), who fights Alabama for honors as arguably the most talented and experienced team in the league, and Oklahoma (75/1), who has failed to make the NCAA Tournament in Porter Moser’s first three seasons.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama – Basketball School? Nate Oats would say the answer is yes as the Crimson Tide, who led the NCAA in scoring (90.1 PPG), returns three starters and welcomes aboard one of the nation’s best recruiting classes.
SEC Preseason Player of the Year Mark Sears led the SEC in scoring (21.5 PPG) and also hit 44 percent of his 3s. He returns with two other starters – Latrell Wrightsell (8.9 PPG, 3 RPG, 44.7% 3pt), who is back healthy after late-season injuries, and Grant Nelson, who led the SEC at the rim offensively last season (69% FG). Rutgers transfer Clifford Omoruyi gives Alabama the rim presence they lacked last year and should help the Tide give up less offensive rebounds (31% – 277th nationally), which often led to easy baskets at the rim and too many fouls.
Alabama has it all from a roster standpoint and they play a high-octane style. The only question is if they can overcome bad shooting variance that can happen any night in the NCAA Tournament? If that answer is yes, there is no reason this team cannot cut down the nets in San Antonio.
Arkansas Razorbacks
After 15 years, John Calipari seemingly had enough of Kentucky and many in the Big Blue Nation had enough of him, so now he goes to another program with fertile ground steeped in tradition at Arkansas.
Trevon Brazile (8.6 PPG, 5.9 RPG) missed eight games with an ankle injury and is the lone returner for the Hogs. Cal did not come from Lexington by himself, though, as D.J. Wagner (9.9 PPG, 3.3 APG), Adou Thiero, and Zvonimir Ivisic (5.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 37.5% 3P%), joined three other signees originally committed to Kentucky. Arkansas also hit the portal to land Johnell Davis, the AAC Player of the Year and a member of FAU’s Final Four team, and Tennessee’s Jonas Aidoo (1.8 BPG).
As usual, Calipari had a top-end recruiting class, rated No. 3 per 247 Sports. Cal’s last team in Lexington led the SEC in overall shooting and 3-point percentage, but that team had two lottery picks in the backcourt with Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham. This group may be a little more old-school Calipari offense with more drivers than pure shooters. The Sweet 16, which Calipari has not reached since 2019, could be this group’s ceiling.
Auburn Tigers
The Tigers won the SEC Tournament Championship and 27 games last season, but were bounced in the first round by Yale. Bruce Pearl’s Tigers haven’t made the second weekend since 2019 when they were National Runner-Up.
Auburn should be a SEC title contender again with the return of two-way big man Johni Broome (16.5 PPG, 8.5 RPG). Auburn has arguably the deepest post rotation in the country for a team that led the nation in 2-point defense (42.9%), so they will gamble for steals because they can funnel to the rim with elite shot blockers down low.
Depth is always a major part of Pearl’s teams, as they love to run a variety of full-court pressures and you need plenty of bodies with the foul trouble that comes with it. The backcourt is relatively new with the addition of McDonald’s All-American point guard Tahaad Pettiford as well as Furman transfer JP Pegues and Georgia Tech transfer Miles Kelly, who both led their teams in scoring last season, along with the returning Denver Jones (9.1 PPG). Expect Auburn to contend for the SEC crown, but expectations will also be for a deeper run in March.
Florida Gators
The Gators returned to the NCAA Tournament last year after a two-year absence, only to bow out in the First Round with a wild 102-100 loss to Colorado. Perhaps they would have advanced further with the services of 7-foot-1 Micah Handlogten, but he broke his leg in the SEC Tournament and will miss this season.
Florida will not lack size, though, with 6-foot-11 Australian Alex Condon (7.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG) and 6-foot-11 Rueben Chinyelu of the NBA Academy Africa via Washington State. The Gators also have a freshman preferred walk-on in 7-foot-9 Olivier Rioux, who becomes the tallest man in the history of D-1 basketball.
Todd Golden, an excellent coach who got San Francisco in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large in 2022, installed an up-tempo (17th adjusted tempo) offense when he came to Gainesville and Walter Clayton Jr. (17.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG) is the man that makes it go. Will Richard (11.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) is a steady running mate. Alijah Martin was part of FAU’s Final Four team in 2023 and averaged 13 PPG and 5.9 RPG for the Owls last season. Florida should be just on the right side of the bubble to make a return appearance.
Georgia Bulldogs
The Bulldogs finished just 11th in the SEC for Mike White’s second season in Athens but played its best basketball towards the end of the season with a run to the NIT semifinals.
Asa Newell, who is the third-highest rated recruit in the history of the Georgia program (behind Anthony Edwards and Lou Williams), was the second-highest rated PF in the 2024 class and the five-star joins his brother Jaden.
To take that next step and return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over a decade, the Bulldogs have to shoot the basketball better, as they ranked 12th in the conference and 279th nationally (43%). Silas Demary Jr. (9.7 PPG, 3.8 RPG) should take a big leap in his sophomore season. A pair of Mount St. Mary’s transfers, Dakota Leffew (36.5% 3pt) and De’Shayne Montgomery (41% 3pt), will be counted on despite the step up in competition. Tyrin Lawrence (13.8 PPG at Vanderbilt) and Blue Cain (7.4 PPG, 2.5 RPG) will also see significant backcourt minutes.
Georgia is moving in the right direction and is adding talent to better compete in the SEC, but still may be a year away from returning to the NCAA Tournament.
Kentucky Wildcats
After a National Championship (2012), four Final Fours, 400+ wins, and 48 NBA Draft picks including 10 NBA All-Stars, John Calipari is done in Lexington after 15 seasons. Big Blue Nation now turns their lonely eyes to an alum as Mark Pope, captain of the 1996 NCAA Championship team, returns to Lexington to reverse the ‘Cats NCAA Tournament fortunes, as they have exited early each of the last three years. Pope was successful at Utah Valley and BYU and has a totally revamped roster that returns a “Blutarsky” (0.0) in terms of scoring.
The backcourt features veterans Kerr Kriisa and Lamont Butler, a terrific defender up top. Replacing the lost 3-point shooting punch of Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham, and Antonio Reeves are transfers Koby Brea (50% 3P%, Dayton), Otega Oweh (11.4 PPG, 38% 3P%, Oklahoma) Oklahoma, and wing Jaxson Robinson (14 PPG, BYU).
Kentucky does not have any first-round talent on this roster, but they do have a good veteran group that should defend better, as the Wildcats had their worst defensive efficiency ranking since 1997 last year. This roster is full of players that dreamed of playing at Kentucky, but were overlooked. They will be discounted, but do so at your peril because they will surprise this season.
LSU Tigers
The Tigers probably overachieved last season finishing a game over .500. Perhaps they can do it again, but Matt McMahon must squeeze everything he can out of this roster to do so.
Tyrell Ward (9.1 PPG, 2.3 RPG) and Mike Williams III (7.2 PPG, 2.2 RPG) return and are joined by Cam Carter (14.6 PPG), who started all 70 games at Kansas State the last two seasons, but returns home to Louisiana. Jordan Sears led the Ohio Valley in scoring (21.6 PPG) at UT-Martin last year. Freshman Curtis Givens III and Richmond transfer Dji Bailey, who was voted the Most Improved Player in the A-10 last season, will add depth.
LSU made 256 threes last season and will likely need to make and take more. They should have plenty of opportunity to do so in McMahon’s motion offense. McMahon took Murray State to three NCAA Tournaments and is a good coach, but it will take more time in Baton Rouge for him to get LSU back to where Will Wade had it before recruiting violations led to his termination in 2022.
Ole Miss Rebels
It was only natural that Year 1 of Chris Beard was going to involve a transition. The Rebels won 20 games, yet their defense and rebounding, trademarks of Beard’s teams at all his stops (Texas, Texas Tech, and Little Rock), was poor. Ole Miss ranked 359 out of 362 teams in terms of opponents’ ORB%.
Four starters return, including point guard Jaylen Murray (13.8 PPG, 4 APG, 37% 3P%) and Matthew Murrell (16.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 40% 3P%). Transfer Dre Davis (15 PPG, 5.9 RPG) will provide the additional defensive toughness needed on the wing. Davon Barnes (39% 3P%) and Sean Pedulla (154 career 3s) should add some offensive firepower as TJ Caldwell serves as the backcourt’s best defender. Additionally, transfers Malik Dia and Mikael Brown-Jones should be potent scorers in the post.
Ole Miss has plenty of punch, but Beard will not be satisfied trying to outscore opponents. Before last season, Beard’s teams were rated in the Top 20 of KenPom Defensive Efficiency in six straight seasons. While it is likely unreasonable for this group to reach that standard, it should be dramatically improved enough to get Ole Miss back into the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Chris Jans and the Bulldogs have made the NCAA Tournament in each of his first two seasons in Starkville largely on the back of excellent defense and rebounding. Mississippi State ranked just outside the Top 20 nationally for adjusted defensive efficiency and were eighth in defending 3s (29.8%). The offense has to improve with shooting and taking care of the basketball (18.9% TO%, 298th) if they are going to take the next step.
Josh Hubbard (17.1 PPG) had a marvelous freshman campaign and was one of the nation’s highest-usage players. He needs some help in the backcourt and may have it with transfers Kanye Clary (38% 3P%), Riley Kugel and Claudell Harris to provide much needed outside shooting for a team that improved, but still only shot 32% last year. Cameron Matthews (9.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG) led the SEC in eFG% by shooting 69 percent on 2s and he is an excellent defender all over the floor.
Jans took New Mexico State to the NCAA Tournament in four of five years and is doing the same at Mississippi State. His team’s defense is good enough to get them on the NCAA Tournament bubble, but this team has to prove it can make shots to make a return appearance.
Missouri Tigers
No team in the power conferences took a bigger dive last year than Missouri, a 25-10 NCAA Tournament team that reached the second round in 2023. Last year, the Tigers were 8-24 and 0-18 in the SEC. This year, Dennis Gates bolstered the roster with transfers and the nation’s No. 5 recruiting class per 247 Sports.
PG Tony Perkins (14.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.6 APG) had nearly 1,200 points at Iowa. Tamar Bates (13.5 PPG) had seemingly lost his confidence shooting the ball at Indiana, but regained it last year at Mizzou (54% 2P%, 39% 3P%, 93% FT%). Marques Warrick was Northern Kentucky’s leading scorer last season at 19.9 PPG. The star of the recruiting class is wing Annor Boateng, Mizzou’s highest-rated recruit since Michael Porter Jr in 2017. The star of the portal class is former McDonald’s All-American Mark Mitchell, who started 67 games the last two years at Duke and is likely a better fit in a more up-tempo offense.
Missouri should undoubtedly be the most improved SEC team, but the frontcourt behind Mitchell lacks proven production. The Tigers will likely fall short of an NCAA Tournament bid, but Gates has a fun offense that will continue to attract talent to Columbia.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma is about to find out that making the NCAA Tournament out of the SEC is just as difficult as the Big 12 has been in Porter Moser’s first three seasons in Norman. Five players transferred out and six newcomers are in this season for the Sooners.
Duke Miles (17.5 PPG, 3.6 APG) led High Point to a Big South regular season title last season and will run the point for Oklahoma. Transfers are the story here, with Kobe Elvis (37% 3P%), Brycen Goodline (47% 3P%), and Jadon Jones (38% 3P%) all on the roster as part of Moser’s effort to shoot better from outside. Jalon Moore (11.2 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and Sam Godwin (6.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) are the lone major returning players on this roster.
Porter Moser led Loyola Chicago to a Final Four in 2018 and to an Elite Eight in 2021, but he will need Sister Jean and any other divine intervention to get this group to the NCAA Tournament as there is just not enough talent here.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Lamont Paris took over the South Carolina program in 2023 and the Gamecocks went 11-21. One year later, they finished 26-8 and went to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2017. Paris won SEC Coach of the Year and was a finalist for all the national awards. The Bo Ryan disciple brought some Wisconsin basketball to the SEC with a slower tempo (351st), tough defense (4th in defensive efficiency in the SEC), and team play (16th in Assists/FGM).
Jamarii Thomas starred at Norfolk State and was masterful at drawing fouls (230 FTA). Jacobi Wright and Myles Stute contribute more on defense than on offense. Cam Scott, who flipped from Texas to stay home, is the most talented player on the backcourt and may have to contribute immediately. The backcourt is still highly unproven, but the frontcourt features Collin Murray-Boyles (10.4 PPG, 5.7 RPG), who made the SEC All-Freshman Team and is a potential lottery pick next summer.
The Gamecocks will stay competitive in most games solely based on tempo and defense, but they will miss Meechie Johnson’s ability to get buckets. Plus, they were on the fortunate side in a lot of close games (8-3 in games decided by five points or less). South Carolina likely regresses this season.
Tennessee Volunteers
The Vols reached the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010 thanks to a familiar recipe, as Tennessee had the No. 3 adjusted defensive efficiency and was No. 6 in eFG% defense. Rick Barnes also loosened up the offense with the quickest tempo (80th) of his tenure. Now is that a philosophical change or was it because they had a first-round draft pick in Dalton Knecht?
Sometimes initiating offense is just having Zakai Zeigler (11.8 PPG, 6.1 APG, 1.7 SPG, 37% 3P%) play his pitbull-like defense and just take the ball away to go for a layup or set up a teammate. Barnes and the Vols are hoping that lightning can strike twice by landing a 3-point marksman in Chaz Lanier (44% 3P%, North Florida) after they got that with Knecht from Northern Colorado. Darlinstone Dubar is an inside-outside threat who averaged 17.8 PPG and 6.8 RPG at Hofstra. Igor Millicic Jr from Charlotte is a bruiser type who averaged 12.8 PPG and 8.5 RPG last season and shot 63 percent on 2s plus shot 38% on 3s.
Tennessee will once again be in the NCAA Tournament. However, it is tough to replace Knecht’s production. Another disappointing early first or second-round exit looks likely for Rocky Top.
Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns reached the NCAA Tournament again last year, but were bounced in the second round by former Texas head coach Rick Barnes and Tennessee. Texas went 0-8 against Top 30 opponents in the Big 12 last season. Rodney Terry will have to produce with mostly newcomers as all five starters are gone.
Big man Kadin Shedrick (7.7 PPG, 3 RPG) is the main returning contributor as he elevates to a starting role. Arthur Kaluma (14.4 PPG, 7 RPG) is an inside/outside threat that will be given freedom to attack the rim asTerry also brought in two players from Indiana State’s NIT runner-up team with Jayson Kent (13.5 PPG, 8.1 RPG) and Julian Larry (11 PPG, 4.8 APG, 46.2% 3P%) who is a pesky defender. Jordan Pope (17.6 PPG, 37.1% 3P%, Oregon State) and Tramon Mark (16.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, Arkansas) are also in. Five-star McDonald’s All-American wing Tre Johnson is a likely one-and-done and borderline lottery pick in 2025.
Outside of Alabama, Texas could very well be the most talented team in the SEC. They were very unlucky last year and could see some positive regression on that end. There are six seniors on this roster, so they have the experience, but do they have the grit to win these close games?
Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies have made back-to-back NCAA Tournaments for the first time since 2011 and advanced a round for the first time since 2018 before losing to Houston in overtime. Buzz Williams’ group ranked 341st in eFG% (45.7) and shot just 29.3% from 3 (342nd). However, they guard and they rebound, as they were No. 1 in ORB% (42.3%).
Wade Taylor IV (19.1 PPG, 4 APG) is the big shot-maker and shot-taker for this team. The Aggies put the foot on the gas tempo wise to get off the bubble. A&M had the nation’s fourth-best offensive efficiency after March 1. Zhuric Phelps (SMU), a slasher, and C.J. Wilcher (Nebraska), a three-point bomber, gives the Aggies even more weapons in an up-tempo style.
A&M is also deep in the frontcourt with the returns of Henry Coleman III, Solomon Washington, Andersson Garcia, and Jace Carter, who can all score and rebound. Plus, Pharrel Payne comes in to give the Aggies the rim protection they have lacked. This team has all the pieces and the depth to be a second weekend team in the NCAA Tournament. The scoring went up late in the season playing at a faster tempo, but the shooting percentages must improve for a longer run to become a reality.
Vanderbilt Commodores
The Jerry Stackhouse era came to an end with a 9-23 season last year. Vanderbilt now turns to Mark Byington, who led James Madison to its best season in school history with 32 victories and an NCAA Tournament upset of Wisconsin. JMU was Top 40 in adjusted tempo per KenPom in two of Byington’s four seasons there so it is likely that the new coach brings the same to Nashville.
Byington had to hit the portal heavily, but especially in the backcourt. A.J. Hoggard (10.7 PPG, 5.2 APG, 34.7% 3P%, Michigan State), high-volume shooter Jason Edwards (19.1 PPG, 35% 3P%, North Texas), MJ Collins and Tyler Nickel (40% 3P%) (Virginia Tech), Alex Hemenway (42.9% 3P%, Clemson), Grant Huffman, who led the Atlantic 10 in assist rate (35.1), Chris Manon (Cornell), Devin McGlockton (10.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 39% 3P%, Boston College), and Byington recruit Jaylen Carey headline the roster overhaul.
Vandy will play a lot of five-out offense. While the Commodores are likely a year away from being more competitive in a daunting SEC, they have the guards to pull a couple of upsets along the way.
