Today we have a smaller than usual College Hoops slate on tap with 13-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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6 p.m. ET: Toledo (-2.5, 160) at Bowling Green

Toledo (10-8) has dropped two of their last three games and just got crushed by Kent State 83-64, losing outright as 1-point home favorites. Similarly, Bowling Green (7-11) has lost three of their last four games and just came up short against Miami Ohio 84-76 but managed to cover as 9.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Toledo listed as a 2-point road favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with the Rockets, driving Toledo up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops even briefly touched Toledo -3. Essentially, all movement and liability has been on the side of the road favorite Rockets. At DraftKings, Toledo is taking in 55% of spread bets and 61% of spread dollars, indicating slight public support but also respected smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Ken Pom has Toledo winning by one point (80-79). He also has Toledo ranked much higher (211th vs 286th). Those looking to mitigate some risk in what might be a close game could elect to play Toledo on the moneyline at -145.

At DraftKings, Toledo is taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, indicating one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the Rockets winning straight up. Short road favorites -5 or less playing a bad team (win percentage 35% or less) are 80-40 (67%) straight up with a 10% ROI this season.

Toledo has the far better offensive efficiency (98th vs 274th) and takes much better care of the ball, ranking 15th in lowest turnover percentage compared to Bowling Green ranking 143rd. Toledo is 4-2 in conference play. Bowling Green is 2-4.

7 p.m. ET: Kent State (-1, 144) at Ohio

Kent State (12-6) just snapped a two-game losing streak with an 83-64 blowout win over Toledo, easily winning outright as 1-point road dogs. On the flip side, Ohio (10-8) has lost two in a row and just fell to Eastern Michigan 94-87, losing outright as 8.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Ohio listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. We’ve seen drastic line movement in favor of Kent State, as the Golden Flashes have flipped from a 2.5-point road dog to a 1-point road favorite. Some books are even up to Kent State -1.5. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Kent State.

At DraftKings, Kent State is receiving 41% of spread bets and 59% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kent State is taking in 67% of spread bets and 89% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Golden Flashes.

Pros seem to also be targeting Kent State to win straight up (-115). At DraftKings, Kent State is receiving 39% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Kent State is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars.

Kent State has a big edge in terms of defensive efficiency (61st vs 223rd). The Golden Flashes are 5-2 on the road, the best road record of any MAC team. Ohio will also miss two of their best players due to injury, which is a big reason why we saw this line move so drastically toward Kent State. The Bobcats will be without AJ Clayton (15.5 PPG) and Aidan Hadaway (10.4 PPG).

9 p.m. ET: Penn State at Iowa (-3.5, 168.5)

Penn State (13-6) just snapped a four-game losing skid with an 80-72 win over Rutgers, covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Iowa (12-7) has dropped three in a row and just fell to Minnesota 72-67, losing outright as 8.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Iowa listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Hawkeyes at home, steaming Iowa up from -2.5 to -3.5. At DraftKings, Iowa is taking in 68% of spread bets and 79% of spread dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating both public and sharp support.

Wiseguys have specifically targeted Iowa to win straight up (-175). At Circa, Iowa is taking in 33% of moneyline bets and a whopping 62% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro money playing the Hawkeyes to win the game at home. This is especially important because Ken Pom has Iowa winning by three points (86-83), which wouldn’t cover the current 3.5-point spread.

Iowa has the superior offensive efficiency (19th vs 41st), effective field goal percentage (59% vs 55%), three-point shooting (39% vs 35%) and takes better care of the ball (13th in turnover percentage vs 98th for Penn State). Iowa has buy-low value as a favorite on a losing skid against a sell-high dog off a win. Iowa is 10-2 at home. Penn State is 1-3 on the road.

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