Happy Father’s Day to all the wiseguy dads out there!
Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Atlanta Braves (-120, 9)
The Braves (48-27) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 3-2 as +145 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 4-3 on a walkoff homer as -140 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Brewers (45-29) hand the ball to lefty Robert Gasser (0-3, 4.88 ERA) and the Braves counter with righty Bryce Elder (5-4, 3.15 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -140 home favorite and Milwaukee a +120 road dog.
The public expects an Atlanta sweep and 64% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with the Braves.
However, despite the public pounding the Braves we’ve seen the line fall away from Atlanta (-140 to -120) and toward Milwaukee (+120 to +100). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Brewers to earn a win and avoid the sweep.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is taking in 36% of moneyline bets but 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 57% of moneyline bets but a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split in favor of the road dog.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team taking in line movement has gone 101-62 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Milwaukee offers correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities.
Elder has struggled as of late, posting a 7.20 ERA over his last four starts.
Meanwhile, Gasser has posted a 4.02 ERA across three June starts.
1:35 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees (-120, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Yankees (46-29) won the opener 5-0, taking care of business as -280 home favorites. Then the Reds (36-39) bounced back with a 10-2 win yesterday, cashing as +165 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Reds send out righty Chase Burns (8-1, 2.01 ERA) and the Yankees go with fellow righty Elmer Rodriguez (0-1, 4.15 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -140 home favorite and Cincinnati a +120 road dog. At the time, Gerrit Cole was expected to start for New York.
However, once Cole was pushed back to tomorrow for extra rest and Rodriguez took his place, we saw New York fall from -140 to -120 and Cincinnati go from +120 to +100. This signals market-wide movement in favor of the road dog Red Legs.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 39% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is receiving 33% of moneyline bets and 39% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split in favor of Cincinnati.
Dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Reds here, are 44-40 (52%) with a 13% ROI this season.
Cincinnati is 10-4 in Burns’ 14 starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 0.58 ERA in day games.
2:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-125, 9) at Kansas City Royals
The Royals (32-45) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 14-6 as -115 home favorites and then winning the second game 6-5 as +100 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cardinals (40-34) tap righty Dustin May (5-6, 3.75 ERA) and the Royals start fellow righty Stephen Kolek (4-1, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -120 road favorite and Kansas City a +100 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Cardinals to earn a road victory and avoid the sweep, pushing St. Louis up from -120 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, St. Louis is taking in 44% of moneyline bets and 71% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Favorites who have lost the first two games of a three-game series and are looking to avoid the sweep have gone 44-29 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the favorite has gone 74-43 (63%) with an 8% ROI this season.
St. Louis has the better bats, posting a .325 OBP, .396 slug and 337 runs scored compared to Kansas City posting a .320 OBP, .392 slug and 321 runs scored.
May has posted a 1.31 ERA in three June starts, giving up only 3 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched.
The Cardinals are 19-17 on the road. The Royals are 19-21 at home.
