Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 21, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 49-23 SU for +12.43 units (ROI: 17.3%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-131 vs WSH)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 30-13 (+17.04 units) in his last 43 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-157 vs SD)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 443-468 but for +27.14 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-102 at ATL), ST LOUIS (-126 at KC)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 24-22 for -5.14 units (ROI -11.2%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-102 at NYY), SAN FRANCISCO (-144 at MIA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 41-71 for -36.73 units and an ROI of -32.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-102 at ATL), MIAMI (+119 vs SF), SAN DIEGO (+130 at TEX)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 83-101 for +7.98 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+123 vs PIT)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 38-18 for -2.51 units.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-238 vs BAL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 21-13 start for -7.74 units, and an ROI of -22.8%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-238 vs BAL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 150-186 for -19.23 units. This ROI of -5.7% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+119 vs SF), CHICAGO CUBS (-108 vs TOR), CLEVELAND (+118 at HOU), SAN DIEGO (+130 at TEX), BOSTON (+113 at SEA), NY METS (+158 at PHI)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 126-78 for +33.19 units, an ROI of +16.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-119 vs CIN), ATLANTA (-119 vs MIL), DETROIT (-122 vs CWS), ST LOUIS (-126 at KC)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 94-111 start for -10.67 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 40-55 for -14.81 units and an ROI -15.6%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – COLORADO (+123 vs PIT)
3-games – KANSAS CITY (+105 vs STL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 443-468 but for +27.14 units and an ROI of 3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-102 at ATL), ST LOUIS (-126 at KC)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 386-436 but for +85.60 units and an ROI of 10.4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+109 at TB), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+101 at DET), SAN DIEGO (+130 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+113 at AZ), LA ANGELS (+109 at ATH), NY METS (+158 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 167-66 for +19.11 units and an ROI of 8.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 49-23 SU for +12.43 units (ROI: 17.3%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-131 vs WSH)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 459-438 (51.2%) for +21.69 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-112 vs CIN), ATHLETICS (-131 vs LAA), HOUSTON (-142 vs CLE), ARIZONA (-136 vs MIN)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2108-2004 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -281.31 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-108 at NYY), MINNESOTA (+113 at AZ), PHILADELPHIA (-193 vs NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2138-2715 (44.1%) for -272.53 units and an ROI of -5.6% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+101 at DET), PITTSBURGH (-149 at COL)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 645-533 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.59 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-142 vs CLE), SEATTLE (-136 vs BOS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 383-193 (66.5%) for +52.53 units and an ROI of 9.1%!
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 347-307 (53.1%) for +24.87 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-136 vs MIN)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 143-103-17 (58.1%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAA-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 227-259 SU but for +49.94 units (ROI: 10.3%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+123 vs PIT)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BALTIMORE +193 (+35 diff), SAN DIEGO +130 (+20), MIAMI +119 (+18)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: NY YANKEES -119 (+29 diff), TAMPA BAY -131 (+22), KANSAS CITY +105 (+15), ARIZONA -136 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: STL-KC OVER 8.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SF-MIA UNDER 8.5 (-0.9), CWS-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), MIL-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(955) PITTSBURGH (38-39) at (956) COLORADO (30-47)
Trend: Over the total is 30-21 (+6.90 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-COL (o/u at 11.5)
(957) NEW YORK-NL (34-42) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (41-35)
Trend: Zack Wheeler’s teams are 18-3 (+12.75 units) when he starts as a home favorite between -165 and -190 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-187 vs NYM)
(963) LOS ANGELES-AL (31-47) at (964) ATHLETICS (38-39)
Trend: LAA is 8-17 (-9.48 units) on the road in the -160 to +131 line range with starter Reid Detmers last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+109 at ATH)
Trend: ATH is 13-22 (-11.46 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-1.5 vs LAA)
(967) CINCINNATI (36-39) at (968) NEW YORK-AL (46-29)
Trend: Over the total is 20-12-1 (+6.80 units) in CIN day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CIN-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(973) TORONTO (38-39) at (974) CHICAGO-NL (40-37)
Trend: TOR is 14-20 (-9.54 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-1.5 at CHC)
Trend: CHC is 35-16 (+12.02 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-108 vs TOR)
(975) SAN DIEGO (39-36) at (976) TEXAS (36-40)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 30-13 (+17.04 units) in his last 43 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-157 vs SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): BALTIMORE, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, TAMPA BAY, ST LOUIS, TORONTO, TEXAS, ARIZONA, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-COL
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, Monday 6/22)
