Today we have a smaller than usual College Basketball slate on tap with roughly 20-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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2 p.m. ET: Robert Morris at Wright State (-3, 150.5)

Robert Morris (16-7) has won six straight games and just crushed IU Indianapolis 106-53, easily covering as 9-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Wright State (11-12) has rotated wins and losses over their last four games and just came up short against Youngstown State 88-86, pushing as 2-point road dogs.

This line opened with Wright State listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Sharps have laid the short chalk with Wright State, pushing the Raiders up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even approaching -3.5. At DraftKings, Wright State is receiving 53% of spread bets but 66% of spread dollars. At Circa, Wright State is taking in only 25% of spread bets but a whopping 90% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy discrepancy in favor of the home team.

Ken Pom has Wright State winning by three points (77-74). Those looking to follow the sharp move but also mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could elect to play Wright State on the moneyline at -160.

Wright State has fishy buy-low value as a short favorite with a losing record against a sell-high dog with a winning record on a win streak. Wright State has the better offensive efficiency (113th vs 216th), effective field goal percentage (55% vs 49%) and three-point shooting (38% vs 34%). Wright State is 7-3 at home this season. Robert Morris is 5-5 on the road.

2 p.m. ET: Manhattan at Sacred Heart (-3.5, 154.5)

Manhattan (10-9) has won two in a row and just crushed Iona 76-55, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. Similarly, Sacred Heart (8-12) has also won two straight and just took down Niagara 86-77, winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Sacred Heart listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re grabbing the points with road dog Manhattan. However, despite 54% of spread bets taking the points with Manhattan we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Sacred Heart -2.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of Sacred Heart, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, Sacred Heart is only taking in 46% of spread bets but 64% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Ken Pom has Sacred Heart winning by one point (80-79). As a result, those looking for some added protection might prefer a Sacred Heart moneyline bet at -170.

Sacred Heart has the superior three-point shooting (37% vs 34%) and better forced turnover percentage (129th vs 319th). Sacred Heart has a sizable rest vs tired advantage, having last played on January 25th compared to Manhattan last playing on January 31st.

4 p.m. ET: North Dakota State at St. Thomas (-2.5, 154)

North Dakota State (16-7) just saw their five-game win streak come to an end, falling to South Dakota State 72-62 and losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the other hand, St. Thomas (17-6) has won two straight and just brushed aside Oral Roberts 86-71, covering as 13-point home favorites.

This line opened with St. Thomas listed as a low as a 1-point home favorite. Sharps pounced on St. Thomas laying short chalk at home, steaming the Tommies up from -1 to -2.5. At Circa, St. Thomas is receiving 78% of spread bets and 97% of spread dollars, indicating heavy smart money backing the Tommies out in Vegas.

Pros have specifically targeted St. Thomas to win the game straight up (-145). At DraftKings, St. Thomas is taking in 61% of moneyline bets and 76% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of pros banking on the Tommies to earn a win on their home court

Ken Pom has St. Thomas winning by two points (80-78). The Tommies rank 121st in the country at forced turnover percentage. North Dakota State ranks 364th. St. Thomas enjoys a one-day rest advantage, having last played on January 29th compared to North Dakota State last playing on January 30th. St. Thomas is 10-0 at home this season.

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