Tuley: Wednesday Best Bets in NBA, CBI, NHL; plus NCAA Sweet 16 picks


Wednesday Best Bet, Tuesday Recaps

Regular readers know we’ve been on a roller-coaster ride lately in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office (sweeping our 3 Best Bets on Saturday but having losing days on Friday, Sunday and Monday).
But Tuesday was another high point as we went 3-0 with our Best Bet on North Texas +4.5 vs. Oklahoma State in the NIT as the Mean Green won outright 65-69 in OT, plus also cashing with the NHL’s Senators +1.5 +105 in a 2-1 loss vs. the Bruins and a First-Period Over parlay at +179.
I mentioned in yesterday’s column that our NHL 1P Over plays have been scuffling lately. We had lost 3-of-4, but they’re still profitable overall. I went back and added them up and we’re 10-11 with these parlays since the Super Bowl, but since they’re at plus-money we’re profiting 6.63 units (individual games are 28-14, 66.7%, which is outperforming expectations as we’re usually playing combos that have been hitting around 60%).
Let’s get to the (full-game) recaps for Tuesday and then look for more Best Bets on Wednesday, with one apiece in pro and college basketball, plus another 1P Over parlay as well as our advance picks for the NCAA Sweet 16 that is coming up on Thursday and Friday.


Tuesday Recaps

World Baseball Classic: Japan beat Team USA 3-2 in WBC Championship Game as Shohei Ohtani struck out his Angels teammate Mike Trout for the final out to earn the save and MVP honors. The ViewFromVegas is Japan closed as a +125 underdog (game stayed Under the betting total of 10 runs)

NBA: Faves went 5-1 SU and ATS with the lone upset by the Thunder (+6.5 in 101-100 win at Clippers). The Hawks (-13.5 vs. Pistons), Pelicans (-13.5 vs. Spurs), Celtics (-5 at Kings), Cavaliers (-4 at Nets) and Magic (-1 vs. Wizards) won and covered as chalk. Home/road teams split 3-3 SU and ATS. Over/Unders also split 3-3.

More NBA: On the season, favorites improved to 700-366 SU with 16 games closing pick-’em while underdogs dipped to 525-517-24 ATS (50.4%). Home teams lead 630-452 SU and 546-514-22 ATS (51.5%). In totals wagering, Overs still hold slim lead at 541-526-15 (50.7%).

NHL: Underdogs dominated at 9-4 Tuesday with the biggest upsets by the Canadiens (+210 vs. Lightning), Blue Jackets (+205 at Capitals) and Wild (+155 at Devils). Favorites 1-8 on puck line as only the Flames covered -1.5 in 5-1 win at Ducks. Road teams went 8-5. Unders led 7-6.

NIT: Dogs went 3-1 SU and ATS as North Texas (+4.5) upset Oklahoma State 65-49 in OT and Wisconsin (+1.5) upset Oregon in NIT quarterfinals while Eastern Kentucky (+4.5) upset Southern Utah 108-106 in 2OTs and Charlotte (-5) covered in 63-56 win vs. Radford in CBI semis.

NCAA Tournament (ICYMI): Unders dominated at 24-8 (75%) in the first round and continued that pace at 6-2 on Saturday before Overs went 6-2 on Sunday to finish 8-8 in the second round, so Unders are now 32-16 (66.7%) overall. Faves were 24-8 SU and 18-14 ATS in the first round. Faves went 10-6 SU in the second round but dogs led 9-6-1 ATS. Faves now 34-14 SU and 24-23-1 ATS so far heading into the Sweet 16.

Wednesday CBI Best Bet

Eastern Kentucky +4.5 vs. Charlotte: We like the underdog in the CBI Tournament Championship Game in Daytona Beach, Florida. I agree Charlotte should be favored, but not by this much as EKU has been getting in shootouts with everyone in this tourney, including taking Southern Utah to double overtime in the semifinals (as 4.5-point dogs as well) before prevailing 108-106. We see no reason why this shouldn’t also come down to a one-possession game (and hopefully we don’t have to sweat out OT or OTs like last night).

Wednesday NBA Best Bet

Bulls +3.5 vs. 76ers: This is an “anti-swagger” play against the 76ers as they just had their 9-game winning streak snapped on Monday in Philadelphia by these very same Bulls, so we know they can hang with them, and now they face them at home.

Wednesday NHL Best Bet

Penguins-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -145 / Coyotes-Oilers 1P Over 1.5 -160 (parlay pays +175): We almost passed on having a First-Period Over parlay today with only two games on the NHL schedule, especially with both sets of teams combining for around 55% with 1P Overs when we usually look for closer to 60%. However, the Avalanche are on a 7-game 1P Over run and 11-3 in their last 14 while the Oilers are on an 8-game run and 14-3 in their last 17 and the Coyotes are on a 12-3 run (all betting stats from “Follow the Money” Army member @PSUOtto on Twitter).

NCAA March Madness Sweet 16 Best Bets

Kansas State +1 vs. Michigan State (Thursday): The No. 3-seeded Kansas State Wildcats were disrespected as 3-point underdogs vs. No. 6 Kentucky in Sunday’s round of 32, but point guard Markquis Nowell led the way along with the KSU defense (No. 19 in defensive efficiency by kenpom.com). Some books opened K-State as the favorite here or at pick-’em, but early money has pushed Michigan State to favoritism. I understand that Tom Izzo gets his teams to peak in March, but I still have the Wildcats as the better overall team and will take any points (or point) we can get.
(Update: line up to Michigan State -2 as of early Tuesday morning and still there early Wednesday)

Princeton +10 vs. Creighton (Friday): This is similar to the FAU-FDU game where there’s no way that the fledgling Florida Atlantic program should have been favored by 15.5 points against Fairleigh Dickinson after its upset of Purdue. Princeton’s run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed seems to be overshadowed by FDU’s performance, but we don’t believe the Tigers should be 10-point dogs after going toe-to-toe with and beating No. 2 seed Arizona and No 7 Missouri. Creighton came through for yours truly on Sunday, but the Bluejays are more likely to just try to grind out the win here to earn a trip to the Elite Eight.