Wooden Award
Let’s take a look at the Wooden Award which tends to be one of the most popular futures markets for college bettors.
This year, someone will fill the void left by Zach Edey who was the first back-to-back winner since Ralph Sampson (1982 and 1983). Edey’s two impressive seasons came after Oscar Tshiebwe won in 2022 and Luka Garza in 2021.
That makes four straight seasons the Wooden Award went to someone listed as a center.
One of the favorites this year, Hunter Dickinson (+750, DraftKings) from Kansas could make it five in a row for that position. Unlike Edey who lived on the blocks and scored mostly with his back to the basket, Dickinson plays center more in-tune with today’s style of stretching the court from behind the arc.
Joining Dickinson as one of this year’s favorites is RJ Davis (+700). The North Carolina guard returns to Chapel Hill after leading the ACC in scoring (21.2 PPG) a year ago.
Not far behind these two is Alabama’s offensive machine Mark Sears (+900) who looks to roll over his NCAA tournament success into the Crimson Tide’s regular season.
The wildcard here is 17-year old Duke freshman Cooper Flagg who is not listed at some books because of his age. DraftKings has a Yes/No option for Flagg (Yes +700/ No -1400).
There are certain preseason characteristics needed to win the award and this group possesses the right combination. All come into the season with plenty of media hype, their teams are pushing for a national championship, and they can score.
Sure, big men like Edey, Tshiebwe and Garza all rebounded and blocked shots, but just like the other guards and forwards who recently won the award, scoring is what gets the most attention.
Taking a look back at the winners since Frank Kaminsky in 2015, the average scoring number for this group is 21.4 PPG. The lowest points per game was Tshiebwe’s 16.5. Also, every winner in this time frame, except Tshiebwe and freshman Zion Williamson, increased their scoring totals from the previous season.
To put into perspective, this year’s winner needs to be featured on a contending team, score around 21 points a game and demonstrate an increase in production from 2024.
Tier 1 Favorites
RJ Davis (+700), Cooper Flagg (+700), Hunter Dickinson (+750), Mark Sears (+900)
Breakdown: Any of these four are a good addition to a futures portfolio. The odds are high enough at this point to have room for another ticket or two as the season reaches the halfway point.
If a freshman can somehow pull off the win, it would likely be a Blue Devil as Williamson did in 2019. The 6-foot-9 Flagg enters the season with a Zion-level of hype, can excel anywhere on the court and is already being billed as the No.1 pick in the next NBA draft.
Flagg’s persona is so large he plays at a Nike school but has an individual endorsement deal with New Balance.
All four of these players – IF they stay healthy – are expected to fill up the stat sheet in a number of ways. Three of them demonstrated that last season (Davis – 21.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.6 RPG; Dickinson – 17.9 PPG, 10.9 RPG, 2.3 APG; Sears – 21.5 PPG, 4.2 APG, 4.2 RPG).
The best option here looks to be Sears. He comes with higher odds than the other competitors and plays the most dominant role on his team. Grant Nelson is also back for the Crimson Tide, but Sears is the face of the Alabama program on the national stage. There are probably going to be more times that Davis and Dickinson get overshadowed by teammates than Sears.
As for Flagg, he’s a freshman going against three other players praised by the media as “veterans” with fifth year status.
Tier 2 Favorites
LJ Cryer (+2000), Johni Broome (+2000), AJ Storr (+2000) Johnell Davis (+3000), Khalif Battle (+3500), Tamin Lipsey (+3500), VJ Edgecombe (+3500)
Breakdown: Cryer (Houston), Broome (Auburn) and Lipsey (Iowa State) are favorably positioned in the media as returning stars who can carry their squads to a conference championship.
Storr (Kansas), Davis (Arkansas) and Battle (Gonzaga) are going to be billed somewhat differently. They will be referred to as familiar names offering their new programs a key veteran addition to an already strong lineup. Storr’s gun-for-hire reputation, and playing alongside Dickinson, could hinder his campaign. Davis will be on the media radar with stories of how he left Florida Atlantic to move up and help John Calipari’s immediate rebuild in Fayetteville.
Baylor’s Edgecomb will be one of the names challenging Flagg as the nation’s top freshman.
Broome is a good option for bettors looking for more value. He is the featured player in Bruce Pearl’s system and has demonstrated a continual offensive improvement (16.5 PPG, 35.4% 3-PT). Also, as a big man most noted for his rebounding (8.5 RPG) and shot blocking (2.2 BPG), Broome offers a more unique candidacy than the top favorites.
The 2025 Torvik projections for Broome have him increasing his scoring (19.2 PPG) and rebounding (9.2 RPG).
Tier 3 and Beyond
Ace Bailey (+4000), Dylan Harper (+4000) Liam McNeeley (+4000) Caleb Love (+4000), Ryan Nembhard (+4000), Ryan Kalkbrenner (+4000), Zeke Mayo (+4000), Tyrese Proctor (+4000), Grant Nelson (+4500)
Breakdown: Everyone on this list and deeper is either a heralded freshman (Bailey & Harper at Rutgers, McNeeley at UConn), a second option behind a star player, or a great player on a team not expected to be near the top of the rankings. All those factors make it very difficult in the preseason to envision them winning the Wooden Award.
Instead of investing in someone here, look at the conference or national championship futures board. It is easier to monetize a longshot there rather than an award based on a media narrative.
