ACC
This originally appeared in our 2025 VSiN College Football Betting Guide released on Tuesday, August 5. Become a VSiN Pro Subscriber and get our betting guides as part of your subscription.
Last year, in their first season in the conference, the SMU Mustangs finished with the best record in the ACC and went to the College Football Playoff. For most of the year, it looked like the Miami Hurricanes would represent the conference, as the team started 9-0 and had a manageable schedule down the stretch. However, Mario Cristobal’s team folded, failing to even make the ACC Championship Game. Instead, it was Dabo Swinney’s Clemson Tigers that played in that game, and the group ended up winning it. A lot of that had to do with Cade Klubnik throwing for 262 yards with four touchdowns and no picks.
Klubnik is back to lead Clemson this season, and he’s one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. The Tigers also return more production than any team in college football, which is why they’re sitting atop the oddsboard as they look to go back-to-back in the ACC.
Once again, Miami, with some of the fattest pockets in college football, will be looking to challenge Clemson. The Hurricanes are second on the oddsboard. SMU, which nearly got the job done last year, is third. The Mustangs will need to hope that last year’s defense (seventh in yards per play allowed) shows up again — and possibly improves — and Rhett Lashlee is definitely hoping Kevin Jennings can continue his ascension at quarterback.
After the big dogs, Louisville and Georgia Tech are viewed as the most legitimate threats when talking about party-crashers. Though you can rule out Virginia Tech, Florida State and North Carolina at your own peril. There are reasons to believe in all three bouncing back this season. In Chapel Hill, the reason is Jordon Hudson’s boyfriend, Bill Belichick, who happens to be pretty accomplished as a football coach.
The rest of the conference is filled with teams that are either short on talent or early in the process of rebuilding. Though I’ll admit, I’m excited to watch Captain Andrew Luck, Stanford’s GM, navigate some rough waters this year.
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Boston College Eagles
Bill O’Brien went 7-6 in his first season in Chestnut Hill, and his team ended up losing a close game against Nebraska in the Pinstripe Bowl. All in all, it was a successful first year for a proven winner, and Year 2 has the potential to be even better.
If you include transfers, the Eagles depth chart will feature 13 players that started last season. There’s talent at the quarterback position, the running back room is loaded and the offensive line is supposed to be decent. That should be enough for O’Brien to cook with. The defense is also loaded in the secondary.
The big issue is the schedule. BC will face Clemson, Notre Dame and SMU this year, and there’s some other tough ones in there. Are the Eagles up for that?
Offense
Thomas Castellanos is now at Florida State, but Boston College is in decent shape at this spot. Grayson James, another running threat, got some experience down the stretch last year. O’Brien also added Dylan Lonergan, a former four-star that went to Alabama, in the transfer portal.
If the offensive line, which only returns two returning starters, holds up, the Eagles should be solid in the passing game. And the early reports about the group up front are strong. That’s also big for an insanely talented group of running backs. Jordan McDonald rushed for 6.8 yards per carry last year, and he should thrive in a bigger role. Also, Turbo Richard looked like a future star in limited action last season. The receivers, led by Lewis Bond, are a bit stronger as a collective.
Boston College could improve on last year’s 5.67 YPP, and a bump in Rush EPA per play (-0.04 in ‘24) should be expected.
Defense
It’s probably hard to be optimistic about this unit, as Donovan Ezeiruaku, who had 16.5 sacks last season, and Cam Horsley, another stud up front, are gone. And the Eagles were just 76th in YPP allowed (5.91) last season. However, they had a negative Dropback EPA per play allowed (-0.02) in 2024, and they’re expected to have one of the best secondaries in the conference this year.
They also brought in three FCS starters along the D-Line and the linebacker group is expected to be a strength, especially with Daveon “Bam” Crouch, a star in the making, back in the mix.
Outlook
I’ll bite on the Over on BC’s low win total. Home games against Fordham, Cal, UConn and Georgia Tech are all very winnable, and I trust the Eagles to do enough with road games at Michigan State, Stanford, Pittsburgh and Syracuse to get Over the line. O’Brien always gets the most out of his talent, and while there’s not a lot of continuity here, he has plenty of ball-players.
Pick: Over 5.5 Wins
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California Golden Bears
While the Golden Bears have an easy schedule, they also lost quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who masked a lot of last year’s deficiencies, to Indiana. There’s also a weird internal struggle going on, as the team appointed “Riverboat” Ron Rivera as the program’s new GM. On the surface, that’s a harmless move, but head coach Justin Wilcox has to report directly to him. That’s a little awkward for a coach that probably wouldn’t be on the market long if he were to become available.
Perhaps it will all work out fine. After all, Cal was 33rd in YPP allowed (5.33) in 2024, and the team has eight starters returning from that strong defensive unit. So, if the Bears get some decent play at quarterback, there’s a little hope.
Offense
Mendoza didn’t get enough love when he was actually at Cal, but he’s getting some first-round buzz for the 2026 NFL Draft now that people have really grinded his tape. That said, losing that type of player is going to be detrimental to this offense, which only averaged 5.89 YPP last season.
The starter will likely be transfer Devin Brown, once a four-star recruit. Brown never panned out at Ohio State, but there’s some talent here. Perhaps new offensive coordinator Bryan Harsin can get something out of him. If not, it’ll be talented true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele under center.
For whoever starts, the offensive line should be strong. The Golden Bears have two starters back from last year, plus they added five starters in the transfer portal. That should also help the running backs, but it isn’t the strongest group in the world after star Jaydn Ott left for Oklahoma. Cal also has a lousy wide receiver room.
Defense
Corners Nohl Williams, an All-American last year, and Marcus Harris are now in the NFL. But California is generally solid on defense every year, as Wilcox is a defensive-minded coach — he was once an elite defensive coordinator — and he’s good at identifying, and developing, talent. He should find a way to patch up the secondary.
The Bears also have a loaded front seven, and linebacker Cade Uluave should be one of the best players in the ACC, if he can stay healthy. The rest of the linebacking corps is solid. So, this should be a good group overall.
Outlook
An above-average defense and solid offensive line can go a long way, and the Golden Bears do have a favorable schedule. However, I’m not sold on this team having enough offensive talent to consistently win games. And the situation with Wilcox and Rivera is a little odd. Somebody in the ACC is going to have to be a punching bag, and I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s the team located in Berkeley.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Clemson Tigers
Dabo Swinney has won two national titles and nine ACC championships with Clemson. This year, the Tigers are expected to flirt with that type of glory again.
Last season, Clemson snuck into the College Football Playoff with a win over SMU in the ACC Championship Game. The team ultimately lost to Texas in the first round, but we saw some star-making performances from Heisman hopeful Cade Klubnik late in the year, and he’s one of 17 returning starters for the Tigers.
Clemson’s statistical profile wasn’t that impressive a year ago, but this was a young team that brings back 80% of its production. Another year of seasoning could make for a special season in South Carolina.
Offense
Clemson was just 44th in the nation in YPP (6.30) last season, but it does feel like the team found something late in the year. Klubnik threw for 262 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against SMU in the ACC Championship Game, and he also threw for 336 yards with three touchdowns against Texas in the CFP. That second game wasn’t perfect for the Tigers, but Klubnik stood out with his ability to make big throws in the face of pressure.
The Garrett Riley experience hasn’t always been smooth in Clemson, but he found his touch as a play caller last year. Riley can now let loose and open things up knowing that this is the most loaded Tigers offense he has worked with.
Clemson has one of the best offensive lines in the nation, running back Gideon Davidson has juice out of the backfield and Klubnik will have absolute studs at wide receiver in Antonio Williams, TJ Moore and Bryant Wesco.
Defense
Clemson’s defense wasn’t the same under Wes Goodwin as it was under Brent Venables, and last year was a tipping point for Swinney. The Tigers were outside the top 50 in both YPP allowed (5.73) and EPA per play allowed (-0.02). That was unacceptable given the talent, and new defensive coordinator Tom Allen will look to patch things up.
Allen’s job should be easy. The Tigers are stacked at every level of the defense, as they have talented starters returning and some big-time portal additions in the mix. Defensive tackle Peter Woods might be the best player in football this year, and defensive end TJ Parker and corner Aveion Terrell are stars.
Outlook
Clemson’s schedule is extremely tough. It all starts with a meeting with LSU, and road games against Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Louisville and South Carolina will all be challenging. There’s also a home game against SMU. But I’m going Over. The Tigers are stacked with NFL talent, have an elite quarterback and have improved the coaching staff.
Pick: Over 9.5 Wins
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Duke Blue Devils
Duke was dealt a blow with Mike Elko leaving for Texas A&M two years ago, but Manny Diaz looks like he’s up for the challenge of winning in Durham. In Diaz’s first year in charge, the Blue Devils went 9-3 during the regular season. And while their season did end with a 52-20 loss to Ole Miss, Duke’s momentum carried over into the offseason, as the Blue Devils landed star Tulane transfer Darian Mensah to man the quarterback position.
If Mensah makes a little jump in his sophomore season, Duke is going to be a problem for the rest of the ACC. Seven starters are back from a defense that was eighth in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.13) in 2024, and Diaz likely won’t let that unit slip outside of the top 20.
Offense
Mensah threw for 2,723 yards with 22 touchdowns and six picks for a good Tulane team last year. He was the leader and engine of a Green Wave offense that was top 10 in EPA per play (0.17) and 21st in YPP (6.70).
Mensah is a good decision maker with the football, and he can also make every throw in the book. He’s ready for the jump from the AAC to the ACC, and he’s going to be playing behind a line that has four starters back from last season.
Duke also has an explosive running back in Jaquez Moore. The Blue Devils just need to hope that an unproven group of pass catchers can give Mensah the support he needs.
Defense
The secondary could be the strength of this team, and that’s always a good thing. Preventing big plays is the name of the game, and corner Chandler Rivers, a first-team All-ACC performer, and safety Terry Moore, a second-teamer that will miss a few games to start the year, will play a role in doing that.
The Blue Devils will also be hoping to be as strong against the run this year as they were last year. Duke finished 12th in the nation in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.11), and three starters return along the line.
Duke also has defensive ends Vincent Anthony Jr. and Wesley Williams back to put pressure on quarterbacks, and the linebacking corps is solid.
Outlook
The Over on Duke’s 6.5-win total is heavily juiced, but it’s still hard to lay off that play. Between home games against Elon, Illinois, NC State, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Wake Forest and road games against Tulane, Syracuse, Cal, UConn and North Carolina, how can you not like the Blue Devils to win seven games? I count four gimmes in there, plus enough 50-50s to put trust in Mensah and this defense.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Florida State Seminoles
What happened in Tallahassee last season was absolutely stunning. The year started with Nick Saban attending one of their practices and declaring them as “one of the best teams in the country.” Then, Florida State went to Ireland and got upset by Georgia Tech. At that point, many were wondering whether or not it was a fluke. It wasn’t.
The Seminoles followed up the Week 0 dud with home losses against Boston College and Memphis. Ultimately, Mike Norvell’s group went 2-10 and the wins came against Cal and Charleston Southern. To make matters worse, Florida State’s final game of the year was a 31-11 loss to rival Florida.
This year should be different. Norvell has completely revamped the roster, and the potential is there for a quick turnaround — and possibly contention in the ACC. But expectations were high last season, too.
Offense
DJ Uiagalelei was good at Oregon State in 2023, so there were reasons to believe he’d thrive in Norvell’s offense. Well, that didn’t happen. The former Clemson quarterback was benched in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss to SMU, and he later decided to get surgery on his throwing hand. All in all, the quarterback situation was a nightmare, the offensive line was a mess and the team never got going.
Thomas Castellanos should be a huge upgrade under center. He’s an electric runner, making for a perfect fit in new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn’s offense. Castellanos actually signed to play for Malzahn at UCF in 2022.
FSU has a ton of playmakers in the backfield, plus an improved offensive line. The Seminoles also have some pass-catching talent — especially at tight end.
Defense
Eight starters are back on defense for Florida State. That might not sound great with the team having finished outside the top 100 in EPA per play allowed (0.07), but last year really feels like a complete throwaway season.
The Noles have talent scattered across every part of the defense. Corner Jeremiah Wilson and defensive tackle Darrell Jackson Jr. are two of the standouts.
Defensive coordinator Tony White should bring the unit back to respectability. That should be enough with the improvement coming on offense.
Outlook
The season will probably start with a loss to Alabama, but I wouldn’t be stunned if Florida State is 7-1 after eight weeks. This is one of my favorite Overs heading into the season, as this is a buy-low opportunity for a team with outrageous potential. Just two years ago, the Seminoles went 13-1, winning double-digit games for the second year in a row. Norvell didn’t just suddenly forget how to coach.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Brent Key has put together back-to-back winning seasons with Georgia Tech, and he’s hoping for a bit of a breakthrough this year. Georgia Tech is usually good for an upset or two every year, with last year’s wins over Florida State and Miami being the big ones. The team also lost to Georgia in a game that went to eight overtimes.
With Haynes King and Jamal Haynes back to lead this offense, plus seven starters returning for a defense that was much better in 2024 than 2023, the Yellow Jackets are looking to go from hunters to hunted.
Anything less than eight wins will be viewed as a disappointment this year, so things are about to heat up in Atlanta.
Offense
It wasn’t long ago that King was viewed as a disappointment at Texas A&M. He was a highly-regarded recruit out of Longview High School, but it didn’t work out in College Station. Now, after throwing for 2,114 yards with 14 touchdowns and only two picks, and rushing for 587 yards and 11 scores, in 2024, King is considered one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country.
Haynes, who rushed for 944 yards and nine scores last year, is also insanely talented out of the backfield.
The issue with the Yellow Jackets is that the offensive line is a little shaky. Also, outside of Malik Rutherford, they’re a little light on pass catchers.
This team was top 25 in adjusted EPA per play (0.09) last year, but they could drop a little there.
Defense
Last year was a huge step in the right direction for Georgia Tech on this side of the ball, but defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci left to be a LB coach for the Baltimore Ravens. So, while the Yellow Jackets do return a good amount of talent, there’s some uncertainty heading into the year.
New defensive coordinator Blake Gideon, who has coached safeties for Texas since 2021, is going to install more of a bend-don’t-break zone. Georgia Tech was good against the run in 2024, but the team needs to prevent big throws over the top. I have some doubts given the personnel in the secondary.
Outlook
I’m not buying the hype on this Yellow Jackets team. Sure, Georgia Tech will be fun to watch, as there’s a lot of talent at some important positions on offense. But the shaky offensive line scares me, and the defensive changes aren’t all that comforting either. The Yellow Jackets also have a tougher schedule than you’d think for a team with a higher win total. MIddle-of-the-pack ACC teams will like their chances against them in home games.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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Louisville Cardinals
Jeff Brohm led the Cardinals to 10 wins in his first year on the sidelines for his alma mater, then he followed that up with a 9-4 season in 2024. This year, a spot in the ACC Championship Game is the goal.
Brohm has done great work with transfer quarterbacks throughout his career, so Miller Moss was eager to play for Louisville after an up-and-down career with USC. The Cardinals will be pretty loaded around Moss, so he’s in a good position to succeed.
Louisville also has eight players with starting experience returning on defense, and they were 40th in the nation in YPP allowed (5.37) last year.
Offense
Two years ago, Moss threw for 372 yards with six touchdowns as USC beat Louisville in the Holiday Bowl. Perhaps that was the moment Brohm fell in love with the signal caller. Moss isn’t the most mobile quarterback, which is why he was an odd fit in Lincoln Riley’s offense. However, he’s very effective when he has time to set his feet and throw. He should have that with the Cardinals having filled some needs along the O-Line with players that started in previous stops. Brohm likes his unit up front.
Running Isaac Brown should be in for another big year running behind that line. He ran for 1,173 yards and 11 scores last year, and he also averaged 7.1 yards per carry. He’s a threat to make something big happen every time he gets a touch, and his presence should help Moss a ton.
Louisville might also have the best receiving core in the conference. Wideouts Caullin Lacy and Chris Bell are ballers.
Defense
Louisville’s linebackers are sure to be a strength, as TJ Quinn and Stanquan Clark are excellent. The team also added a player at defensive end in Clev Lubin, who had 9.5 sacks for Coastal Carolina last year. He’s going to work on the outside alongside a strong defensive front.
I also have some more faith in this secondary than most. Jojo Evans was a first-team Conference USA performer at Marshall, and he’ll lead a group of transfers that produced at previous stops.
Outlook
This team looks loaded to me on the offensive side of the ball, and the defense will be strong as long as some of the transfers in the secondary do alright with the jump in competition. With that in mind, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals are one of the best teams in the conference. The issue is Louisville’s schedule is a nightmare. Road games at Miami, Virginia Tech and SMU, plus home games against Clemson and Kentucky, all look tough. That makes the Under feel like the safer call.
Pick: Under 8.5 Wins
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Miami Hurricanes
Miami was 9-0 to start the 2024 season, Cam Ward looked like the Heisman Trophy frontrunner and Mario Cristobal seemed like he was on the verge of leading the Hurricanes to the College Football Playoff. From there, Miami, which always has a massive NIL budget and sky-high expectations, fell apart.
The Hurricanes lost two of their final three games, and they gave up at least 30 points in five of their final eight games. They also gave up 42 in a loss to Iowa State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Defensive coordinator Lance Guidry ended up being the fall guy, as he was replaced in the offseason. Cristobal then went out and re-tooled the roster with his unlimited funding. The splashiest acquisition was Georgia quarterback Carson Beck, but there were several others.
Once again, it’s National Championship or bust for the Hurricanes, but it’s been all bust since 2001.
Offense
Beck threw for 3,485 yards with 28 touchdowns and 12 picks last year, and he got a big deal to take his talents to South Beach. Beck is definitely capable of making some big time throws, but he’s also a mistake-prone player. Will that change now that he’s no longer facing SEC defenses consistently?
The Hurricanes will have an elite offensive line, so that helps Beck and running back Mark Fletcher a ton. It’s also hard not to like Miami’s wide receivers, even with a lot of talent from last year out the door.
Realistically, there are some moving pieces here, but talent isn’t an issue and Shannon Dawson always has good offenses.
Defense
Minnesota was 13th in YPP allowed (5.05) and 19th in EPA per play allowed (-0.10) in 2024, so new defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, who led that Golden Gophers defense, looks like a strong hire. He’ll have plenty of talent to work with, too.
Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor could be one of the nation’s top pass-rushing duos, David Blay is a monster in the middle of the line and the Hurricanes used the transfer portal to add some absolute dogs in the secondary.
As long as the team can stomach the loss of Francisco Mauigoa, this should be a very strong defense.
Outlook
Miami’s defense should be much better than it was a year ago, when the team ranked 56th in the nation in YPP allowed (5.64). There’s also plenty of potential on offense. The Hurricanes do have a brutal schedule though. They face Notre Dame to start the year, they host Florida and Louisville and they go on the road to take on Florida State, SMU and Virginia Tech. Do you feel great about Miami winning any of those games?
Pick: Under 9.5 Wins
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North Carolina Tar Heels
The drama surrounding North Carolina was out of control this offseason, but we’re looking forward to seeing what the 73-year-old can do in Chapel Hill. Our old pal Michael Lombardi is along for the ride, as he’s the GM for North Carolina, and we know that this duo is capable of doing special things together.
Belichick is a six-time Super Bowl champion, so this will be a well-coached team as long as his heart is really in this. The question is, do they have the talent they need right now?
Most of the talent from last year’s offense is gone, including star running back Omarion Hampton, and the defense is inexperienced. So, it’ll take every ounce of “Chapel Bill” to drag this team Over a win total of 7.5.
Offense
Belichick and Lombardi prioritized the offensive line in the portal. UNC added a couple of experienced starters, and the team also brought back starters Aidan Banfield, Austin Blaske and Trevyon Green. The running game might not be as explosive as it was with Hampton, but Davion Gause, and whoever gets carries behind him, should run well behind this front.
At quarterback, the Tar Heels are hoping that South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez, a talented dual-threat option, can succeed in the ACC. He does have some good weapons to work with, including Kobe Paysour, who was a big play threat last year.
However, the talent here isn’t quite as good as some of the other top teams in the ACC, and retaining offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens wasn’t the most inspiring move.
Defense
North Carolina was outside the top 75 in YPP allowed (5.96) last year, and that’ll surely change in 2025. Even with only five players with starting experience back, the safest bet — and one you can’t actually make — for the Tar Heels is that Belichick, and his son, will put out a better product on this side of the ball.
Landing UConn transfer Pryce Yates, who has 12.5 sacks in his career, was a good start, and there are some other big bodies up front.
I’m just not high on the linebackers or defensive backs, but Belichick should be able to make sure this defense bends and doesn’t break.
Outlook
I was pretty bullish on how this would go when Belichick was first hired, but there are big question marks on both sides of the ball. Perhaps they’ll get it figured out with some improved recruiting, but expecting eight wins doesn’t seem fair with this schedule. There’s always a shot Belichick will work miracles with his roster, but the Under is juiced for a reason. This thing will heat up once prized recruit Bryce Baker gets to run the show at quarterback.
Pick: Under 7.5 Wins
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North Carolina State Wolfpack
Dave Doeren is 87-65 since taking the NC State job, and last year’s 6-7 record marked the first time since 2019 in which the Wolfpack didn’t win at least eight games. Doeren has done great with this program, and he should be given some time to figure things out even if this ends up being a down year.
Doeren did well to keep quarterback CJ Bailey from transferring, as he certainly didn’t have a shortage of suitors. But the rest of the roster isn’t all that inspiring — especially in the trenches.
Doeren has exceeded expectations before, and he can certainly do it again. But he can use a little momentum. Most of the noise is coming from down the road at UNC — or Will Wade and the basketball program.
Offense
For a while it looked like Bailey was going to transfer, but he’s sticking around for his sophomore season. Bailey possesses some real arm talent, and he knows how to use his legs. Last year, he had a game in which he ran for 83 yards and three touchdowns against Georgia Tech. If he can continue to make strides as a passer, the sky’s the limit.
Unfortunately for Bailey, he’s working behind an offensive line that is a little hard to trust. That’s also bad news for talented running back Hollywood Smothers, who can make plays in a variety of different ways.
If the line doesn’t do a good job this year, it won’t matter that the Wolfpack have talented pass catchers in tight end Justin Joly and wide receiver Noah Rogers.
Defense
Losing Tony Gibson hurts. He consistently fielded good defenses in Raleigh. D.J. Eliot, who has been around the block and even served as linebackers coach for the Philadelphia Eagles two years ago, should be up for the task of calling the shots.
This defense is just a little hard to pin down right now. The Wolfpack will need Temple transfer Tra Thomas to help Isaiah Shirley and Travali Price in making up a strong pass rushing group. That’s a big part of what Eliot wants to do.
I have some real concerns about a secondary that lost four starters. NC State will be relying a little too much on young talent.
Outlook
Doeren is definitely a bet-on coach. In his 12 seasons with NC State, the team has had a winning record in nine of them. The Wolfpack also won nine games just two years ago. Still, this team is working in two new coordinators, and the depth chart doesn’t look as good as it has in recent seasons. So, even with Bailey under center, I’d be looking Under here. We’ll probably see NC State earn a big upset at some point, but that’s about all I’m expecting.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Pitt Panthers
Pittsburgh lost 48-46 against Toledo in the GameAbove Sports Bowl last year, but Pat Narduzzi still guided the Panthers to their fifth winning season in the last six years. All in all, he’s 72-56 since coming over from Michigan State, and you generally know what you’re getting from his teams every year. The Panthers will be fundamentally sound and win the games they’re supposed to win. However, breaking through and doing more than that has been a challenge.
Narduzzi did win 11 games in 2021. Pitt also followed that up with a nine-win campaign in 2022. But since then, things have been a little uglier. Will that change in 2025?
The Panthers do have some big time talent in quarterback Eli Holstein and running Desmond Reid, and they also have a lot of dudes returning on defense. So, if things break right, this could be another strong season in Pennsylvania.
Offense
If Holstein is healthy after offseason ankle surgery, he should be one of the better quarterbacks in the ACC. This offense sputtered down the stretch last year, but Holstein threw for 2,225 yards with 17 touchdowns and added another 328 yards and three scores with his legs. He’s a serious playmaker at the quarterback spot, and Reid is one of the best backs in the ACC.
Pitt also has some speed at wide receiver, plus some solid tight end options. But does this team have a trustworthy offensive line? The blocking hasn’t been there for the Panthers in recent years, with injuries to blame for some of that. If the line isn’t better, it doesn’t matter how good Holstein and Reid are.
Defense
Pitt was 39th in the nation in EPA per play allowed (5.40) last year. The Panthers now return eight players with starting experience, so a leap into the top 25 should be expected.
Kyle Louis, who had 7.0 sacks and four interceptions last year, is the leader of one of the best linebacking corps in college football. This group, which also includes Rasheem Biles and Braylan Lovelace, is disruptive against the run, can get after the QB and stays solid in coverage.
The Panthers just need to hope that some transfers can make up for talent lost in the defensive line and the secondary. But Narduzzi and his staff do a good job of identifying defensive pieces, so this team should be very good on this side of the ball.
Outlook
The offensive line is a question mark, but Pitt has some transfers that should be able to do a decent enough job to help the team win seven games. The Panthers have a home schedule that should be navigable, and road games at Syracuse, Stanford and Georgia Tech are winnable. This team just needs a little luck in the health department.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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SMU Mustangs
SMU didn’t need much time to get acclimated in the ACC. The Mustangs went undefeated in conference play in the regular season last year, and they might have won the ACC Championship Game if not for a miserable first half. Rhett Lashlee has a good thing going in Dallas, where his program has impressive facilities and legitimate NIL buy-in from the right people. With that in mind, there’s staying power for the Mustangs near the top of the college football world.
This year, another trip to the College Football Playoff is the goal, but the higher-ups will be hoping for a little more than just that. If things break right, Jennings has a shot at winning the Heisman. The team also addressed a need for some size along the defensive line. So, there isn’t much preventing SMU from building on last year.
Offense
SMU was 29th in the nation in adjusted EPA per play (0.06) last year, and the team probably would have been a little higher if not for some early-season struggles. It took a few weeks for Lashlee to really give the keys to Jennings, who took Preston Stone’s job and ran with it. That was when the Mustangs offense became a nightmare for opposing defenses, as Jennings can make every throw and is a dynamic runner.
This season, Jennings appears ready to take the leap and the offensive line is experienced and filled with future pros. Also, while the running back and wide receiver rooms are unproven, there’s talent scattered throughout and Lashlee is going to have no problems making everybody comfortable.
There’s a real path towards this being the best offense in the ACC, and top 10 in YPP and EPA per play is on the table.
Defense
SMU’s defense was pretty strong last year. The Mustangs were near the top of the leaderboard in several key metrics, but a lack of size was exposed against Clemson and Penn State.
SMU responded by adding a lot of bodies up front, including one that’s 6-foot-6 and 302 pounds in Purdue transfer Jeffrey M’Ba. The Mustangs should look more like a CFP team in the front seven, and that could make a big difference when thinking about the ceiling of this team.
This team also has a good group of defensive backs, and Lashlee added some impact transfers at linebacker.
Outlook
SMU’s going to be very good on both sides of the ball this year. Another undefeated season likely isn’t happening, as the Mustangs have a tough schedule. But I do feel better about SMU winning nine or 10 games than seven or eight. Some of the rougher matchups — like Miami and Louisville — will be played at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, making it hard to worry too much about the wheels falling off.
Pick: Over 8.5 Wins
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Stanford Cardinal
Stanford dealt with some real turmoil earlier in the year. Back in March, Andrew Luck, the GM of the Cardinal, made the decision to fire Troy Taylor, who had been investigated for mistreatment of female staffers. It also didn’t help that he underperformed as the leader of the team, going 3-9 in each of his two seasons in Palo Alto.
Luck decided to name Frank Reich, who coached him in the NFL, the team’s interim coach. Reich is a sharp offensive mind that won a Super Bowl as the offensive coordinator with the Philadelphia Eagles, and he was an NFL head coach from 2018 to 2023. So, from an X’s and O’s standpoint, the Cardinal will be in good shape. However, the talent on this roster isn’t all that inspiring.
Realistically, this should be a competitive team in 2025, but it won’t be a good one. And it’ll be interesting to see who Luck hires after the year
Offense
There’s a pretty open quarterback competition between Ben Gulbranson, Dylan Rizk and Elijah Brown, but it feels like it’s going to be the redshirt freshman that gets the job. Regardless, whoever does end up running this show should be in decent shape. Reich is a proven quarterback coach, the offensive line is expected to improve and they’re not devoid of talent at wide receiver or running back. Tight end Sam Roush is an interesting player to keep an eye on. This coaching staff should respect his skill set, which might be NFL worthy.
If the offensive line does its job, there’s a good chance this offense will be significantly better than it was a year ago. That’s a pretty low bar to clear too. Stanford was just 126th in the nation in YPP (5.02) last season.
Defense
Stanford was also outside the top 100 in YPP allowed (6.64) last season, so this team was miserable on both sides of the ball. However, the Cardinal do have eight players with starting experience back, including shutdown corner Collin Wright.
The secondary should be the strength of this defense, and some strides with the defensive line and linebacking corps would go a long way towards Stanford becoming a top 90 defense. Expecting anything beyond that would be a little unrealistic.
Outlook
While I don’t think this is going to be a good football team, I do think it’s going to be a well-coached one. That said, I trust Stanford to win home games against teams like San Jose State and Cal. I also think they’ll play some toss-ups on the road against Hawaii and Virginia. With those four games being winnable, along with an upset somewhere along the way being a real possibility, I’m going with Stanford to win four games. The odds are certainly enticing.
Pick: Over 3.5 Wins.
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Syracuse Orange
Fran Brown arrived in Syracuse with big expectations after having coached the defensive backs at Georgia for four years, and his first season really couldn’t have gone better. The Orange went 10-3, had a big ACC win over Miami and won its game against Washington State in the Holiday Bowl. Now, Brown is hoping that the team’s momentum won’t be stalled, but he only has eight total starters back.
Brown does have some young talent that appears ready for bigger roles, and he did well in adding players in the transfer portal. He also proved that he’s a difference-making coach when it comes to preparation. So, hopes will still be high when the Orange hit the field for a meeting with Tennessee on August 30th.
Offense
Kyle McCord might have been a little disappointing at Ohio State, but he was a revelation for Syracuse. Last season, McCord threw for 4,779 yards with 34 touchdowns, and the Orange were tied for 10th in the nation in EPA per dropback (0.23). Unfortunately for Syracuse, McCord is now on the Philadelphia Eagles. Two-time All-ACC running back LeQuint Allen is also gone, and Cuse only has two players with starting experience back on offense.
The offensive line is a question mark with so much turnover. They’re also a little less talented when looking at the running backs and receivers, making it hard to envision the collective coming close to touching last year’s 34.1 points per game.
The quarterback situation doesn’t seem promising either. Rickie Collins was named the starter after spring ball, but Brown brought in Notre Dame quarterback Steve Angeli as a late-portal addition. He could factor in eventually.
Defense
While Syracuse’s offense was great last year, the team was outside the top 100 in EPA per play allowed (0.07). The Orange were also one of the worst teams in college football when it came to stopping the run.
Syracuse added some size along the defensive line in the portal, and the team also has some talented youngsters ready to step up and make plays.
Syracuse should be solid at linebacker, where Derek McDonald and Anwar Sparrow make up a formidable duo. The team also feels good about its group of defensive backs, with Duce Chestnut being one of the standouts in the secondary.
Outlook
There might be some interesting young pieces on this team, but they saw a lot of production go out the door after a 10-win season. Brown will probably get the team back on track eventually, but it’s hard to imagine this being anything more than a five-win season. The only game on the schedule that I’m certain the Orange will win is a home meeting with Colgate on September 12th, making this one of my favorite Under plays.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
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Virginia Cavaliers
Tony Elliott, once the offensive coordinator at Clemson, is still waiting for his big breakthrough in Charlottesville, but last year was a step in the right direction. After back-to-back three-win seasons to start his head coaching career, Elliott led Virginia to a five-win 2024 campaign.
This season, the Cavaliers have a win total as high as 6.5 in some spots, so the oddsmakers at least think Virginia will flirt with one of the better years it has had under Elliott. It isn’t hard to figure out why.
Virginia has eight starters with returning experience back on defense, and the team added a proven quarterback in Chandler Morris.
Offense
Virginia made a pretty big splash in the transfer portal, adding quarterback Chandler Morris, who threw for 3,774 yards and 31 touchdowns for North Texas last year. Morris is also a decent mover, as he ran for 242 yards and four touchdowns. He was similarly mobile in his final season with TCU.
Morris is a more reliable passer than anybody Virginia has had under center in the Elliott era, but that won’t matter if he doesn’t have time to throw. The Cavaliers were miserable at keeping their quarterbacks upright last year, and they have been dealt some big blows heading into the season. They lost one of their potential starters, Blake Steen, as a late transfer to Mississippi State, and they lost Monroe Mills, a high-profile transfer, to a torn ACL in the spring.
Virginia will have talent at running back and wide receiver. So, if the O-Line can surprisingly take a step forward, this group has potential.
Defense
Losing first-team All-ACC safety Jonas Sanker is a blow to this defense, but bringing in Louisville’s Devin Neal (All-ACC second team) and pairing him with Antonio Clary should still make safety a real strength on defense.
The Cavaliers will just have to hope that some transfers can provide solid play at corner, and they did add some experienced DBs.
Virginia has a very good group of linebackers, and the defensive line should be better than it was last year. That means this defense has a shot at being pretty good in 2025.
Outlook
If you want to go Over on Virginia, you can find a win total of 6 that could help you avoid some risk. However, I think a five-win season is far more likely than a seven-win season, so I’m going with the Under on 6.5 instead. The path to success for the Cavaliers is improved play up front on offense. There’s now talent at QB, the skill positions are solid and the defense should be above average. But I don’t trust the blocking, and it’s hard to win 50-50 games if you can’t protect.
Pick: Under 6.5 Wins
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Virginia Tech Hokies
Last year was wildly disappointing for Brent Pry and Virginia Tech. The Hokies looked like a sleeper to win the ACC, but they ended up finishing the season 6-7.
Pry responded with sweeping changes to his coaching staff, as he hired Philip Montgomery as offensive coordinator and Sam Siefkes as defensive coordinator. Virginia Tech did lose a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, so both guys will have their work cut out for them. But the hope is that much better coaching will help the Hokies overcome the departures.
Offense
Montgomery has built some awesome offenses throughout his career, so there’s hope he’ll do the same immediately in Blacksburg. Kyron Drones’ ability to make plays with his legs will help. Last year didn’t go as planned for the quarterback, but he was banged up throughout the season. Now that he’s healthier, his dual-threat ability should be a game changer for the Hokies.
This offensive line should be in for a big improvement, which is part of the reason I’m buying a bounceback year for Drones. Pry hired West Virginia offensive line coach Matt Moore, who did great work up front with the Mountaineers and brought over some of his players.
There’s also plenty to work with when it comes to pass catchers, especially with tight end Benji Gosnell back. He’s a rising star in this conference. There’s also some talent in the backfield, where Terion Stewart comes over after being first-team All-MAC last season. He rushed for 898 yards and six scores for Bowling Green.
Defense
The Hokies finished 55th in the nation in YPP allowed (5.62) last year, and that was unacceptable considering the experience and talent scattered throughout the unit. Pry, a defensive-minded coach himself, decided that Siefkes, known for an aggressive approach, would be the right guy to lead his defense.
Pry added a bunch of full-time starters in the transfer portal, mostly along the defensive line and in the secondary. He also has a good group of linebackers returning from last season, along with some transfers there, too.
Virginia Tech might not be a top-25 defense right away, but things should look better this year.
Outlook
Virginia Tech burned me last year. I liked the Hokies to go Over their win total, and I even played some alternates. However, I don’t like letting previous results sway me too much, so I’m ready to get hurt again. You can get some serious plus-money odds for Virginia Tech to win at least seven games, and I think it’s a real possibility. The Hokies have a bunch of easy home games, plus some of their tougher games will be played in Blacksburg. That should help them win a big one or two and go Over the number.
Pick: Over 6.5 Wins
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Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Dave Clawson’s final two years with Wake Forest were rough, as the Demon Deacons went 8-16 in 2023 and 2024. However, Clawson had a winning record in six of his previous seven seasons with the program, and Wake Forest was 11-3 with a win in the Gator Bowl in 2021. Clawson very much helped this team find a spot on the island of relevancy, and Jake Dickert has some big shoes to fill.
Dickert is coming off a solid run at Washington State, where he went 23-20 over parts of four years and dealt with massive changes to the Pac-12 really well.
Dickert is ready for life in this conference, and his defensive mindset could be a nice change of pace in Winston-Salem. But he does need time.
Offense
While this is likely to be a rough season for Wake Forest, the team should have a great offensive line. That’s good news for running back Demond Claiborne, who rushed for 1,049 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. In Claiborne and dual-threat quarterback Robby Ashford, who transferred in after stints with Auburn and South Carolina, the Demon Deacons have two great runners.
The question with Wake Forest is, will there be any passing game whatsoever? Ashford hasn’t been accurate throughout his career, which is why he hasn’t taken the leap despite having real speed and a big body. Perhaps he can do that this year, but I have my doubts. I’m also not sure the team has the pass catching weapons it’ll need to scare opposing defenses.
Defense
Wake Forest was 103rd in the nation in YPP allowed (6.29) last season. Fixing this side of the ball will be Dickert’s toughest job.
The Demon Deacons do have some of their best players from last year back, as Nick Andersen, Davaughn Patterson and Dylan Hazen were productive starters a year ago. Dickert also added a lot in the transfer portal, though the guys he brought over from Washington State are all on the offensive side of the ball.
Maybe this team will be a little better than it was a year ago, but it’s still going to be one of the weaker groups in the ACC.
Outlook
Wake Forest should start 2-0 with meetings with Kennesaw State and Western Carolina to open the season, but things should go downhill from there. The Demon Deacons have the potential to be a good against-the-spread team, as they have a good O-Line, some good runners and a better-coached defense. But it’s hard to imagine them consistently winning games in what looks like an improved ACC.
Pick: Under 4.5 Wins
