Arizona State Sun Devils:
Kenny Dillingham took over a program with a bare cupboard in 2023 and got the expected results. Arizona State went 3-9 SU/5-6-1 ATS, but put forth some inspiring efforts. The Sun Devils beat Washington State as five-point home underdogs and went to UCLA and won outright as 17-point underdogs. Dillingham got this team to play consistently in 2023 and that is not going anywhere in 2024.
Offense
Dillingham had four quarterbacks attempt a pass in 2023. The inconsistent presence under center led to Arizona State finishing 130th in EPA per play on offense and 132nd in EPA per dropback. Only one of those quarterbacks – Trenton Bourget – remains on the roster this season. The favorite to win the job is Michigan State transfer Sam Leavitt. Jeff Sims also transfers in, but had an extremely poor season at Nebraska.
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There is not much continuity along the offensive line, but there was not much to begin with last season. The Sun Devils were decimated at the position in 2023 due to injury. Four players who started multiple games are gone, but seven transfers have been added to the room to bolster the depth.
Skill positions are in much better shape. Arizona State’s top three rushers return. Cameron Skattebo is an explosive back who forced 51 missed tackles and had 21 runs of 10 or more yards. Their leading receiver departs, but four of the top six pass catchers return.
Defense
The Sun Devils’ defense was ahead of its offense in 2023, but not by much. Arizona State was 94th in opponent EPA per play and 90th in opponent EPA per dropback. The secondary lost three starters from last season, but that might not be a negative considering how poor the group was. Dillingham bolstered the position group with many transfers, and it should be better than what it was in 2023.
Arizona State’s front seven is in decent shape. It allowed 4.2 yards per carry and finished 60th in opponent EPA per rush. Multiple defensive linemen depart from that group, but in their place are transfers from Power Four programs. At linebacker, Dillingham went to the portal and grabbed San Diego State linebacker Zyrus Fiaseu and Keyshaun Elliot from New Mexico State. Both were their teams’ leading tacklers last season.
The defensive staff remains mostly in place for the Sun Devils this season. The scheme will not change much, but there is some change on a defense which brings back just four starters. Considering how poor the group was in 2023 there are real expectations this unit should be better in 2024.
Outlook
Arizona State impressed last season with its willingness to play hard despite overwhelmingly negative results. That led to some good ATS results, but the team ultimately finished with a losing ATS record. This season, we could see a good ATS record without the wins. The Sun Devils go to Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Arizona in conference play, and they host Kansas, Utah and UCF. Dillingham might not improve that record this season, but Arizona State could still be better in 2024.
Pick: Under 4.5 wins
