Auburn vs. Baylor
Some Week 1 games tell us more about teams than others. Auburn vs. Baylor is one of those games, as this is a tremendous non-conference matchup with some NCAA Friday Night Lights in the Lone Star State. There is hope for Auburn to have a return to SEC relevance this season behind Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold, while Baylor could very well represent the wide-open Big 12 in the College Football Playoff.
This game is dripping with intrigue and storylines and clearly stands out as the game of the night on Friday. This is Auburn’s first true road opener in more than 20 years and it should be an amped atmosphere in Waco.
How to Watch Auburn vs. Baylor
Where: FOX
When: Friday, August 29, 8:00 p.m. ET
Auburn vs. Baylor College Football Odds
Auburn -2.5 (-110) // Baylor +2.5 (-110)
Total: 57.5 (-110/-110)
Odds from Circa Sports as of August 26, 9:00 a.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.
Auburn vs. Baylor Game Preview
Auburn
Year 3 is often when teams take a big step forward and that is precisely what Auburn fans, players, boosters, and admins are hoping for out of Hugh Freeze’s team. Auburn has not had a winning season since 2020 and has not won a bowl game since a blowout of Purdue in the 2018 Music City Bowl. Mediocrity doesn’t fly with this program. It got Bryan Harsin fired after two seasons and could have Freeze on the hot seat.
The Tigers have gone the transfer route at QB again, this time with Arnold and Ashton Daniels (Stanford) in place of Payton Thorne, who was a two-year starter for the Tigers after coming in from Michigan State. In due time, freshman Deuce Knight could be the leader of the offense, but Arnold gets the first crack after two years at Oklahoma where he put up a 16/6 TD/INT ratio and a 62.9% completion rate. He also added 560 rushing yards. Daniels was a multi-year starter at Stanford and is a good insurance policy.
While Arnold carries some unknowns, finding consistency from the skill guys is the chief objective for second-year OC Derrick Nix. Jarquez Hunter ran for over 1,200 yards and he’s gone, along with top receiver Keandre Lambert-Smith. The Tigers went portal shopping for Eric Singleton and also have some promising sophomores in Cam Coleman and Malcolm Simmons. With a lot of returning starters on the offensive line, the Tigers offense should be better, especially in conference play, where they scored just 19 PPG last season.
The Tigers were 112nd in the nation in red zone TD%, getting six points on just 20 of their 41 trips inside the 20. To make matters worse, the defense was 95th in that department. On the whole, they played well, holding opponents to just 4.9 yards per play, and just 4.96 YPP in SEC games. Even though the top four tacklers are gone, Auburn rotated a lot of guys, so DJ Durkin still has a lot to work with.
Baylor
Remember the name Sawyer Robertson. The Baylor QB posted a 28/8 TD/INT ratio last season and his size at 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds has him as one of the top prospects at his position for the 2026 NFL Draft. Robertson also had 230 rushing yards last season, as the Bears only surrendered 19 sacks. This was a balanced offense that had over six yards per play for the first time since 2021 and also finished +6 in turnovers.
Personally for Robertson, this will be a huge test against a SEC defense and a good chance to get some good film. For the sake of his team, this would be a mammoth win, as this is one of their bigger non-conference regular season tests over the last two decades. With a 1,000-yard rusher back in Bryson Washington and more tempo supposedly coming this season from OC Jake Spavital, this game could be a springboard for the rest of 2025.
Head coach Dave Aranda took over the defensive play calls last season and the Bears improved by nearly a touchdown in the points per game department and nearly a full yard per play. That said, they still gave up 30 PPG in Big 12 play and nearly six yards per play. It remains to be seen how explosive Auburn’s offense will be, but with a good amount of returning production on defense, except for second-leading tackler Matt Jones, we will find out a lot about how this unit grew over the spring and summer.
Aranda was firmly on the hot seat with last season’s 2-4 start, but the program ripped off six straight wins before losing to LSU 44-31 in the Texas Bowl. Did they make the right decision in exercising patience? We’ll find out quickly with this game and SMU on deck.
Auburn vs. Baylor Prediction
What a matchup here and, like I said, full of compelling storylines. Both quarterbacks are, deservedly, in the spotlight and both coaches are seeking a big win to silence some critics. The Big Ten has closed the athleticism gap with the SEC, but the Big 12 is still trailing behind. Does Auburn finally have the dynamic, big-play QB in Arnold to return to their standards? I actually have Baylor -0.5 in my Power Ratings here, but the Over 57.5 is my play here.
There is a chance of thunderstorms and a lightning delay could take the wind out of both teams’ sails offensively, but we have two mobile QBs with good arms and a lot of promising skill guys.
Pick: Auburn/Baylor Over 57.5
