Auburn vs. Oklahoma Odds and Picks
In one of the most dramatic games on the Week 4 college football slate, Jackson Arnold returns to Norman as the Auburn Tigers take on the Oklahoma Sooners. Arnold was once billed as the future of Oklahoma football, but the five-star recruit didn’t pan out. Now, he looks to have found a home quarterbacking Hugh Freeze’s offense. But this will be the ultimate test of where he’s at, as he’ll need to hold his own against John Mateer and an explosive Sooners team. All year, we’re going to be diving into some of the biggest college football games of the season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds and picks for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 4 College Football Betting Hub for a look at all of our college football betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How to Watch Auburn vs. Oklahoma
Where: Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma
When: Saturday, September 20th at 3:30 pm ET
Channel: ABC
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Wednesday, September 17th. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Oklahoma -250, Auburn +205
Spread: Oklahoma -6.5 (-112), Auburn +6.5 (-108)
Total: Over 48.5 (-105), Under 48.5 (-115)
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Analysis
John Mateer has completely changed the way people are talking about Oklahoma football. Currently the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, Mateer has thrown for 944 yards with five touchdowns and three picks. He has also rushed for 161 yards and another four scores. The Sooners now look like they have the kind offense they need to take advantage of Brent Venables’ ability to coach a defense. As of right now, Oklahoma is fourth in the nation in EPA per play allowed (-0.021), showing Venables was right to view Mateer, and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, as the missing pieces to his project in Norman. The only problem heading into Week 4 is that Auburn looks pretty damn good too.
These numbers can all change as some of these teams start playing better competition, but the Tigers are seventh in the nation in EPA per play (0.029) and 16th in EPA per play allowed (-0.013). They have looked extremely strong on both sides of the ball, and they already have a road win over Baylor under their belts. The Bears were a popular pick to win the Big 12 this year, but Auburn went into Waco and put up 38 points. In that game, Arnold rushed for 137 yards and two scores, spearheading a Tigers offense that is currently first in college football in Rush EPA per play (0.032).
I’m just not sure I see a scenario in which Oklahoma can completely slow down the Auburn running game. Not only is Arnold a load to bring down himself, but running back Jeremiah Cobb has been knifing through defenses. Cobb is up to 314 yards and four touchdowns on 46 carries, and I don’t see the Sooners keeping the Tigers down on the ground. That’ll open up some opportunities for Arnold to hit guys like Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman. But can he do it? That’ll ultimately decide how this game goes. Arnold will probably be a little nervous heading back to the place that he once called home, and the atmosphere is going to be absolutely insane. But I like Arnold to handle it well after seeing him do so against Baylor.
Auburn could also set up a little better than people think when looking at the matchup between the Tigers defense and the Sooners offense. Auburn is the top-ranked defense in college football in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.014), so I don’t think you can rule out the possibility of the Tigers doing a good job slowing down the Sooners running game — including the designed Mateer stuff. And while Auburn is just 36th in the nation in Dropback EPA per play (-0.012), I don’t think we know for sure that Mateer can shred this defense with his arm. He didn’t do anything special against a good Michigan secondary on September 6th, and Auburn has a similarly talented group of defensive backs. Sure, Sawyer Robertson threw for 419 yards with three touchdowns against this Tigers defense, but that’s Sawyer Robertson. He’s a much better thrower than Mateer.
Auburn defensive coordinator DJ Durkin also happens to be pretty good at his job. He has coordinated some very good defenses, and he now has a lot of talent at his disposal. I say that to say that I buy what we have seen from Auburn’s defense to start the year, and I think Durkin has the roster he needs to keep his team in any game. Durkin has also seen plenty of quarterbacks like Mateer in his career, so this isn’t something new to him.
Freeze has also been incredible as a road underdog throughout his career. His teams are 7-2 straight-up and 8-1 against the spread as road ‘dogs of 7 or fewer points, and that includes a 2-1 mark both SU and ATS at Auburn.
However, it should be noted that Oklahoma is receiving some significant money in this game. Our VSiN betting splits show that the line has moved from 4.5 to 6.5, and the handle is pretty outrageous favoring the Sooners. So, while I have my reasons for liking Auburn, you might want to jump on Oklahoma if you strictly like to follow the money. The Under also looks like a pretty sharp play. Everybody is taking the Over on what is a pretty reasonable number, but it has dropped from 49.5 to 48.5. And Auburn is 26th in the nation in run frequency, and both of these teams are sound defensively. Perhaps that means we’ll see a slugfest.
Auburn vs. Oklahoma Prediction
Oklahoma is a very good team, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Venables’ group gets the job done. However, Auburn is getting a lot of points in this game, and I don’t think the Tigers are much worse than the Sooners. So, I’m buying up to 7.5 with Auburn and sprinkling a little on the moneyline. That should protect me in the event the Tigers lose by a touchdown — as long as it’s not in overtime. I don’t love Arnold as a passer, but I think he’s good enough to make some throws against a defense that will likely overplay against the run. Also, Arnold should be pretty familiar with Venables’ defensive concepts from his time there. Venables doesn’t have that same knowledge of Freeze’s playbook.
Bet: Auburn +7.5 (-134 – 1.5 units) & Auburn ML (+205 – 0.5 units)
