Cal Golden Bears:
I saw a tweet on the day I started writing up the ACC that stunned me. Josh Pate of CBS Sports tweeted that 26 of the 32 NFL teams travel fewer miles than Cal, despite playing three more road games. As the Pac-12 disintegrated, Cal had to find a home and found it in the ACC, which seems to make zero logistical sense, but it is our new normal in college football.
The Golden Bears are now seven seasons into Justin Wilcox’s tenure with one bowl game appearance to show for it and their expectations are low this year with the transition, travel, and a roster lacking explosiveness.
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Offense
New OC Mike Bloesch has an outstanding running back in Jaydn Ott to build around. Ott rushed for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Getting him more involved in the passing game would make sense, as Fernando Mendoza had a lot of dink-and-dunk throws with 1,708 yards on 243 attempts. Getting the ball to Ott in space might create more opportunities for big plays.
And the Golden Bears need more big plays. Cal tied for 98th with 21 plays of 30+ yards and finished 80th in yards per play. Transfers Tobias Merriweather and Mikey Matthews, along with holdover Trond Grizzell (39-590-5), will be looked upon to replace the production of leading receiver Jeremiah Hunter, who transferred to Washington.
Defense
For Wilcox to be known as a defensive guy, this unit was awful last season. Cal was tied for 114th in scoring defense with 32.8 PPG allowed and allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the nation. The Cal defense was tied for the national lead in takeaways with 28, but the offense also turned the ball over 28 times.
Cal’s 16 fumble recoveries were the most in the nation, so turnover regression seems like a real possibility. For a defense that got gashed through the air, it’s hard to say that a change of conferences and all the travel are going to be positives, especially with a mediocre class of transfers.
Outlook
And, yet, the schedule is kind of favorable for Cal, as they’ll get some very winnable games at home. They also avoid Clemson and Louisville and I have them slightly favored on the road at Pitt and Wake Forest. They’re catching some rebuilding ACC teams to give them a chance outside of the likely losses. My numbers say 6.01 wins, so a slight lean Under because of the new conference and travel.
Pick: Under 6 Wins
