T Shoe Index Team Adjustments After Week 7
Now that we’re into the heart of the college football season and conference play, teams’ rèsumés are taking shape. Each week, there are massive clashes that will ultimately decide which teams make conference championship games, bowl games, and the College Football Playoff. Week 7 delivered in this aspect with the highly-anticipated Oregon vs. Washington matchup that saw the Huskies ultimately win a game that could’ve gone either way in an instant classic.
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In addition to the power rating impact of these games that I’ve previously written about, I want to break down where my résumé rankings currently stand, as this formula concept is one most fans are more familiar with. These rankings factor in W/L records, strength of schedule to date (per TSI power ratings), and margin of victory.
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TSI Top 3
Washington Huskies
After the huge win this weekend, Washington now sits atop the résumé rankings. The Huskies have played the fourth-most difficult schedule to date, based on average opponent power rating (4.1). They are a perfect 6-0, winning by an average of 23 points per game. Washington is now projected to win 11.4 games, with their lowest win probability (75%) coming in a trip to Corvalis in November to take on the Oregon State Beavers.
Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma, who has resided atop the TSI power ratings for a month now, check in at No. 2 in the résumé rankings. The Sooners are 6-0 against the 10th-most difficult schedule to date (2.6 average opponent power rating), winning by an average margin of 31 points per game.
Florida State Seminoles
At No. 3, the Florida State Seminoles check in with the 16th-most difficult schedule to date (2.2), winning by an average margin of 22 points per game en route to a 6-0 record.
Iowa Hawkeyes
A team that most – including me at first glance – might scoff at is the Iowa Hawkeyes. While certainly not glamorous (to put it gently), Kirk Ferentz’s team is No. 10 in the TSI rankings (power rated No. 31) with the sixth-most difficult schedule (3.9 average opponent power rating), winning by just six points per game on their way to a 6-1 record. They’re certainly playing with fire, but they’ve found ways to win and in a ranking exercise like this, they’ll be rewarded for doing so. With an average win probability of 73% the rest of the way, don’t be shocked to see the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten Championship Game with a playoff berth on the line *gulp*.
Group of Five
Two other under-the-radar teams I want to give credit to are the James Madison Dukes and the Liberty Flames. James Madison is 6-0, but has done so against the 89th-ranked schedule difficulty to date, winning by an average of nine points per game. Liberty is also 6-0, doing so against the 102nd-ranked schedule, but winning by an average of 18 points per game.
James Madison is not technically bowl-eligible (would be eligible if there aren’t enough teams with six wins) after transitioning from FCS, but these are two teams that in a normal year would be competing for the Group of Five bid to a New Year’s Six bowl game. Keep an eye on the Flames, who TSI projects to finish 12-0.
To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free CFB guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.
