College football best bets for Week 8
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After passing his toughest test of the season so far, Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. gets a two-week break.
The fifth-ranked Huskies (6-0) survived a thriller last week, outlasting Oregon 36-33 in a battle of Pac-12 powers. The dramatic ending produced arguably the best scene of the college football season as fans flooded the field to celebrate in Seattle.
A wild party typically leads to a hangover, so it would make sense for Washington’s players to be emotionally flat when facing one of the league’s worst teams on Saturday night. The Huskies opened as 28-point home favorites against Arizona State, and the underdog drew the early money mostly because of the tricky spot in front of the favorite.
Penix, the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman Trophy (-130 at DraftKings), leads the nation in passing yards per game (383.5) while completing 72% of his passes with 20 touchdowns. The Huskies’ sights are set on a Pac-12 title and a playoff spot, not the Sun Devils or next week’s game at Stanford.
Arizona State (1-5) was awful in its first three games yet has been more competitive in its past three losses to Colorado, California and USC. Four quarterbacks have rotated for the Sun Devils, but Trenton Bourguet took over the past two weeks and sparked the offense by totaling 679 yards passing.
I took 28 points with Arizona State early in the week and would play the ‘dog to +25. If Washington does show up focused and builds a big lead, the Sun Devils have shown enough scoring ability lately to at least get a shot at a backdoor cover.
PlaybookSports.com handicapper Marc Lawrence pointed out a trend that hopefully is a friend — Arizona State is 14-1 ATS in the past 15 meetings with Washington.
Pick: Arizona State +27
After going 2-1-1 last week — the push was Washington -3 — I’ll go with five more bets for Week 8 (home team in CAPS):
Penn State-OHIO STATE (Under 46)
The Big Ten features the nation’s top three teams in scoring defense — Michigan (6.7 ppg), Penn State (8.0) and Ohio State (9.7). The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions each start an inexperienced quarterback, so expect conservative play calling, a lot of running and field-position strategy. Penn State’s Drew Allar is checking down often and averaging 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord can target wideout Marvin Harrison Jr., the top playmaker in this matchup, but the quarterbacks will not be asked to do too much against these defenses. Lions coach James Franklin is not exactly a big-game coach, with a 1-8 record against the Buckeyes, so I have talked myself out of playing the ‘dog.
MICHIGAN STATE (+24) over Michigan
Jim Harbaugh is 2-5-1 ATS versus the Spartans, with the Wolverines coach losing outright as a favorite of 7.5, 13, 21 and 4.5 points. Michigan has dominated weak opponents, winning each of its seven games by 24 points or more, and it’s not going to be a surprise if the Spartans get body slammed. Still, Michigan State showed much more fight in its last two losses to Rutgers and Iowa and will attack this rivalry game as the most important on its schedule.
Air Force-NAVY (Under 34.5)
Falcons quarterback Zac Larrier is out with an injured knee, which is significant because Larrier is the team’s second-leading rusher, and his backup, Jensen Jones, has attempted one pass in his career. The Midshipmen beat Charlotte 14-0 a week ago. Wet weather and winds in the 20-mph range mean the clock will be running in a game waged on the ground. (Split one unit on this play, with a half-unit Under the total and half-unit on Navy +10.5).
Minnesota (+3.5) over IOWA
If the Hawkeyes cover, they will likely get there with a defensive or special-teams score because their offense is abysmal. Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill is 27-for-70 (38.6%) through the air since taking over for injured starter Cade McNamara. The team’s top pass catcher, tight end Erick All, was lost for the season a week ago. With a total of 31, take the points with the Golden Gophers, who definitely have the more capable quarterback.
STANFORD (+17) over Ucla
The Cardinal found something in a 46-43 double-overtime win at Colorado, and that something was a connection between quarterback Ashton Daniels and wideout Elic Ayomanor. Daniels passed for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Stanford has been improving under first-year coach Troy Taylor, and its 21-20 home loss to Arizona on Sept. 23 looks better considering the Wildcats’ recent surge. Bruins quarterback Dante Moore has been making too many freshman mistakes.
