The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 15/16. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* BOISE STATE is a perfect 10-0 ATS in MWC play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer
Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE ST (-4 vs UNLV)

* VIRGINIA is on a run of 9-1 SU and ATS in the series with Duke
Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (-3.5 vs Duke)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 223-52 SU and 157-115-3 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October 2015.
System Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-2.5 vs Alabama)

– Power 5 conference title game neutral field double-digit favorites are on a 23-game SU winning streak and are 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in a span that dates back to 2008. Over the total is also 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 of those games.
2025 Matches (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-12.5 vs. BYU), also OVER 50.5 in BYU-Texas Tech

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen Effective Strength Ratings: INDIANA +4.5 vs Ohio St (projections have line at Indiana +0.1)

Conference Championship Game Betting Systems

In looking back at all of the conference championship game logs since their inception in 1992, I was able to come up with the following five betting systems that have developed:

– Outright winners have won their last 39 games against the spread!
2025 Matches: ALL outright winners ATS

– Group of 5 conference title game neutral field dogs are 13-14 SU but 19-7-1 ATS (73.1%) in their last 27 tries, including 15-4-1 ATS on lines of 3 points or more.
2025 Match (PLAY): MIAMI OHIO (+1.5 vs. Western Michigan)

– Conference title game favorites in the -7.5 to -11.5 range are a perfect 25-0 SU all-time and are 15-7 ATS (68.2%) in their last 22 tries.
2025 Match (PLAY): NONE – although Texas Tech (-12.5) could slip into that line range with late movement

– Point spreads of -3.5 or less find the greatest percentage of underdog covers in conference title games historically, as teams getting +3.5 points or fewer are on a 26-15 ATS run since 2008.

2025 Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE (+2.5 vs. Kennesaw State), TULANE (+2.5 vs. North Texas), MIAMI (OH) (+1.5 vs. Western Michigan), ALABAMA (+2.5 vs. Georgia), DUKE (+3.5 vs. Virginia)

– There have been eight home underdogs in conference title games since 2009, and these teams boast a record of 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5%).

2025 Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE STATE (+2.5 vs. Kennesaw State), TULANE (+2.5 vs. North Texas)

– Power 5 conference title game neutral field favorites are on a 28-9 SU and 23-14 ATS (62.2%) run but did go 1-3 SU and ATS in 2024.
2025 Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS TECH (-12.5 vs. BYU), GEORGIA (-2.5 vs. Alabama), VIRGINIA (-3.5 vs. Duke), OHIO STATE (-4.5 vs. Indiana)

– Power 5 conference title game neutral field double-digit favorites are on a 23-game SU winning streak and are 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in a span that dates back to 2008. Over the total is also 12-6 (66.7%) in the last 18 of those games.
2025 Matches (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-12.5 vs. BYU), also OVER 50.5 in BYU-Texas Tech

– Conference title game totals of less than 50 have gone Over at a 24-13 (64.9%) rate since 2003. Over the last two years, they are just 1-4 Over.
2025 Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER 47.5 in Troy-James Madison, OVER 43.5 in Miami (OH)-Western Michigan, OVER 47.5 in Georgia-Alabama, OVER 48.5 in Indiana-Ohio State

– Conference title game totals of 64 or higher have gone Under at a 21-11-1 (65.6%) rate since 2004.
2025 Match (PLAY): UNDER 66.5 in North Texas-Tulane

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 51-32 ATS (61.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UNLV (+4 at Boise State), DUKE (+3.5 at Virginia), INDIANA (+4.5 vs Ohio State), BYU (+12.5 vs Texas Tech), ARMY (+4.5 at Navy)

    College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

    The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

    CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
    In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 218-113 SU and 190-132-9 ATS (59%). 
    System Match (PLAY): TULANE (+2.5 vs North Texas)

    CFB Ranked Team System #3 – Home ranked teams vs. non-ranked visitors: In games week 12 or later in the season, there has been a huge discrepancy in the performance of ranked home teams against non-ranked visitors at the 12-point favorite line mark. As favorites of 12 points or more, they have gone 133-14 SU but just 62-79-2 ATS (44%), but at any other line, including underdog, they are 46-12 SU and 35-23 ATS (60.3%) since 2017.
    System Match: FADE BIG FAVORITES– JAMES MADISON (-23.5 vs Troy)

    CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 354-27 SU but just 168-209-4 ATS (44.6%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015. 
    System Match (FADE): JAMES MADISON (-23.5 vs Troy)

    CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 223-52 SU and 157-115-3 ATS (57.7%) surge when favored in the next game since October 2015.
    System Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-2.5 vs Alabama)

    CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 63-88 SU and 65-83-3 ATS (43.9%) since September 2019. These teams are also 74-34 Under the total (68.5%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA (-2.5 vs Alabama), OHIO STATE (-4.5 vs Indiana)
    System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): GEORGIA-ALABAMA (o/u at 47.5), OHIO ST-INDIANA (o/u at 48.5)

    CFB Ranked Team System #16: Teams playing in the middle game(s) of what winds up being 3+ straight games versus ranked opponents have been quite successful, going 94-74 SU and 102-64-2 ATS (61.4%) dating back to November of ’15.
    System Matches (PLAY ALL): GEORGIA (-2.5 vs Alabama), OHIO STATE (-4.5 vs Indiana)

    These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

    * Favorites of >= 4 points on Mountain West Friday nights have gone 56-4 SU (~+39.05 units) since 2016
    Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-185 vs UNLV)

    * Sun Belt Underdogs of 22 points or more are 23-11 (67.6%) ATS since 2015
    Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+23.5 at James Madison)

    * Sun Belt non-Saturday games have gone Under the total at a 53-29-1 (64.6%) rate since 2015
    Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TROY-JAMES MADISON (o/u at 47.5)

    Positive Follow Trends:

    • BOISE STATE is a perfect 10-0 ATS in MWC play when coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer
    Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE ST (-4 vs UNLV)

    • TROY has won 13 of its last 16 Sun Belt road games ATS
    • TROY is on a 20-5 ATS run in Sun Belt play when coming off a win
    Trends Match (PLAY): TROY (+23.5 at James Madison)

    • NAVY is on a 32-10 ATS run in conference games when coming off a home win
    Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-4.5 vs Army)

    Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems

    Not taking advantage enough of turnovers can be a red flag
    CFB FBS teams that benefitted from a +5 turnover differential or greater but failed to score 44+ points in that game have responded by going just 39-59 ATS (39.8%) in their next contest since 2012. 
    System Match (FADE): WESTERN MICHIGAN (-1.5 vs Miami (OH))

      Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

      One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.

      Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 5:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

      CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
      System Matches (FADE ALL): VIRGINIA, OHIO STATE

      CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2024, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
      System Match (FADE): KENNESAW STATE

      CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
      System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UNLV

      CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 seasons record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday. 
      System Matches (PLAY ALL): JAMES MADISON, NORTH TEXAS, BOISE STATE

      CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
      System Match (PLAY UNDER): ARMY-NAVY

      This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

      The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

      This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. BYU +12.5 (+3.5)
      2. ALABAMA +2.5 (+3.2)
      3. DUKE +3.5 (+2.6)
      4. INDIANA +4.5 (+2.0)
      5. TROY +23.5 (+1.9)

      This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1(tie). BOISE STATE -4 (+1.0)
      WESTERN MICHIGAN -1.5 (+1.0)

      This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+4.4)
      2. TULANE +2.5 (+2.5)
      3. BYU +12.5 (+2.2)
      4. ALABAMA +2.5 (+2.1)
      5. JACKSONVILLE STATE +2.5 (+1.4)

      This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Match: WESTERN MICHIGAN -1.5 (+1.5)

      This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. BYU-TEXAS TECH OVER 49.5 (+4.5)
      2. GEORGIA-ALABAMA OVER 47.5 (+2.5)
      3. DUKE-VIRGINIA OVER 57.5 (+1.4)
      4. TROY-JAMES MADISON OVER 47.5 (+0.9)
      5. INDIANA-OHIO STATE OVER 48.5 (+0.5)

      This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. NORTH TEXAS-TULANE UNDER 66.5 (-5.8)
      2. UNLV-BOISE STATE UNDER 58.5 (-0.4)
      3. MIAMI (OH)-WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER 43.5 (-0.1)

      This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. INDIANA +4.5 (+7.0)
      2. DUKE +3.5 (+3.9)
      3. TULANE +2.5 (+3.0)
      4. MIAMI (OH) +1.5 (+1.8)
      5. TROY +23.5 (+1.5)

      This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. BOISE STATE -4 (+3.4)
      2. GEORGIA -2.5 (+2.6)
      3. KENNESAW STATE -2.5 (+0.4)

      This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA-ALABAMA OVER 47.5 (+2.4)
      2. DUKE-VIRGINIA OVER 57.5 (+2.3)
      3. BYU-TEXAS TECH OVER 49.5 (+1.7)
      4. INDIANA-OHIO STATE OVER 48.5 (+0.7)
      5. TROY-JAMES MADISON OVER 47.5 (+0.4)

      This week’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
      Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI (OH)-WESTERN MICHIGAN UNDER 43.5 (-1.7)
      2. UNLV-BOISE STATE UNDER 58.5 (-0.8)

      These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

      * GEORGIA is 25-17 (59.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
      Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-2.5 vs Alabama)

      * JAMES MADISON is 30-17 (63.8%) ATS as favorite since 2020
      Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-23.5 vs Troy)

      * MIAMI (OH) is on a 40-28-1 (58.8%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
      Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI (OH)-WESTERN MICHIGAN (o/u at 43.5)

      * NAVY is 17-11 ATS (60.7%) following a SU win in the last four seasons 
      Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-4.5 vs Army)

      * TEXAS TECH is 21-6 ATS (77.8%) in the last 27 games as a double-digit favorite
      Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-12.5 vs BYU)

      * UNLV is on a 24-11 (68.6%) ATS run following a SU win
      Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (+4 vs Boise St)

      * VIRGINIA is 21-10 (67.7%) ATS run following a SU win
      Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (-3.5 vs Duke)

      Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends

      These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

      (109) UNLV vs (110) BOISE STATE
      * BOISE STATE is on a surge of 9-0 SU and 5-0 ATS versus UNLV
      Trend Match (PLAY): BOISE STATE (-4 vs UNLV)

      (115) GEORGIA vs (116) ALABAMA
      * Underdogs are 7-5 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last 12 of the UGA-Bama set
      Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (+2.5 vs Georgia)

      (117) DUKE vs (118) VIRGINIA
      * VIRGINIA is on a run of 9-1 SU and ATS in the series with Duke
      Trend Match (PLAY): VIRGINIA (-3.5 vs Duke)

      (119) OHIO STATE vs (116) INDIANA
      * Over the total is 7-1 in the OSU-IU series since 2017
      Trend Match (PLAY OVER): OHIO ST-INDIANA (o/u at 48.5)

      ARMY vs NAVY
      * Underdogs are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 of the Army-Navy series
      Trend Match (PLAY): ARMY (+4.5 vs Navy)

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