The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked opponent have had their next game totals go Under at an 83-44 (65.4%) rate dating back to September of 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): OLE MISS-FLORIDA (o/u at 58.5)

* Higher-ranked home teams playing as single-digit favorites or underdogs against a worse-ranked opponent have gone 66-29 SU and 58-34-3 ATS (63%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LSU (-8.5 vs Texas A&M), USC (+3 vs Oregon)

• MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE is on a 0-10 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (FADE): MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (+7 at Jacksonville State)

* Big 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 42-19 (68.9%) rate in conference play since 2017
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NORTHWESTERN-INDIANA (spread IU -21, o/u at 49.5), ILLINOIS-OHIO STATE (spread OSU -27.5, o/u at 53.5)

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 10-2 (83.3%) to the Over in their last 12 as a road Favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SOUTH FLORIDA-BOWLING GREEN (o/u at 48.5)

* Home team are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups between VA Tech and Boston College
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+14 vs Virginia Tech)

#1 EFFECTIVE YARDS PER PLAY GAME DIFFERENCE THIS WEEK: SAM HOUSTON ST +34.5 at Texas Tech (EYPP line has SHSU +2.4)

#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: NORTH CAROLINA STATE -14 vs Appalachian State (projections have line at NC ST -19.5)

College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB Ranked Team System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
– In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 225-115 SU and 194-137-9 ATS (58.6%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE (+5.5 vs Texas), FLORIDA (-3 vs Ole Miss), MICHIGAN (-5.5 vs Iowa), LSU (-8.5 vs Texas A&M), USC (+3 vs Oregon), MISSISSIPPI STATE (-6.5 vs Missouri)

– Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 128-32 SU and 95-61-4 ATS (60.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LSU (-8.5 vs Texas A&M), USC (+3 vs Oregon)

– Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 66-29 SU and 58-34-3 ATS (63%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LSU (-8.5 vs Texas A&M), USC (+3 vs Oregon)

CFB Ranked Team System #6: Ranked home favorites of more than 14 points are 355-28 SU but just 168-211-4 ATS (44.3%) versus unranked conference opponents since October 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANA (-21 vs Northwestern), OHIO STATE (-27.5 vs Illinois)
*WATCH FOR GEORGIA (-14 vs Oklahoma)

CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15 ranked team are 124-89 SU but just 93-119-1 ATS (43.9%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OLE MISS (+3 at Florida), KENTUCKY (-20.5 vs South Alabama)

CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10 ranked team are just 137-147 SU and 125-157-2 ATS (44.3%) in the next game since October of 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WAKE FOREST (+12.5 at Louisville), ARKANSAS (-7 vs Tulsa)

CFB Ranked Team System #10: Ranked teams coming off a close loss of 7 points or fewer and playing an unranked team are 123-30 SU but just 64-85-4 ATS (43%) since December of 2015.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-18.5 at Georgia Southern)

CFB Ranked Team System #11: Ranked teams coming off a close win of 7 points or fewer where they didn’t cover the point spread, are on a 228-54 SU and 160-119-3 ATS (57.3%) surge when favored in the next game since October of 2015.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS TECH (-34.5 vs Sam Houston State)

CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 64-26 SU and 55-34-1 ATS (61.8%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SMU (-34.5 vs Missouri State), TEXAS A&M (+8.5 at LSU)

CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 85-40 SU but just 53-70-2 ATS (43.1%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KENTUCKY (-20.5 vs South Alabama), WEST VIRGINIA (-1.5 vs Oklahoma State)

CFB Ranked Team System #14: Teams still ranked even after losing as 7-point favorites or more are 75-36 SU but 44-65-2 ATS (40.4%) in the follow-up games.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (+8.5 at LSU)

These teams are also 65-45-1 Under the total (59.1%) in these next contests since September of 2016.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): Texas A&M-LSU (o/u at 51.5)

CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 73-97 SU and 75-92-3 ATS (44.9%) since September ‘19.
System Match (FADE): OLE MISS (+3 at Florida)

These teams are also 83-44 Under the total (65.4%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): Ole Miss-Florida (o/u at 58.5)

These detail top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* CFB teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 49-77 ATS (38.9%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): KENT STATE (-3.5 vs Ball State)

* Big 10 home favorites in the -17 to -30.5 line range with a total of <= 56 have gone Under the total at a 42-19 (68.9%) rate in conference play since 2017
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Northwestern-Indiana (spread IU -21, o/u at 49.5), Illinois-Ohio State (spread OSU -27.5, o/u at 53.5)

* Big 10 road favorites of -4 or less have gone 25-10 SU and 23-12 ATS (65.7%) in conference play since 2021
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UCLA (-1.5 at Maryland), OREGON (-3 at USC)

* Under the total is 71-49-1 (59.2%) in ACC expected-tight matchups (within -3.5 to +3.5 line range) with totals <= 55.5 since 2015
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): Clemson-California (spread Cal -1.5, o/u at 50.5), Georgia Tech-Stanford (spread GT -3.5, o/u at 48.5)

* Road favorites in the -3.5 to -10 line range in Sun Belt conference games are 69-30 SU and 59-40 (59.6%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-6 at Old Dominion)

* Favorites in the -7 to -12 line range in AAC games have gone 116-19 SU and 76-53-6 (58.9%) ATS since 2015
System Match (PLAY): NAVY (-7 at UAB)

* Home/neutral underdogs in the +2.5 to +5.5 line range in MAC games have seen their totals go Under at a 42-23 rate (64.6%) since 2015
System Match (PLAY UNDER): Massachusetts-Sacramento St (spread Sac St +4.5, o/u at 48.5)

Negative FADE trends:

• MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE is on a 0-10 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (FADE): MIDDLE TENNESSEE ST (+7 at Jacksonville St)

• USC has not handled outright road wins well, going 1-9 ATS in the next contest if against conference opponents
Trend Match (FADE): USC (+3 vs Oregon)

• MISSISSIPPI STATE is on a 0-9 ATS skid in conference play when coming off an upset win
Trend Match (FADE): MISSISSIPPI ST (-6.5 vs Missouri)

• HAWAII is just 4-18 ATS in its last 22 conference games when favored by single digits
Trend Match (FADE): HAWAII (-3 at Wyoming)

• STANFORD is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): STANFORD (+3.5 vs Georgia Tech)

• NEBRASKA is just 3-13-2 ATS in its last 18 games as a Big Ten favorite
Trend Match (FADE): NEBRASKA (-5.5 at Michigan State)

• TEMPLE is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 conference games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (FADE): TEMPLE (+3 vs Army)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• OLD DOMINION has won 10 of its last 13 games ATS as a conference underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): OLD DOMINION (+6 vs James Madison)

• MICHIGAN is 13-8 ATS in its last 21 games vs. Big Ten foes when coming off a home win
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-5.5 vs Iowa)

• LOUISVILLE is on an impressive 13-7 ATS surge as an ACC home favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISVILLE (-12.5 vs Wake Forest)

• LSU is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 SEC games when coming off a road loss
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (-8.5 vs Texas A&M)

Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 107-81 ATS (56.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CALIFORNIA (-1.5 vs Clemson), ILLINOIS (+27.5 at Ohio State), OKLAHOMA ST (+1.5 at West Virginia), SAM HOUSTON ST (+34.5 at Texas Tech), OREGON (-3 at USC)
*WATCH FOR: BOSTON COLLEGE vs VA Tech (if they get to +14.5, 14 CURRENTLY)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 153-196-1 ATS (43.8%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UNLV (-13.5 at Akron), SAM HOUSTON STATE (+34.5 at Texas Tech)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
Over the course of the last thirteen years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 162-121 ATS (57.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OREGON (-3 at USC), OKLAHOMA STATE (+1.5 at West Virginia), SAM HOUSTON STATE (+34.5 at Texas Tech), OHIO STATE (-27.5 vs Illinois)

Playing well offensively but losing is a good sign for next outing
College football teams that lost a game as an underdog despite gaining 550 or more yards on offense have bounced back well lately, going 62-48-2 ATS (56.4%) over the last 13 years.
System Match (PLAY): NORTH TEXAS (vs Houston Christian)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best & worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined as having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

* LSU is 17-10 SU and 15-10 ATS (60%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (-8.5 vs Texas A&M)

* KENT STATE is 11-26 SU but 22-15 ATS (59.5%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (-3.5 vs Ball State)

Home revenge angle that has thrived
Teams playing as huge underdogs at home in revenge games have been almost automatic covers, as those catching 30 points or more have gone 1-22 SU but 19-4 ATS (82.6%) in their last 23 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PURDUE vs NOTRE DAME (+27.5 CURRENTLY)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 232-183 ATS (55.9%) since 2016.
System Match (PLAY): KENT STATE (-3.5 vs Ball State)

These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

Friday, September 25, 2026

* TEMPLE is 24-13 (64.9%) ATS coming off SU Loss since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): TEMPLE (+3 vs Army)

* RUTGERS has gone 16-6 (72.7%) ATS in the last 22 Non-Conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): RUTGERS (vs Howard)

* UAB is 22-14 (61.1%) ATS at home since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): UAB (+7 vs Navy)

* CLEMSON is 26-15 (63.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
* CLEMSON is 14-8 (63.6%) ATS in the last 22 following up a SU loss
Trends Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (+1.5 at California)

Saturday, September 25, 2026

* AKRON is 19-32-1 (37.3%) ATS at home since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): AKRON (+13.5 vs UNLV)

* ALABAMA is on a 32-11 ATS (74.4%) surge at home
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (-12.5 vs South Carolina)

* ARIZONA is 21-34 (38.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-10 at Washington State)

* BALL STATE is 41-30-1 (57.7%) Under the total over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): Ball State-Kent State (o/u at 51.5)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 10-24 (29.4%) ATS in the last 34 games following up a SU win
* BOSTON COLLEGE is 29-18 (61.7%) ATS in Conference games since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+14 vs VA Tech)

* SOUTH FLORIDA is 10-2 (83.3%) to the Over in their last 12 as a road favorite
* BOWLING GREEN is 20-34 (37%) ATS as an underdog since 2019
Trends Match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (+17.5 vs S Florida), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* BUFFALO is 24-16-1 (60%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (vs Robert Morris)

* CINCINNATI is 6-18 ATS (25%) as an underdog since 2021
* CINCINNATI is 10-23 (30.3%) ATS in Conference games since 2022
Trends Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+6.5 vs Kansas St)

* CHARLOTTE is 5-21 (19.2%) ATS in the last 26 home games
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+10 vs LA Lafayette)

* COLORADO is 12-5 (70.6%) ATS in the last 17 games following a SU loss
Trend Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+10 at Baylor)

* DUKE is 36-18 (66.7%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (vs William & Mary)

* FLORIDA ATLANTIC is 8-18 (30.8%) ATS in the last 26 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-13.5 at UL Monroe)

* FRESNO STATE is 42-25-1 (62.7%) Under the total since 2021
* FRESNO STATE is 26-15 (63.4%) ATS coming off SU win since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY FRESNO STATE (-13.5 vs Rice), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44.5)

* GEORGIA is 13-23 (36.1%) ATS in the last 36 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA (-14 vs Oklahoma)

* GEORGIA STATE is 7-17 (29.2%) ATS in home games since 2022
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA STATE (-10 vs Northern Illinois)

* GEORGIA TECH is 12-28-1 ATS (30%) in the last 41 games as a Favorite
* STANFORD is 11-21-1 (34.4%) ATS in the last 32 home games
* STANFORD is 14-32 ATS (30.4%) following up an outright loss since 2019
Trends Match: 1 FADE GEORGIA TECH, 2 FADES STANFORD (spread GT -3.5)

* HAWAII is 15-27 (35.7%) ATS as favorite since 2015
* WYOMING is 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in their last 21 home Conference games as an underdog
Trends Match (PLAY): WYOMING (+3 vs Hawaii)

* ILLINOIS is 19-9 (67.9%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): ILLINOIS (+27.5 at Ohio State)

* IOWA STATE is 20-8 (71.4%) ATS as underdog since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): IOWA ST (+7.5 vs Utah)

* JAMES MADISON is 32-18 (64%) ATS as favorite since 2020
* OLD DOMINION is 12-26 (31.6%) ATS at home since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-6 at Old Dominion)

* SOUTH ALABAMA is 20-40 (33.3%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2014
* KENTUCKY is 22-9 (71%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (-20.5 vs S Alabama)

* UMASS is 1-9 ATS (10%) in the last 10 games as a favorite
Trend Match (FADE): UMASS (-4.5 at Sacramento St)

* MIAMI (OH) is on a 42-31-1 (57.5%) Under the total run over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UConn-Miami (OH) (o/u at 51.5)

* MISSOURI is 13-5 ATS (72.2%) in road/neutral games in last three seasons
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 22-14 (61.1%) ATS at home since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY MISSOURI, 1 PLAY MISSISSIPPI ST (spread MSST -6.5)

* NEW MEXICO is 11-21 (34.4%) ATS as favorite since 2018
* NEW MEXICO is 24-16 (60%) Over the total in last three seasons
Trends Match: FADE NEW MEXICO (-11.5 at NM State), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* NC STATE is 6-15 ATS (28.6%) in Non-Conference games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NC STATE (-14 vs App State)

* NOTRE DAME is 33-12 ATS (73.3%) in road/neutral games in the last seven seasons
* PURDUE is 8-20 ATS (28.6%) at home over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-27.5 at Purdue)

* OLE MISS is 16-23-2 (41%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (+3 at Florida)

* OREGON STATE is 27-15 (64.3%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2016
* UTEP is 10-25 (28.6%) ATS at home since 2020
* UTEP is 12-28 ATS (30%) in Non-Conference games since 2017
Trends Match (PLAY): OREGON ST (-10.5 at UTEP)

* PENN STATE is 38-24 (61.3%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN ST (-10 vs Wisconsin)

* PITTSBURGH is 48-30 (61.5%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): Bucknell-Pittsburgh

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 55-31 (64%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): San Diego State-Toledo (o/u at 52.5)

* TENNESSEE is 6-15 (28.6%) ATS as an underdog since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): TENNESSEE (+5.5 vs Texas)

* TEXAS A&M is 7-13 SU and 6-13-2 ATS (31.6%) on the road since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS A&M (+8.5 at LSU)

* TROY is 25-8 (75.8%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TROY (+3 at Utah St)

* TULANE is 52-30-1 (63.4%) ATS as favorite since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-18.5 vs Southern Miss)

* TULSA is 27-16-1 (62.8%) ATS in road/neutral games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TULSA (+7 at Arkansas)

* UNLV is 20-2 (90.9%) ATS in their last 22 road Non-Conference games
Trend Match (PLAY): UNLV (-13.5 at Akron)

* USC is 38-19 ATS (66.7%) Over the total in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): Oregon-USC (o/u at 62.5)

* WASHINGTON is 4-12 ATS (25%) following outright wins since 2024
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-10 vs Minnesota)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 23-14 ATS (62.2%) at home in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (-1.5 vs Oklahoma St)

These are the top head-to-head series trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(305) ARMY at (306) TEMPLE
* Road teams are 3-3 SU but 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Black Knights-Owls series
Trend Match (PLAY): ARMY (-3 at Temple)

(309) NORTHWESTERN at (310) INDIANA
* Favorites are on runs of 7-0 SU and 5-0 ATS in the NU-IU Big Ten set
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-21 vs Northwestern)

(317) NEBRASKA at (318) MICHIGAN STATE
* Underdogs are 2-4 SU but 5-1 ATS in the last six of the Huskers-Spartans series
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN STATE (+5.5 vs Nebraska)

(323) WAKE FOREST at (324) LOUISVILLE
* Underdogs are 5-4 SU and 9-0 ATS in the WF-UL ACC set since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): WAKE FOREST (+12.5 at Louisville)

(329) IOWA at (330) MICHIGAN
* MICHIGAN is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings with Iowa
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (-5.5 vs Iowa)

(341) OLE MISS at (342) FLORIDA
* Underdogs are 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Rebels-Gators SEC series
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (+3 at Florida)

(343) VIRGINIA TECH at (344) BOSTON COLLEGE
* Home teams are 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine matchups between VA Tech and BC
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (+14 vs Virginia Tech)

(357) WISCONSIN at (358) PENN STATE
* PENN STATE has won and covered eight of their last nine meetings with Wisconsin
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-9.5 vs Wisconsin)

(361) BALL STATE at (362) KENT STATE
* Home teams are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in the last 11 of Cardinals-Golden Flashes series
Trend Match (PLAY): KENT ST (-3.5 vs Ball St)

(363) OKLAHOMA STATE at (364) WEST VIRGINIA
* OKLAHOMA STATE has won and covered their last five trips to Morgantown
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (+1.5 at West Virginia)

(371) HAWAII at (372) WYOMING
* Home teams are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in last eight of the Hawaii-Wyoming set
Trend Match (PLAY): WYOMING (+3 vs Hawaii)

(383) TEXAS A&M at (362) LSU
* Over the total is 8-2 in the last 10 Aggies-Tigers SEC matchups
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEXAS A&M-LSU (o/u at 51.5)

(385) SOUTHERN MISS at (386) TULANE
* Favorites are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine of the USM-Tulane series
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-18.5 vs Southern Miss)

(393) SOUTH CAROLINA at (394) ALABAMA
* Underdogs are 2-6 SU but 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Gamecocks-Crimson Tide set
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (+12.5 at Alabama)

(395) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (396) LA MONROE
* Road teams are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine of the FAU-ULM series
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-13.5 at ULM)

Comparing Effective Yards Per Play Ratings to This Week’s Matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Monday, September 21, 2026, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, as far as differential of EYPP ratings versus actual point spreads, with home field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic.

1. (387) SAM HOUSTON STATE at (388) TEXAS TECH
Actual Line: TEXAS TECH -34.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: TEXAS TECH -2.4
Difference: 32.1 – Favors: SAM HOUSTON ST

2. (333) SOUTH ALABAMA at (334) KENTUCKY
Actual Line: KENTUCKY -20.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: KENTUCKY -48.5
Difference: 28 – Favors: KENTUCKY

3. (337) SAN DIEGO STATE at (338) TOLEDO
Actual Line: TOLEDO -3
Effective Yards per Play Line: TOLEDO -28.8
Difference: 25.8 – Favors: TOLEDO

4. (383) TEXAS A&M at (384) LSU
Actual Line: LSU -8.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: LSU -31.5
Difference: 23 – Favors: LSU

5. (375) MISSOURI at (376) MISSISSIPPI STATE
Actual Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE -6.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: MISSISSIPPI STATE -28.2
Difference: 21.7 – Favors: MISSISSIPPI STATE

6. (373) MASSACHUSETTS at (374) SACRAMENTO STATE
Actual Line: MASSACHUSETTS -4.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: SACRAMENTO STATE +20.1
Difference: 15.6 – Favors: MASSACHUSETTS

7. (327) TEXAS at (328) TENNESSEE
Actual Line: TEXAS -5.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: TENNESSEE -10
Difference: 15.5 – Favors: TENNESSEE

8. (329) IOWA at (330) MICHIGAN
Actual Line: MICHIGAN -5.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: MICHIGAN +9.7
Difference: 15.2 – Favors: IOWA

9. (367) AIR FORCE at (368) NEVADA
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -5.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: NEVADA -9.6
Difference: 15.1 – Favors: NEVADA

10. (343) VIRGINIA TECH at (344) BOSTON COLLEGE
Actual Line: VIRGINIA TECH -14
Effective Yards per Play Line: BOSTON COLLEGE -0.3
Difference: 14.3 – Favors: BOSTON COLLEGE

11. (307) NAVY at (308) UAB
Actual Line: NAVY -7
Effective Yards per Play Line: UAB -6.9 
Difference: 13.9 – Favors: UAB

12. (317) NEBRASKA at (318) MICHIGAN STATE 
Actual Line: NEBRASKA -5.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE +18.2 
Difference: 12.7 – Favors: NEBRASKA

13. (341) OLE MISS at (342) FLORIDA
Actual Line: FLORIDA -3   
Effective Yards per Play Line: FLORIDA -15.8
Difference: 12.8 – Favors: FLORIDA

14. (401) NEW MEXICO at (402) NEW MEXICO STATE
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO -11.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: NEW MEXICO STATE +0.1
Difference: 11.4 – Favors: NEW MEXICO STATE

15. (339) DELAWARE at (340) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA -19.5
Effective Yards per Play Line: VIRGINIA -7.3
Difference: 12.2 – Favors: DELAWARE

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 621-684 ATS (47.6%). This angle has produced consistently over the last four seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in four straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CALIFORNIA, AKRON, VIRGINIA TECH, BALL STATE, OHIO STATE, UCLA, NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA STATE, TCU, UTAH, UCONN, NEW MEXICO, BOISE STATE, HOUSTON, JAMES MADISON, MIAMI (FL), ARKANSAS STATE, TULANE, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, NC STATE, OREGON, ARIZONA, OREGON STATE, FRESNO STATE, AIR FORCE, GEORGIA TECH, MINNESOTA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 265-282 ATS (48.4%). In 2022 it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. Last year it was six games over .500. I personally believe that performance will prove to be a fluke. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of BETS page >75%, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): OHIO STATE, TOLEDO, KENTUCKY, GEORGIA, PENN STATE, VIRGINIA, MIAMI (FL), ARKANSAS STATE, TULANE, WEST VIRGINIA, SMU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 377-421 ATS (47.2%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NAVY, VIRGINIA TECH, TEXAS, UCLA, NOTRE DAME, HAWAII, TCU, UTAH, NEW MEXICO, BOISE STATE, HOUSTON, SOUTH FLORIDA, NEBRASKA, JAMES MADISON, KANSAS STATE, OREGON, ARIZONA, OREGON STATE, UMASS, AIR FORCE, GEORGIA TECH

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 68%+ majority of the HANDLE was on small home favorites of 7 points or fewer for an ATS wager since the start of the 2023 season, this majority group is 84-69 ATS (54.9%). Bettors are wisely valuing home field advantage in these games that are expected to be competitive.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CALIFORNIA, ARKANSAS ST, UTAH ST, MISSISSIPPI ST

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 163-146-2 ATS (52.8%). This is a pretty good percentage for a high volume simple based system, and a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALL STATE, WAKE FOREST, COLORADO STATE, SOUTH ALABAMA, OLE MISS, UCONN, IOWA, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, TULSA, MISSOURI STATE, MINNESOTA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When a majority of 55% or more of number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past four seasons, this majority group has gone 158-139-1 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEMSON, COLORADO STATE, OLE MISS, UCONN, IOWA, MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE, TULSA, MINNESOTA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their record since the start of 2022 is 296-241 (55.1%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COASTAL CAROLINA, ARMY, NAVY, INDIANA, CLEMSON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5-points or more. In most cases, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 97-80 ATS (54.8%) over the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OHIO STATE, MIAMI (FL)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 69-58 (54.3%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): VIRGINIA TECH-BOSTON COLLEGE, HAWAII-WYOMING, OKLAHOMA-GEORGIA, UTAH-IOWA STATE, NEBRASKA-MICHIGAN STATE, JAMES MADISON-OLD DOMINION, TROY-UTAH STATE, ARIZONA-WASHINGTON STATE, GEORGIA TECH-STANFORD, MINNESOTA-WASHINGTON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #11: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 211-182 (53.7%). This also does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): WISCONSIN-PENN STATE, JAMES MADISON-OLD DOMINION, RICE-FRESNO STATE, MINNESOTA-WASHINGTON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #12: Since the start of the 2022 season, majority handle bettors have been quite sharp in two different contrarian ways for betting totals in non-conference games. When greater than 80% majorities have gotten behind Overs for totals of less than 55, they’ve gone 67-36 (65%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAN DIEGO STATE-TOLEDO, UCONN-MIAMI (OH), NEW MEXICO-NEW MEXICO STATE, BOISE STATE-WESTERN MICHIGAN, SOUTH FLORIDA-BOWLING GREEN, DELAWARE-VIRGINIA, LA LAFAYETTE-CHARLOTTE, RICE-FRESNO STATE

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA STATE +10 (+5.5)
2. CLEMSON +1.5 (+5.4)
3. ILLINOIS +27.5 (+4.6)
4. MISSOURI +6.5 (+4.1)
5. VANDERBILT +9.5 (+3.8)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NC STATE -14 (+5.5)
2. TULANE -18.5 (+5.0)
3. GEORGIA TECH -3.5 (+4.7)
4. PENN STATE -10 (+4.3)
5. JACKSONVILLE ST -7 (+4.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAM HOUSTON STATE +34.5 (+23)
2. NORTHWESTERN +21 (+15.1)
3. AKRON +13.5 (+10.7)
4. IOWA +5.5 (+9.1)
5. UAB +7 (+9.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW MEXICO -11.5 (+9.2)
2. MIAMI (FL) -41.5 (+7.4)
3(tie). MISSISSIPPI STATE -6.5 (+5.9)
LOUISVILLE -12.5 (+5.9)
5. NOTRE DAME -27.5 (+4.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. JAMES MADISON-OLD DOMINION OVER 44.5 (+6.2)
2. GEORGIA TECH-STANFORD OVER 48.5 (+5.9)
3. SOUTH FLORIDA-BOWLING GREEN OVER 48.5 (+5.5)
4. UNLV-AKRON OVER 52.5 (+4.9)
5. OREGON-USC OVER 62.5 (+4.6)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON-GEORGIA SOUTHERN UNDER 56.5 (-3.3)
2. NOTRE DAME-PURDUE UNDER 58.5 (-2.9)
3(tie). NEBRASKA-MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 48.5 (-2.7)
OKLAHOMA STATE-WEST VIRGINIA UNDER 60.5 (-2.7)
5. MISSOURI-MISSISSIPPI STATE UNDER 58.5 (-2.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. COLORADO STATE +13.5 (+6.5)
2. ILLINOIS +27.5 (+6.1)
3. NORTHERN ILLINOIS +10 (+6.0)
4. WYOMING +3 (+5.4)
5. TENNESSEE +5.5 (+4.4)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GEORGIA TECH -3.5 (+7.0)
2. VIRGINIA TECH -14 (+5.8)
3. NC STATE -14 (+5.4)
4. LIBERTY -2.5 (+5.2)
5. OREGON -3 (+3.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA-GEORGIA OVER 44.5 (+7.7)
2. LA LAFAYETTE-CHARLOTTE OVER 48.5 (+5.7)
3(tie). VIRGINIA TECH-BOSTON COLLEGE OVER 48.5 (+5.6)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE-JACKSONVILLE STATE OVER 51.5 (+5.6)
5. BALL STATE-KENT STATE OVER 51.5 (+4.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CENTRAL MICHIGAN-MIAMI (FL) UNDER 53.5 (-6.4)
2. SAN DIEGO STATE-TOLEDO UNDER 52.5 (-6.1)
3. COLORADO-BAYLOR UNDER 55.5 (-5.8)
4. MISSOURI STATE-SMU UNDER 59.5 (-4.2)
5. OREGON-USC UNDER 62.5 (-2.3)

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Steve Makinen
Steve Makinen
As one of the original founders of StatFox, Steve Makinen has been in the business of sports betting and data analysis for almost 25 years now. In his time in the industry, Steve has worked in a variety of capacities on both sides of the betting counter, from his early days of developing the StatFox business, to almost a decade of oddsmaking consulting for one of the world's leading sportsbooks, to his last seven years as Point Spread Weekly and Analytics Director with VSiN. Steve has always believed that number crunching and handicapping through foundational trends and systems is the secret to success and he shares this data with VSiN readers on a daily basis for all of the major sports.

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