Week 4 College Football Power Ratings and Projections for Every Game

Week 4 College Football Power Ratings

This is going to be a big week for me and for a lot of people out there. I have a lot more discrepancies in my lines than I’ve had in any other week and I’m assuming that a lot of other people who make their own numbers are seeing the same thing. Now that we’re three games in for most teams, opinions are going to get stronger and so are the positions being taken.

It is very difficult because we’ve seen some wildly different performances from a lot of teams. One of the other things that we’ve seen this week is that the bad teams have really been downgraded significantly. The good teams are still rated highly and haven’t really been downgraded much, even if they’ve played with their food, so to speak, in some of these games against lesser opponents.

From a volume standpoint, this will be a busier week for me and many others, so we’ll get to pay to see if we’re right or wrong on a lot of these games. It’s about that time. The market won’t always be right. You won’t always be right. But, there does come a week over the course of the season where a lot of factors come together to create a bigger betting card. Now, I will say that some teams have just been so Jekyll and Hyde that I don’t trust my rating on them in some cases, but more clarity is coming soon, especially with so many teams now into conference play as the first month of the season winds down.

I’ve been aggressive with moving some teams and less aggressive moving others. Remember, my three-step process is to compare my line to the closing line, check out the box score, and scour for any early injury information. Misleading box scores often lead to some betting equity on teams and some of those teams are ones that I have under-adjusted relative to what others have done. So, we’ll see if those outcomes were fluky or not.

Week 4 College Football Power Ratings

Rank	Team	PR	HFA
1	Notre Dame	92.5	3.5
2	Indiana	91.5	3.5
3	Ohio State	91.5	3.5
4	Miami (Florida)	91	3
5	Georgia	90.5	2.5
6	Texas	90.5	3.5
7	LSU	86	3
8	Oregon	86	3.5
9	Alabama	85.5	3.5
10	Mississippi	85	3.5
11	Florida	84.5	2
12	USC	84.5	3
13	Penn State	82	2.5
14	Texas A&M	82	2
15	Utah	81.5	2.5
16	Tennessee	81	2.5
17	Louisville	80.5	3.5
18	Texas Tech	80	3.5
19	BYU	79.5	3.5
20	Auburn	78.5	2
21	Oklahoma	78.5	3
22	SMU	78	3.5
23	Houston	77.5	2
24	Kansas State	77.5	3
25	Mississippi State	77.5	2
26	Missouri	77.5	3.5
27	Nebraska	77.5	2
28	Michigan	77	2.5
29	Kentucky	76.5	2
30	Arizona	76	3
31	Virginia Tech	76	2
32	Washington	76	3.5
33	UCLA	75.5	1.5
34	Virginia	75.5	2
35	Iowa	75	3.5
36	Pittsburgh	75	2.5
37	South Carolina	74.5	2.5
38	Boise State	74	3.5
39	Illinois	72.5	2.5
40	Northwestern	72.5	1.5
41	Vanderbilt	72.5	2.5
42	Arizona State	72	2
43	Duke	72	2.5
44	Wake Forest	72	2
45	Baylor	71.5	1.5
46	Florida State	71.5	2.5
47	TCU	71.5	2.5
48	West Virginia	71.5	2
49	Wisconsin	71.5	2
50	Michigan State	70.5	1.5
51	Oklahoma State	70.5	2
52	Clemson	69.5	2.5
53	Kansas	69.5	2.5
54	UCF	69.5	2
55	Georgia Tech	69	2
56	North Carolina State	69	2.5
57	Maryland	68.5	2
58	Minnesota	68.5	2.5
59	Memphis	68	2.5
60	North Carolina	68	2
61	North Dakota State	67	3.5
62	New Mexico	66.5	2
63	Purdue	66.5	1
64	California	66	2
65	Cincinnati	66	1.5
66	Syracuse	65.5	2.5
67	Iowa State	65	2.5
68	UTSA	65	3.5
69	Arkansas	64.5	1.5
70	Colorado	63.5	2.5
71	James Madison	63.5	3.5
72	UNLV	63	2.5
73	Oregon State	62.5	3.5
74	Western Michigan	62.5	3.5
75	Air Force	62	2
76	Navy	61.5	2.5
77	South Florida	61.5	3
78	Tulane	61.5	2.5
79	San Diego State	61	2
80	Army	60.5	2.5
81	Stanford	60.5	1.5
82	Fresno State	60	2
83	Texas State	60	2
84	Tulsa	60	1
85	Boston College	59.5	2
86	North Texas	59.5	2.5
87	Rutgers	59.5	2
88	Colorado State	59	2
89	Florida Atlantic	59	1.5
90	Troy	59	3
91	East Carolina	58.5	2
92	Washington State	58.5	3
93	Connecticut	58	3
94	Delaware	58	1
95	Miami (Ohio)	57.5	3.5
96	Toledo	57.5	3.5
97	Louisiana-Lafayette	57	2
98	Temple	57	2
99	Arkansas State	56.5	2.5
100	Hawai’i	56.5	3
101	Nevada	56.5	1
102	Utah State	56.5	3
103	Appalachian State	56	2
104	Florida International	56	2
105	Georgia Southern	56	3.5
106	Jacksonville State	56	3.5
107	Marshall	56	3.5
108	Liberty	55.5	2.5
109	Old Dominion	55.5	1.5
110	Georgia State	54.5	1
111	Louisiana Tech	54	2
112	South Alabama	54	2
113	Ohio	53.5	3.5
114	Middle Tennessee	53	1.5
115	San Jose State	53	2.5
116	Coastal Carolina	52.5	2
117	UAB	52	2.5
118	Kennesaw State	51	2.5
119	Sam Houston State	50.5	2
120	Eastern Michigan	50	2.5
121	New Mexico State	50	2.5
122	Rice	49.5	3
123	Western Kentucky	49	3
124	Wyoming	48	2
125	Missouri State	47.5	2
126	Central Michigan	47	3
127	Buffalo	46	2
128	Akron	45	2
129	Northern Illinois	44.5	1.5
130	Southern Mississippi	44.5	2
131	Ball State	44	3
132	Kent State	44	1
133	Louisiana-Monroe	44	2
134	UTEP	44	1
135	Massachusetts	43.5	1
136	Bowling Green	42	2
137	Charlotte	41.5	1
138	Sacramento State	37.5	2

Week 4 PR Adjustments

Up: Wake Forest +3, Houston +1.5, North Carolina +1, Temple +1.5, Miami (OH) +1.5, Kentucky +3, Utah +2, Baylor +1, Mississippi State +2.5, Florida Atlantic +1.5, Georgia State +3, Middle Tennessee +2, West Virginia +3.5, Northwestern +3, New Mexico +1.5, Colorado State +1.5, Michigan State +3.5, UAB +1.5, James Madison +1.5, Arizona +1.5, Oregon State +2.5, Mississippi +1.5, Louisville +1.5, Troy +2, Nebraska +1, Tulsa +1.5, Purdue +2.5, UConn +3

Down: Pitt -1.5, Texas Tech -3, Kent State -2.5, Akron -1.5, Arkansas -1.5, Wyoming -4, Cincinnati -2.5, UTEP -3, USC -1.5, Texas A&M -3, Louisiana Tech -2.5, South Carolina -1.5, App State -1.5, Virginia -1.5, Colorado -3.5, Oklahoma -4, Kennesaw State -3, San Diego State -4.5, Northern Illinois -1.5, Fresno State -5, Boston College -2.5, Western Kentucky -3, LSU -1.5, Missouri -1, Iowa State -2, Stanford -3, East Carolina -2.5, Old Dominion -2, Southern Miss -2.5, Bowling Green -3, UCLA -2.5, Sacramento State -3

Some notes on the biggest movers:

Michigan State +3.5: Sparty didn’t look great on offense against Notre Dame, but provided some nice defensive resistance. This is a team I want to play-on more often than not going forward, so I’ll get ahead of the market a bit.

West Virginia +3.5: Seems RichRod has his QB. Eleven total TD so far for Michael Hawkins Jr., including 7.3 yards per carry and six rushing scores. Remember the age of the dual-threat QB in college football? We’re bringing it back in Morgantown!

Georgia State +3: Not going to talk about all the +/- 3 teams, but Georgia State has really exceeded expectations thus far after being one of the worst teams in the country last year. It seems like they’ve got a lot more talent than they previously did and I don’t think many have noticed.

Fresno State -5: It seems as though I had to make a big adjustment here, as my line against San Jose State wound up being off by quite a bit. Of course, Fresno State did win and cover, but was +4 in TO and didn’t really take advantage of that.

San Diego State -4.5: Yeesh. Ugly effort against a James Madison team going all the way to Cali for a late game. It seems that they are not very good.

Wyoming -4: Lots of chatter out there about Jay Sawvel getting fired. This is just a team devoid of talent right now. Life after Craig Bohl hasn’t been great, but the overall philosophy to try and run the ball and play defense isn’t terribly effective in 2026.

Oklahoma -4: How quickly has John Mateer’s stock fallen? Damn.

My Week 4 College Football Lines

(note: games are ordered by rotation number)

Date	Away	Home	Line
9/24	Liberty	Coastal Carolina	+1
9/25	Army	Temple	+1.5
	Navy	UAB	+7
	Northwestern	Indiana	-22.5
	Clemson	Cal	+1.5
9/26	UCLA	Maryland	+5
	Louisiana	Charlotte	+14.5
	Nebraska	Michigan State	+5.5
	UConn	Miami (OH)	-3
	App State	NC State	-15.5
	Wake Forest	Louisville	-12
	South Florida	Bowling Green	+17.5
	Texas	Tennessee	+7
	Iowa	Michigan	-4.5
	UNLV	Akron	+16
	South Alabama	Kentucky	-24.5
	James Madison	Old Dominion	+6.5
	San Diego State	Toledo	PK
	Delaware	Virginia	-19.5
	Mississippi	Florida	-1.5
	Virginia Tech	Boston College	+14.5
	Kansas State	Cincinnati	+10
	Boise State	Western Michigan	+8
	TCU	UCF	PK
	Northern Illinois	Georgia State	-11
	Oklahoma	Georgia	-14.5
	Illinois	Ohio State	-22.5
	Wisconsin	Penn State	-13
	Notre Dame	Purdue	+25
	Ball State	Kent State	-1
	Oklahoma State	West Virginia	-3
	Houston	Georgia Southern	+18
	Air Force	Nevada	+4.5
	Minnesota	Washington	-11
	Hawaii	Wyoming	+6.5
	UMass	Sacramento State	+4
	Missouri	Mississippi State	-2
	Missouri State	SMU	-34
	Colorado	Baylor	-9.5
	Tulsa	Arkansas	-6
	Texas A&M	LSU	-7
	Southern Miss	Tulane	-19.5
	Sam Houston	Texas Tech	-33
	Vanderbilt	Auburn	-8
	Colorado State	UTSA	-9.5
	South Carolina	Alabama	-14.5
	FAU	ULM	+13
	Utah	Iowa State	+14
	Oregon	USC	-1.5
	New Mexico	New Mexico State	+14
	Central Michigan	Miami (FL)	-47
	Kennesaw State	Arkansas State	-8
	Middle Tennessee	Jacksonville State	-6.5
	Troy	Utah State	-0.5
	Arizona	Washington State	+14.5
	Oregon State	UTEP	+17.5
	Rice	Fresno State	-12.5
	Georgia Tech	Stanford	+7

Games to consider:

UCLA -2 (-5) at Maryland: Interesting to see what happens here. UCLA has taken some sharp money early this season and I reacted to that. Did I overreact? It’s a 1:30 p.m. ET kick here, so not quite as early as usual.

Texas -4 (-7) at Tennessee: I guess we’ll see if Faizon Brandon is for real. Texas was underwhelming against UTSA last week and not very good for three quarters against Ohio State, so maybe I haven’t downgraded them enough.

Kansas State -6.5 (-10) at Cincinnati: The Bearcats beat the Miami RedHawks over the weekend, but it wasn’t pretty at all. Meanwhile, Avery Johnson is humming in Collin Klein’s offense – by the way, I have the Wildcats favored in every game the rest of the way and Johnson is 80/1 at DK to win the Heisman.

Illinois +27.5 (+22.5) at Ohio State: Lots of road teams here. Not sure why. Will have to think about that. Either way, pretty big number for the Buckeyes here and I don’t think Illinois has done much to move off of what their perception was coming into the season.

Penn State -9.5 (-13.5) vs. Wisconsin: The Badgers finally got on track to beat up on Eastern Michigan, but as you know, that’s a team I’ve been very low on. The 9.5s were becoming 10s as I was writing this, so others also think this line was short.

Missouri +6 (+2) at Mississippi State: Kamario Fever is taking over the world. I still think Missouri and former Ole Miss QB Austin Simmons are pretty good, even though Simmons didn’t do much last week.

USC +2.5 (-1.5) vs. Oregon: I have two wrong-side favorites. The other is Clemson vs. Cal on Friday. I’m less excited about that one. I do like this one, though. Embarrassing Portland State doesn’t move the needle for me, even if USC let Rutgers play tight.

Miami -41.5 (-47.5) vs. Central Michigan: No team in the nation has thrown for fewer yards than Central Michigan and they are the only FBS team without a passing TD. Do we really think they can run at all on Miami?

Oregon State -12.5 (-17.5) at UTEP: UTEP is one of the nation’s worst teams. Braden Atkinson is lighting it up for the Beavers and JaMarcus Shephard has no problem letting him rip it around the yard. I think they’re trying to establish a new culture and identity there and that means not taking any mercy in games like this.

I’ll be posting this weekly Power Ratings update all season long, including my lines on the games. Keep it locked in right here at VSiN and bookmark our weekly College Football Hub to get all of our written content every week during CFB season.