College Football Playoff Semifinal Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

One of my most reliable handicapping angles is to bet on a good team after it takes a bad loss. Notre Dame and Ohio State, the favorites in the College Football Playoff semifinals, perfectly exhibit how an ugly loss can put a team back on the right track. The Fighting Irish have won 12 in a row since being stunned 16-14 by Northern Illinois on Sept. 7. The Buckeyes have won their two playoff games in blowouts since being upset by three-touchdown underdog Michigan on Nov. 30. Will we see a Notre Dame-Ohio State showdown for the national championship? Here are my CFP best bets for this week:

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Notre Dame (-1.5) vs. Penn State

Orange Bowl

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The biggest concern for the Irish is their offense, especially the lack of a passing attack against an elite defense. In a Sugar Bowl victory over Georgia, Riley Leonard attempted 24 passes and threw for only 90 yards, with a long completion of 14 yards. Notre Dame produces few explosive plays. Jayden Harrison’s 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to open the second half was a big reason the Irish were able to grind out a 23-10 win against the Bulldogs. Jeremiyah Love’s 98-yard run early in the first quarter was the catalyst for Notre Dame in its first-round victory over Indiana. The Irish totaled 244 yards against Georgia, with running backs Love and Jadarian Price combining for only 56 yards on 16 carries. Love is nowhere near 100 percent because of a knee injury, and while he will play Thursday, he might not be a big-play threat. The Irish must rely on a defense that ranks second in the nation in scoring (13.6 ppg).

Penn State has a well-rounded offense with improving quarterback Drew Allar, star tight end Tyler Warren and running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Allen and Singleton combined for 24 carries and 229 yards in a 45-37 loss to Oregon in the Big Ten title game. In a Fiesta Bowl victory over Boise State, Allen and Singleton combined for 221 yards on 29 carries. Allar will need to be an effective passer to stretch out the Notre Dame defense. The Nittany Lions are also elite defensively when end Abdul Carter is on the field, and Carter is expected to return from an injury to play. Penn State’s James Franklin has been far from an elite coach in big games, so his decision-making will be crucial in the biggest game of his career.

This game should be a grinder similar to Notre Dame-Georgia. Leonard, who ran for 80 yards against the Bulldogs, will be forced to carry the offense. My bet on Notre Dame at 10-1 odds to win the CFP is my bet on the side. If the Irish win, it’s likely to be by a narrow margin, so I’m doing something I rarely do in college football and playing a teaser.

College Football Best Bets: Notre Dame-Penn State Under 45 and a 6.5-point teaser with Penn State +8/Ohio State +1.

Ohio State (-5.5) vs. Texas

Cotton Bowl

Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Buckeyes foolishly tried to beat Michigan with a power running attack that backfired. Ohio State coach Ryan Day and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly fixed their play-calling mistakes and went back to their identity — spreading the ball around to their playmakers in space — and it paid off in overwhelming wins against Tennessee and Oregon. The awesome potential of this Buckeyes offense was obvious when the top-ranked Ducks were getting skunked 34-0 in the second quarter of the Rose Bowl. When veteran quarterback Will Howard is feeding the ball to receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka and running backs TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State can appear unstoppable. A Texas defense that was labeled elite during the regular season has looked vulnerable in the playoffs. The Longhorns allowed 412 yards and 24 points to Clemson in the first round before being outgained 510-375 in a 39-31 double-overtime victory over Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is often erratic and doesn’t have as many playmakers to bail him out of tight spots. Ewers will need to elevate his play to trade shots with the Buckeyes.

The impressive firepower of Ohio State’s offense, coupled with its No. 1-ranked scoring defense (12.1 pgg), indicates this one could get away from the Longhorns. I was not a major proponent of the Buckeyes for most of the season, but they have their swagger back and there are reasons to believe they will take care of business. I lean to the Big Ten favorite at -5.5, but I’m an underdog player who rarely lays more than three points in a game.

College Football Best Bets: Ohio State moneyline (-230) and a 6.5-point teaser with Penn State +8/Ohio State +1.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread
Season record: 42-41-2

For more college football playoff analysis, visit the College Football Playoff Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR