Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Thursday, May 21 racing card at Churchill Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Michael’s Cove (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Michael’s Cove
2. Keep On Moving
3. Bob’s Carrot
MICHAEL’S COVE won his career debut late in his 2yo season – ironically, at age 4, he is just now seems truly to be coming to hand. Took the big leap forward two back making second start after of this form cycle, and showed in the move to CD dirt from TP Tapeta that we should pretty much ignore his first CD dirt race. TimeformUs suggests he did get quite a favorable pace setup, but I still liked his stretch run – it’s not easy for a relatively inexperienced horse, especially switching surfaces, to be taken down to the rail in the homestretch and maintain momentum – MC did not, and when finally back fully on stride the final furlong finished very well and galloped out even better – like this 7f trip will really suit him. Gets a pace at a price. I’ll guess, based on the overall form profile, that KEEP ON MOVING’s most recent race in a $50K “B” claimer, a race that could easily win this, is repeatable. Chart says that he “hung,” but that doesn’t seem fair – slow-paced race and the winner did not come back – KOM got his last furlong in a robust 11.64. The 7f is a go. Not anything like a burner but does have a hint of tactical versaility. Really irks me for some reason when horses are raced outside their condition – like BOB’S CARROT, an N2L horse in an N3L race. He’s the inside speed – perhaps dangerous speed. Fresh and fast works (no video).
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other seven races on Thursday’s Churchill Downs card.
First Race
1. Valentine Eve
2. Belden Rue
3. Go New York Go
Work video available for only La Belle Vie and Belden Rue. Unfortunate – mainly flying blind. Trainer C Munoz has two firsters: Munoz the last five years on the KY circuit – three 2yo firsters finished 12th, 11th, 7th. Second-timer Lack of Riesling blinkers on? Dunno what that means. Horse that beat her at KEE showed little in GP turf stake – and the KEE race came back pretty slow. As for La Belle Vie, she had a couple decent-looking drills and several others less so, especially 5/12 – though, as always, W Ward breezes can be hard to read. Struggles at times to change leads in homestretch. Neither of the two KEE works on video for firster VALENTINE EVE, who RNA’d for $60K at a 2yo sale, stays with breeders. Just those two works suggest plenty done before coming to the track, presumably at the Asmussen training center in Laredo. Quick 3f from gate bodes well for this 4 1/2-furlong trip, which might be on the short side for BELDEN RUE? Broke better in second gate work than first, both against an unraced maiden, both inside, BR coming through in stretch to “win,” albeit under a drive. Maybe GO NEW YORK GO did run herself out when pulling very hard to half-mile pole in her debut at this level – she had little to offer once clear and was fading late – wouldn’t want the listed odds.
Second Race
1. R Pretty Kitty
2. Baytown Butterfly
3. Sassy Princess
No Lasix, stakes company (albeit restricted) and a muddy Oaklawn surface, her first race over a wet track – that’s three plausible excuses for the step back R PRETTY KITTY took last time. If you’re willing to buy any of them, she should win this race. Clever claim out of the $20K N2L race four back that got her eligible for this starter-allowance level and has held the higher level she hit first start for new connections. Outside draw in a short field perfect spot for her preferred trip and would guess this 6.5f distance at least as suitable as the straight 6. BAYTOWN BUTTERFLY won in November first off the claim and has not seen a claiming tag since. Has lost three straight, but if you buy the Beyers has continued progressing. Definite progress from first two second races this form cycle – flat in the first one, had some late spark last time, and would certainly prefer her here over the Musical Prayer, who saved third in the same OP race thanks to the wire. Despite having made 23 starts, she still looks like a 4yo on the upswing. SASSY PRINCESS just hit a peak 13 days ago racing a one-turn mile, now backs up to 6.5f with a rail draw that really complicates the trip. Not supposed to take a short price here even if you’re feeling that old Jacobson magic stirring again in last couple weeks.
Third Race
1. Play It Again
2. Dee Snook
3. Randie’s Rascal
Not to be “that guy” who goes on amateurishly about stride type and so forth – but, geez, does PLAY IT AGAIN seem to have turf action. Still like the way he’s worked in all the breeze video, though wonder if 5f will prove to be on the short side for him. Liked the look of a DEE SNOOK work video enough that I touted him to win the Royal Palm Juvenile – scratched and shows up here instead. Play It Again might be a little price, but DS should definitely be one. Another horse I liked first out – RANDIE’S RASCAL. Turf horse working quite well on dirt, it looked like. Debuted against colts and filly tries them again, this time with blinkers on, FWIW. Top to bottom, think she comes out of a stronger race than likely favorite SHINING MOMENT, though the filly that beat her – SM was the 2-5 favorite – did turn in a strong performance – or so it seemed in a short field where no one else did much running. SM easily run down with no apparent excuse. Suppose she still could be fine.
Fifth Race
1. Exploration
2. Real Fast
3. Tagliatelle
Trainer R Dutrow operating with surgical precision this meet – two starters, two winners – have to do it that way when you spend the $ shipping in from NY to race. EXPLORATION already has a win at the meet – picked up a $35K check racing first time after a $30K claim while not himself eligible to be claimed. Having knocked out that N3L starter condition, he’s now in for a $32K tag in a race with a — $71,000 purse! Think he’s well meant right back? Yes, he is! Will get the setup he needs and make the most of it. Wanted to pull the trigger on REAL FAST as a longshot top pick, but feel a little too positive on the shorter-priced but potentially still fair-priced Exploration. With Real Fast, it’s all projection – most recent start, in April at KEE, marked his first on dirt, and never before this race has he tried one turn. Seeing the way he runs his routes – that might be a good thing. Class drop and potential won’t be properly baked into the price. TAGLIATELLE seems to fit well and ought to get a favorable flow. I’m somewhat skeptical.
Sixth Race
1. Dresden Row
2. Lambeth
3. Theismann
I agree – DRESDEN ROW got a great trip winning at Keeneland! Might be of a slightly different sort, but think he gets another one here. Just cruised to victory last out on the barn change and switch to turf – limited grass starts, plenty of grass upside. Scratched from the Dinner Party on Preakness Day in favor this rich, Lasix-permitted allowance. Decisive win well within himself last time and guess he goes even a little better here. LAMBETH’s one contending turf race came deep-closing into a hot pace in a Kentucky Downs mile – I doubt he hits a level like that here. Taken in this spot, though, because he looms a likely contender if the race rains onto dirt. THEISMANN no match late for Dresden Row last out and will have to deal on the front end with Encino – at least he’s drawn outside his main pace rival. Seems like he’s hit his ceiling, but perhaps another notch still to find? 6yo but only had those four turf routes.
Seventh Race
1. Extra Anejo
2. U Devil You
3. Dreaminblue
EXTRA ANEJO’s last two comeback runs, both about this time of year, both at Kentucky tracks, both at a class level equal to or higher than this, and both at this 7f trip have produced wins. Here comes a third. They have gotten more than enough work into the horse, and he’s getting the fast pace in front of him that he needs to keep from over-racing in the early and middle stages. U DEVIL YOU showed me something last time, going from a hard-fought N2X allowance score at KEE to a more definitive N3X win over the capable Owen Almighty last out at CD. Enough time to recover from that? Does he need more with the four-race foundation? Trip should work out. DREAMINBLUE theoretically looks like the right type for this move from 6f to 7f – consistent solid closing runs, and a handful of two-turn starts. Just not quite sold. Thought he was set to peak in the Count Fleet last out, and if that’s his ceiling, it might prove not quite high enough.
Eighth Race
1. Let ‘er Sizzle
2. Kopiana
3. Raging Current
Raging Current and Olympic Star – the two shortest prices on the morning line: Want either of them at those prices? I don’t. Raging Current I guess is favored – not sure how much action Olympic Star takes. Whole field, top to bottom, even for a $20K maiden-claimer, looks squishy. So, first-timer LET ‘ER SIZZLE holds some interest just by virtue of not having shown her limitations yet. And we have two work videos. Wanted to see a little more from the one on March 14, where she went inside Danzig’s Dora (4th on 4/28 in a $50K “B” claimer – 69 Beyer) after what looked like a more encouraging 5/7 move inside Evanascence, who’d trounce this field. To be fair, not much was asked either breeze – just to keep up, learn the ropes of racing inside a rival, and to pick up gradually as the outside horse put her to more pressure. Did that quite nicely on 5/7, and even on 5/14 she eventually, under urging, forged to the front on the gallop out. Unsure how much KOPIANA actually has to offer – after her first two races, she’d have looked decent with an outside draw class-dropping into this spot – but that last start turned pretty ugly. Did get a “between” trip at a distance perhaps farther than she can handle. Wouldn’t discount RAGING CURRENT at this 7f trip just because she faded in her two recent 6f races – she just tends to fold the tent late regardless of class, distance, and surface. TBF, there was the mildest late progress in her first turf sprint.
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