Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees (-170, 7.5)
The Yankees (30-19) have won the first two games of this four-game series, taking the opener 7-6 as -175 home favorites and then winning again last night 5-4 as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays (21-27) hand the ball to righty Trey Yesavage (1-1, 1.40 ERA) and the Yankees counter with fellow righty Cam Schlittler (6-1, 1.35 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -160 home favorite and Toronto a +140 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Bronx Bombers, pushing New York up from -160 to -170, with some shops inching up to -175.
At Circa, the Yankees are receiving only 42% of moneyline bets but 70% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Yankees here, are 52-27 (66%) with an 8% ROI this season.
New York has additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Bronx Bombers have the more productive bats, posting a .433 slugging percentage and 249 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays posting a .371 slugging percentage and 198 runs scored.
The Yankees are 16-6 at home, the 2nd best home record in MLB. The Blue Jays are 8-16 on the road.
New York is 8-2 in Schlitter’s ten starts this season. He has posted a 0.98 ERA in three May starts, allowing only 2 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched.
8:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-190, 7.5) at San Diego Padres
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Padres (29-19) won the opener 1-0, cashing as +120 home dogs. Then the Dodgers (30-19) bounced back with a 5-4 win last night, taking care of business as -175 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Dodgers send out righty Shohei Ohtani (3-2, 0.82 ERA) and the Padres turn to fellow righty Randy Vasquez (5-1, 2.68 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -165 road favorite and San Diego a +150 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with Los Angeles, driving the Dodgers up from -165 to -190.
At Circa, the Dodgers are taking in 57% of moneyline bets and a whopping 91% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor from the sharps in Vegas.
Favorites priced -190 or higher facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Dodgers here, are 60-23 (72%) with a 6% ROI since 2025, including 11-3 (79%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Los Angeles has additional correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Dodgers have the edge at the plate, hitting .261 with a .342 OBP and 253 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .222 with a .294 OBP and 200 runs scored.
Los Angeles is hitting .262 against righties (3rd) while the Padres are only hitting .223 (28th).
9:38 p.m. ET: Athletics (-125, 9.5) at Los Angeles Angels
This is the third game of a four-game series.
The Angels (17-32) won the opener 2-1, walking off as +110 home dogs. Then the Athletics (24-24) bounced back with a 14-6 win last night, coming through as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Athletics start righty Aaron Civale (5-1, 2.70 ERA) and the Angels go with fellow righty Jack Kochanowicz (2-3, 4.56 ERA).
This line opened with the Athletics listed as a -120 road favorite and Los Angeles a +100 home dog.
Wiseguys have quietly sided with the A’s laying short road chalk, pushing the Athletics up from -120 to -125.
At DraftKings, the A’s are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the A’s are receiving 55% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the road chalk.
The Athletics have the better bats, hitting .252 with a .328 OBP and 215 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .225 with a .313 OBP and 194 runs scored.
Civale has posted a 1.69 ERA in three May starts (all wins), allowing only 3 earned runs in 16 innings pitched. He is 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA on the road.
Meanwhile, Kochanowicz has posted a 7.71 ERA in three May starts (all losses), allowing 14 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched. Los Angeles is 0-6 in his last six starts.
The A’s are 14-12 on the road. The Angels are 9-14 at home, the 3rd worst home record in MLB.
