College Football

College football predictions Week 9 from Wes Reynolds

October 27, 2023

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College football expert betting picks for Week 8

Wes Reynolds is on VSiN Tonight (9 p.m.-12 a.m. ET / 6-9 p.m. PT) and will be posting his weekly college football and NFL best bets for us. He is also one of the hosts of our Long Shots golf betting podcast. He also writes weekly golf previews

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(odds as of October 27, 10:35 a.m. PT)

Purdue at Nebraska (-2.5; 39)

Nebraska has won four of its last five games and playing in a bowl game for the first time since 2016 (Music City Bowl) in Matt Rhule’s first year appears to be a realistic achievement. Meanwhile, Purdue is 2-5 in Ryan Walters’ first year and still has a date at Michigan next week, so the Boilermakers would have to draw into an inside straight and win four of its last five to get bowl-eligible.

So why are the Cornhuskers only laying under a field goal?

Purdue is off a bye week, and Nebraska has a fairly tenuous injury situation at multiple positions. Three OL starters (LT Turner Corcoran, LG Ethan Piper, and RG Nouredin Nouili) all went down with either season-ending injuries or multiple-week injuries last week in a 17-9 victory vs. Northwestern. Furthermore, leading WR Billy Kemp, who is also the team’s punt returner, is out multiple weeks with an MCL sprain. Starting WRs Marcus Washington and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda, along with RBs Gabe Ervin Jr and Rahmir Johnson, are already out for the season.

All but two Nebraska offensive starters on Saturday will be freshmen or sophomores.

The way to beat Purdue is by throwing on them, but Nebraska’s No. 125 passing offense should not have much success doing so, considering "The Kearney Kid" Heinrich Haarberg is only averaging 102.3 passing yards per game on just 51.3% completions.

Expect Purdue to stack the box and dare Haarberg and this young offense to beat them over the top.

The Boilermakers may not have much success running the ball on Nebraska’s No. 4 rush defense but should be able to throw the ball.

Nebraska is 2-8 ATS in its last ten games as a favorite including 1-2 ATS this season.

Bet: Purdue +2.5 (Play to +1)

Georgia (-14.5; 48.5) vs. Florida (Jacksonville, FL)

The rivalry formerly known as the "World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" has been a battle on the gridiron since either 1904 (per Georgia) or 1915 (per Florida). See, it is such a rivalry that the schools cannot even agree on when it began. What is not in dispute is that Georgia has handed it to Florida the last two years, winning by scores of 34-7 and 42-20.

This year could be different as two-time defending national champion Georgia, despite being No. 1 all season, has only covered one game in seven thus far.

Georgia has played an easy schedule, so it is hard to look at this current Bulldogs squad on the same level as the previous two years. They always have talent, but it is substantially younger, especially up front on both sides of the ball. The offense also seems to lack the explosiveness of years past, with a multiple-year QB starter (Stetson Bennett) and its offensive coordinator (Todd Monken) now gone to the NFL. Its next NFL prospect, TE Brock Bowers, is also out for a few weeks with an ankle injury. Bowers has caught four of Carson Beck’s 14 touchdown passes and is the guy who really opens up the offense.

After a couple of disappointing seasons at Wisconsin, QB Graham Mertz has found a home in Gainesville while completing 76.2% of his passes with a solid 12-2 TD-INT ratio.

This is Billy Napier’s second season at Florida, and he still has his fair share of cynics with just an 11-9 overall record, but he could go a long way to quieting them with a good performance here. Napier is 19-6 ATS as an underdog in his six-year head coaching career (four at Louisiana-Lafayette, two at Florida).

Bet: Florida +14.5 (Play to +14)

Tennessee (-3.5; 51.5) at Kentucky

After a low-scoring 20-13 victory in a physical game vs. Texas A&M, the Vols jumped out to a 13-0 lead after the first quarter and a 20-7 halftime lead at Alabama. Then, the Tide got rolling and outscored Tennessee 27-0 in the second stanza for a 34-20 victory (Tennessee 404-358 yardage edge).

Meanwhile, Kentucky is off a needed bye week after being bullied 51-13 at Georgia and having a hangover the following week in a 38-21 home loss to Missouri.

The Wildcats also have double revenge here, losing by three at Kroger Field in 2021 and being drilled 44-6 in Knoxville last year.

Kentucky is well-rested, while the Vols could be beaten up after two consecutive difficult games.

Bet: Kentucky +3.5 (Play to +3)

Ohio State (-14.5; 45.5) at Wisconsin

Ohio State is once again a College Football Playoff contender, but this year, it is the Buckeyes defense carrying the load as they ranked No. 3 nationally in scoring defense (10 ppg) and No. 5 in total defense.

The Buckeyes were thought to be vulnerable last week against Penn State, but instead they held the Nittany Lions to just 240 total yards and 1-for-16 on third downs.

Now the Buckeyes head to Madison to take on Ohio State alum Luke Fickell, who started every game in Columbus during his playing career (1993-1996) and spent 15 years on staff there. The last time Fickell got a crack at his alma mater was in 2019 when his Cincinnati team was shut out 42-0. This time around, while still coaching a less talented team, Fickell has a Wisconsin team that certainly has a narrower gap personnel-wise than his Bearcats did in 2019.

Freshman QB Braedyn Locke made his first start last week at Illinois, replacing the injured Tanner Mordecai. It was a struggle as Locke went just 21-for-41 for 240 yards but led the Badgers back from a 21-7 deficit starting the fourth quarter to a 25-21 victory, throwing two touchdown passes in the final quarter.

While this is a huge step up in class for the Badgers, they may have some momentum here from last week’s comeback. Wisconsin is also 10-0 ATS in its last ten games as a home underdog of six points or more. Camp Randall should be rocking on Saturday night.

Bet: Wisconsin +14.5 (Play to +14)

North Carolina (-12; 64.5) at Georgia Tech

The Tar Heels were unbeaten and rolling towards an ACC Championship Game showdown with Florida State. Then, they lost a home last week as 24-point favorites to a rebuilding Virginia program.

Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has been up and down in Brent Key’s second season. They should have beaten Louisville in the opener but fell apart late. The Yellow Jackets win at Wake Forest, then lose at home to Bowling Green as 21-point favorites. Next, they win outright at Miami as 19-point dogs, then lose at home as 6-point favorites to Boston College. Talk about a "Jekyll and Hyde" team.

The Yellow Jackets led into the fourth quarter, but BC outscored them 21-0 courtesy of two Haynes King interceptions in the final quarter.

Now North Carolina is in the "Bubble Burst" spot, knowing its bid for an undefeated season is done. They face Georgia Tech, who has beaten them each of the last two years as large underdogs: 2021: 45-22 (+14.5), 2022: 21-17 (+21.5).

The underdog is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 Georgia Tech games.

Bet: Georgia Tech +12 (Play to +11)

Cincinnati at Oklahoma State (-7.5; 53)

This looks like the ultimate buy-low/sell-high spot on this weekend’s card.
Oklahoma State has won three games in a row outright as underdogs – vs. Kansas State (29-21; +11.5), vs. Kansas (39-32; +3), at West Virginia (48-34; +3). Now the Cowboys, who were getting double digits at home three weeks ago, are laying over a TD at home to a Cincinnati club that has lost two straight games as home favorites and have lost five consecutive games overall.

The well-traveled QB Alan Bowman and RB Ollie Gordon have sparked the Pokes offense, which has averaged 486 ypg on this three-game winning streak. However, the OK State defense has surrendered 448 ypg.

While Oklahoma State has played better of late, they have also had some luck with a +4 turnover margin over the last three games, and Cincinnati has been -6 in the same category during its five-game losing streak.

Although Cincinnati has lost five in a row, they outgained BYU and Miami (OH) by over 200 yards a piece and outgained Baylor by over 50 yards last week.

The number is inflated here.

Bet: Cincinnati +7.5 (Play to +7)