College Football Post-Christmas Bowl Game Betting Trends:
The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football bowl games after Christmas. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for this week’s CFB games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 64-25 SU and 55-33-1 ATS (62.5%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (+7.5 vs Texas)
* MIAMI (FL) is 2-11 (15.4%) ATS in neutral games since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (FL) (+9.5 at Ohio St)
* GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Sun Belt series with Appalalchian State
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-7 vs Appalachian State)
* ARIZONA STATE is 16-3-1 to the Under (84.2%) in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARIZONA STATE-DUKE (o/u at 49.5)
#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: SAN DIEGO STATE-NORTH TEXAS UNDER 52.5 (projections have total at 48.5)
College Football Revenge Handicapping
The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.
* OLE MISS is 16-21 SU and 13-22 ATS (37.1%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (+6.5 vs Georgia)
Neutral field underdogs are great in revenge
Since the start of the 2016 season, neutral field underdogs playing in revenge mode have gone 54-34 ATS (61.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MICHIGAN (+7.5 vs Texas), OLE MISS (+6.5 vs Georgia), APPALACHIAN STATE (+7 vs Georgia Southern)
College Football Systems Based Upon AP Poll Rankings
The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams are ranked in the AP poll
CFB Ranked Team System #8: Teams coming off an upset win over a Top 15-ranked team are 118-87 SU but just 87-117-1 ATS (42.6%) in the follow-up contest dating back to November 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-7.5 vs Michigan), MIAMI (FL) (+9.5 at Ohio State), ALABAMA (+6.5 at Indiana), INDIANA (-6.5 vs Alabama)
CFB Ranked Team System #9: Teams coming off a loss at home to a top 10-ranked team are just 137-145 SU and 125-155-2 ATS (44.6%) in the next game since October of 2016.
System Match (FADE): MICHIGAN (+7.5 vs Texas)
CFB Ranked Team System #12: Ranked teams coming off of double-digit losses have responded nicely of late, going 64-25 SU and 55-33-1 ATS (62.5%) in the next game since November of 2021.
System Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (+7.5 vs Texas)
CFB Ranked Team System #13: Teams still unranked even after beating a ranked team in the prior game are 83-40 SU but just 52-69-2 ATS (43%) when favored in the follow-up contest since November of 2015.
System Match (FADE): DUKE (-3 vs Arizona State)
CFB Ranked Team System #15: Teams coming off a win over a ranked team and playing another ranked team are just 65-90 SU and 67-85-3 ATS (44.1%) since September 2019. These teams are also 78-34 Under the total (69.6%) in these next contests dating back to September of 2021.
System Matches (FADE ALL): VANDERBILT (-5.5 vs Iowa), TEXAS (-7.5 vs Michigan), MIAMI (FL_ (+9.5 vs Ohio State), OREGON (-2.5 vs Texas Tech), TEXAS TECH (+2.5 vs Oregon), ALABAMA (+6.5 vs Indiana), INDIANA (-6.5 vs Alabama), OLE MISS (+6.5 vs Georgia), GEORGIA (-6.5 vs Ole Miss)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IOWA-VANDERBILT (o/u at 47.5), MICHIGAN-TEXAS (o/u at 48.5), MIAMI (FL)-OHIO STATE (o/u at 42.5), OREGON-TEXAS TECH (o/u at 52.5), ALABAMA-INDIANA (o/u at 48.5), OLE MISS-GEORGIA (o/u at 56.5)
Extreme Stat Next Game CFB Betting Systems
Conference wins while struggling offensively are momentum builders
*Over the last twelve years, college football teams that won a conference game despite gaining less than 250 yards of offense have used that victory to build momentum, going 85-62 ATS (57.8%) in the follow-up contest.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-1.5 vs New Mexico)
Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 1:45 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 24. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.
CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons, and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, CLEMSON, ARMY, FRESNO STATE, LOUISIANA TECH, TENNESSEE, TEXAS, OHIO STATE, GEORGIA, NAVY
CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the 2022 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): RICE-TEXAS ST (o/u at 59.5)
CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IOWA-VANDERBILT (o/u at 47.5), UCONN-ARMY (o/u at 43.5), NEW MEXICO-MINNESOTA (o/u at 43.5)
CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in 2024 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY OVER): LSU-HOUSTON (o/u at 41.5)
College Football Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NCAAF tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI +7 (+7.4)
2. PENN STATE +3 (+4.7)
3. MIAMI (OH) +5.5 (+4.5)
4. APPALACHIAN STATE +7 (+3.2)
5. SAN DIEGO STATE +5.5 (+3.0)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NORTHWESTERN -10.5 (+7.3)
2. USC -6.5 (+6.0)
3(tie). MINNESOTA -1.5 (+4.0)
TEXAS STATE -11.5 (+4.0)
5. TENNESSEE -2.5 (+3.5)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OLE MISS +6.5 (+5.4)
2. ALABAMA +6.5 (+5.0)
3. APPALACHIAN STATE +7 (+4.6)
4. MICHIGAN +7.5 (+4.5)
5. SAN DIEGO STATE +5.5 (+4.1)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LOUISIANA TECH -9.5 (+3.0)
2. UTAH -15.5 (+2.9)
3. UTSA -6 (+2.7)
4. USC -6.5 (+0.7)
5. MINNESOTA -1.5 (+0.5)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WAKE FOREST-MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 53.5 (+4.9)
2. PITTSBURGH-EAST CAROLINA OVER 52.5 (+4.4)
3. OREGON-TEXAS TECH OVER 52.5 (+4.2)
4. VIRGINIA-MISSOURI OVER 44.5 (+4.1)
5. PENN STATE-CLEMSON OVER 48.5 (+3.9)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NORTH TEXAS-SAN DIEGO STATE UNDER 52.5 (-4.0)
2(tie). MICHIGAN-TEXAS UNDER 48.5 (-3.4)
RICE-TEXAS STATE UNDER 59.5 (-3.4)
4. FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL-UTSA UNDER 59.5 (-2.5)
5. LSU-HOUSTON UNDER 41.5 (-2.2)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CINCINNATI +7 (+14.1)
2. COASTAL CAROLINA +9.5 (+10.6)
3. APPALACHIAN STATE +7 (+6.8)
4. SMU +3 (+6.4)
5. MIAMI (OH) +5.5 (+5.2)
Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. USC -6.5 (+8.4)
2(tie). NORTHWESTERN -10.5 (+7.3)
UTSA -6 (+7.3)
4. PITTSBURGH -10 (+5.0)
5. MISSISSIPPI STATE -3 (+4.6)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARIZONA STATE-DUKE OVER 49.5 (+5.3)
2. NEW MEXICO-MINNESOTA OVER 43.5 (+4.1)
3. NEBRASKA-UTAH OVER 50.5 (+3.4)
4(tie). PITTSBURGH-EAST CAROLINA OVER 52.5 (+3.3)
ALABAMA-INDIANA OVER 48.5 (+3.3)
Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. VIRGINIA-MISSOURI UNDER 44.5 (-4.0)
2. MICHIGAN-TEXAS UNDER 48.5 (-3.5)
3(tie). NORTH TEXAS-SAN DIEGO STATE UNDER 52.5 (-2.5)
OLE MISS-GEORGIA UNDER 56.5 (-2.5)
5. NAVY-CINCINNATI UNDER 54.5 (-2.3)
Top College Football Team Situational Trends
These are some of the top situational trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
* ARIZONA is 20-32 (38.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-3 vs SMU)
* ARIZONA STATE is 30-17-1 (63.8%) ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA STATE (+3 vs Duke)
* ARIZONA STATE is 16-3-1 to the Under (84.2%) in non-conference games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ARIZONA STATE-DUKE (o/u at 49.5)
* CINCINNATI is 6-17 ATS (26.1%) as an underdog in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+7 vs Navy)
* CLEMSON is 26-13 (66.7%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEMSON (-3 vs Penn State)
* DUKE is 32-19 (62.7%) ATS in non-conference games since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): DUKE (-3 vs Arizona State)
* MIAMI (OH) is on a 41-28-1 (59.4%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
* FRESNO STATE is 39-24-1 (61.9%) Under the total since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): MIAMI (OH)-FRESNO STATE (o/u at 41.5)
* MIAMI (OH) is 7-0 ATS in the last seven bowl games
* FRESNO STATE is 24-15 (61.5%) ATS coming off a SU win since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of MIAMI OH, 1 PLAY of FRESNO ST
* GEORGIA is 26-17 (60.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
* OLE MISS is 14-23-2 (37.8%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trends Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-6.5 vs Ole Miss)
* LOUISIANA TECH is 41-30-1 (57.7%) Over the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): COASTAL CAROLINA-LOUISIANA TECH (o/u at 51.5)
* LSU is 25-17 (59.5%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): LSU (+2.5 vs Houston)
* MIAMI (FL) is 2-11 (15.4%) ATS in Neutral games since 2014
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (FL_ (+9.5 at Ohio State)
* MICHIGAN is 21-11 (65.6%) ATS in road/neutral games in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MICHIGAN (+7.5 vs Texas)
* MISSOURI is 12-4 ATS (75%) in road/neutral games in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MISSOURI (-4 vs Virginia)
* NAVY is 18-11 ATS (62.1%) following up a SU Win in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-7 vs Cincinnati)
* NEW MEXICO is 23-13 (63.9%) Over the total in the last 2+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NEW MEXICO-MINNESOTA (o/u at 43.5)
* PENN STATE is 36-23 (61%) ATS coming off a SU Win since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (+3 at Clemson)
* PITTSBURGH is 47-27 (63.5%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PITTSBURGH-EAST CAROLINA (o/u at 52.5)
* RICE is 23-9 to the Over (71.9%) in non-conference games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): RICE-TEXAS STATE (o/u at 59.5)
* SAN DIEGO STATE is 53-29 (64.6%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NORTH TEXAS-SAN DIEGO STATE (o/u at 52.5)
* TENNESSEE is 18-6 (75%) ATS in non-conference games since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (-2.5 vs Illinois)
* USC is 34-18 ATS (65.4%) Over the total in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): USC-TCU (o/u at 55.5)
* UTSA is 14-4 to the Over (77.8%) after a SU loss since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): FIU-UTSA (o/u at 59.5)
Top College Football Head-to-Head Series Trends
These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(223) FLORIDA INTL vs (224) TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
*FIU is 4-0 ATS in all meetings with UTSA since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (+6 at UTSA)
(231) GEORGIA TECH vs (232) BYU
*BYU is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the set with GA Tech since 2002
Trend Match (PLAY): BYU (-4 vs GA Tech)
(241) GEORGIA SOUTHERN vs (242) APPALACHIAN STATE
*GEORGIA SOUTHERN is 5-3 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the Sun Belt series with Appalachian State
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA SOUTHERN (-7 vs Appalachian State)
(263) OLE MISS vs (264) GEORGIA
*Favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven of the Ole Miss-UGA SEC rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY): GEORGIA (-6.5 vs Ole Miss)
