The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top college football betting trends and systems for this week’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

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CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been automatic in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 14-0 SU and ATS!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-42.5 vs Temple), OHIO STATE (-48.5 vs Akron)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 34-12 (73.9%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): FAU-Mich State (o/u at 45), UConn-Maryland (o/u at 44.5), Ohio-Syracuse (o/u at 47), Nevada-Troy (o/u at 44.5), Fresno State-Mich (o/u at 46), Wyoming-Arizona State (o/u at 47.5)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since 2013, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick ’ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 22 Overs, 7 Unders (78.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): Boise St-GA Southern (o/u at 56.5), JMU-Charlotte (o/u at 48) 

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 – Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in Game 2 than their opener are on a 34-16 ATS (68%) run. Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 16-23-2 ATS (41%) over the last 11 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+14 vs. UCLA)

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UCONN-MARYLAND, MIAMI (OH)-NORTHWESTERN, NEVADA-TROY

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: AKRON-OHIO STATE UNDER 59 (-10.8)

* GEORGIA STATE is 19-6 ATS in the last 25 Road/Neutral games
System Match: PLAY GEORGIA STATE (+21.5 at GA Tech)

**INTRIGUING STABILITY SCORE PLAYS BELOW**

College Football Stability Score Plays for Week 1

If you read the 2024 College Football Betting Guide or have been a VSiN subscriber, you’re probably already familiar with College Football Stability Scores. Steve Makinen has successfully used this methodology for the last 12 years heading into the start of each season. These scores are a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies for finding value early. Teams in more stable year-to-year situations are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.

Steve keeps a handy chart on the Stability Scores of each FBS team and publishes them weekly for Week 0-3. He has found that a Stability Mismatch score of 8 is the minimum on which he will consider a play for this thought process. Here are this week’s qualifying plays. A separate article on VSiN goes in-depth about these plays and scores.

Friday, August 30, 2024

(177) FLA ATLANTIC (+14) at (178) MICHIGAN ST
Stability Advantage: FLA ATLANTIC by 9

Saturday, August 31, 2024

(151) FLA INTERNATIONAL (+21.5) at (152) INDIANA
Stability Advantage: FLA INTERNATIONAL by 12

(165) GEORGIA ST at (166) GEORGIA TECH (-21.5)
Stability Advantage: GEORGIA TECH by 12

(169) JAMES MADISON at (170) CHARLOTTE (+8)
Stability Advantage: CHARLOTTE by 8

(189) UTEP at (190) NEBRASKA (-27.5)
Stability Advantage: NEBRASKA by 13

(191) MIAMI (OH) (+2.5) at (192) NORTHWESTERN
Stability Advantage: MIAMI OHIO by 9

(195) NORTH TEXAS (+5) at (196) SOUTH ALABAMA
Stability Advantage: NORTH TEXAS by 12

(199) VIRGINIA TECH (-13.5) at (200) VANDERBILT
Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA TECH by 12

(203) UCLA at (204) HAWAII (+14)
Stability Advantage: HAWAII by 9

(207) FRESNO ST (+21) at (208) MICHIGAN
Stability Advantage: FRESNO ST by 17 

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2024 season. Note that these systems only include games matching two FBS opponents against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning.

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when 80% or more of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 82-97 ATS (45.8%). This angle has produced at around 46% consistently since it was first discovered. If you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits handle page 80% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MICHIGAN STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, GEORGIA, UTSA, SYRACUSE, BOISE STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA, ALABAMA, GEORGIA STATE, ARIZONA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 75%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone just 164-188 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%. In 2023, it was 46.7%, maintaining incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits # of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MICHIGAN STATE, GEORGIA, MIAMI (FL), NORTHWESTERN, BOISE STATE, SOUTH CAROLINA, HOUSTON, ALABAMA, MICHIGAN, LSU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group is just 164-190 ATS (46.3%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in 2023, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NORTH CAROLINA, PENN STATE, VIRGINIA TECH, MIAMI (FL), BOISE STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the 2022 season, this majority group has gone 142-132 ATS (51.8%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates and shows that being on the “smart” side of the majority handle can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): UCONN, AKRON, COLORADO STATE, NEVADA, SAM HOUSTON STATE, NOTRE DAME, GEORGIA STATE, BOSTON COLLEGE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone 126-111 ATS (53.2%). This is even better than the handle numbers in #4 actually. Though it was down a bit for 2023, it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): EASTERN MICHIGAN, BOSTON COLLEGE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)! This shows that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): Thursday: NORTH CAROLINA, JACKSONVILLE STATE
Friday: OKLAHOMA, MICHIGAN STATE, WISCONSIN, TCU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority of the handle backed the team with more season wins in an FBS vs. FBS contest for an ATS wager over the past two seasons, this majority group has gone just 313-354 ATS (46.9%). More than not, bettors like to back the “better team” in a matchup, regardless of what the point spread indicates. Again, the point spread is always the eternal equalizer.
System Matches (FADE): HAWAII

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 54. In games since the start of the 2022 season, where the totals reached 57 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 51-38 (57.3%). This is rare, as it occurred in only 89 of 1567 games.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WISCONSIN-WMU, TCU-STANFORD, NORTH TEXAS-SOUTH ALABAMA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 70%+ supermajority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 25-13 (63.2%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UCONN-MARYLAND, MIAMI (OH)-NORTHWESTERN, NEVADA-TROY

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2022 season, on games with totals of 45 or lower, 75%+ supermajority number of bets bettors bucking the low total and siding with the Over have gone 52-34 (60.5%). This system improved its win percentage in 2023. Again, not a ton of plays here in the grand scheme, but the more public option of number of bets has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER): UCONN-MARYLAND

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #1: Huge favorites (-37.5 points or more) have been automatic in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013, going 14-0 SU and ATS!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA (-42.5 vs Temple), OHIO ST (-48.5 vs Akron)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #2: Home-field advantage means a lot in early season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 27-13 SU and 24-13-3 ATS (64.9%) over the last decade.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+2 vs. UNC), STANFORD (+9 vs. TCU), WEST VIRGINIA (+8 vs. PSU), VANDERBILT (+13.5 vs. VT), FLORIDA (+2.5 vs. Miami (FL))

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #3: Small favorites win the early NEUTRAL field showdowns between non-conference Power 4 foes, as those laying less than a touchdown are on a 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS (72.2%) run since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY): LSU (-4 vs. USC)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #4: There is a massive swing in expectation to win and/or cover when Group of 5 teams square off with Power 5 teams in Weeks 0/1 over the last decade. As hosts, the Group of 5 teams have gone 30-19 ATS (61.2%). On the road or in neutral games, these Group of 5 teams are 82-113 ATS (42.1%) in that same time span. Bet accordingly.
System Matches (PLAY): HOME TEAMS HAWAII vs. UCLA
System Matches (FADE ALL): Road teams: Temple at OKLAHOMA, Western Michigan at WISCONSIN, Florida Atlantic at MICHIGAN STATE, Kent State at PITTSBURGH, Florida International at INDIANA, Ohio at SYRACUSE, Akron at OHIO STATE, Colorado State at TEXAS, UTEP at NEBRASKA, Miami (OH) at NORTHWESTERN, Old Dominion at SOUTH CAROLINA, UNLV at HOUSTON, Western Kentucky at ALABAMA, Fresno State at MICHIGAN, Southern Miss at KENTUCKY, Georgia State at GEORGIA TECH, New Mexico at ARIZONA, Wyoming at ARIZONA STATE

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #5: Favorites have been far more reliable at home and in neutral games in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013 (186-155 ATS 54.5%), than on the road (42-61 ATS 40.8%).
System Matches: PLAY FAVORITES at HOME/NEUTRAL, FADE FAVORITES on the ROAD 

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #6: Oddsmakers are leading you to water on low-totaled games in Weeks 0/1, especially with bigger favorites, as in games with totals of 48 or less and a favorite of 4 points or more, Under the total is 34-12 (73.9%) since 2013.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): FAU-Michigan State (o/u at 45), UConn-Maryland (o/u at 44.5), Ohio-Syracuse (o/u at 47), Nevada-Troy (o/u at 44.5), Fresno State-Michigan (o/u at 46), Wyoming-Arizona State (o/u at 47.5)
*possibly UGA-Clem (o/u at 48.5 currently)

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #7: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents involving home underdogs in Weeks 0/1 have been explosive, particularly when not expected to be. In fact, since 2013, when totals on these games involving home dogs (or pick ’ems) are 64 or less, the result has been 22 Overs, 7 Unders (78.6%).
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): Boise St-GA Southern (o/u at 56.5), JMU-Charlotte (o/u at 48) 

CFB Week 0/1 Betting Concept #8: Non-conference games between Group of 5 opponents featuring a home favorite have been unexpectedly lower scoring, producing 38 Unders, 22 Overs (63.3%) since 2013.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CCU-Jax State (o/u at 54), Kennesaw State-UTSA (o/u at 49.5), North Texas-South Alabama (o/u at 64.5), Nevada-Troy (o/u ta 44.5), Sam Houston State-Rice (o/u at 49.5)

College Football Game 2 Reactionary Systems

These college football betting trend systems take into account traits about a team’s season opener and how they affect their second game.

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #1- FCS letdown: Teams that faced an FBS foe in Game 1 and are favored by 30-points or more versus an FCS opponent for Game 2 have gone just 73-93-5 ATS (44%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): SMU (-43.5 vs. Houston Baptist)

CFB Game 2 Reactionary System #5 – Oddsmakers don’t have a true grasp on some teams early: Teams whose lines swing grossly huge amounts from Game 1 to Game 2 have performed predictably, with 52 points being the benchmark. Those teams whose lines are 52 points or more worse in Game 2 than their opener are on a 34-16 ATS (68%) run. Teams whose lines are >=52 points better than the opener have gone just 16-23-2 ATS (41%) over the last 11 seasons.
System Match (PLAY): HAWAII (+14 vs. UCLA)

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following college football betting trends are based on methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best & Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since ’16)

Worst

* MASSACHUSETTS is 3-21 SU and 10-14 ATS (41.7%) in revenge mode since 2016
System Match: FADE UMASS (-2.5 vs Eastern Michigan)

College Football Systems Based on AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting trend systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll

CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 170-83 SU and 145-100-8 ATS (59.2%).
System Match: PLAY TEXAS A&M (-3 vs. ND)

Extreme Stat Next Game College Football Betting Trend Systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
CFB teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up contest since 2012, going 88-60 ATS (59.5%).
System Match: PLAY HAWAII (+14 vs. UCLA)

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following college football betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN WEEKLY RATINGS page under the CFB tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +14 (+4.5)
2. NEW MEXICO +31.5 (+4.0)
3(tie). EASTERN MICHIGAN +2.5 (+3.5) and
SOUTHERN MISS +28 (+3.5)
5. NOTRE DAME +3 (+2.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TROY -8.5 (+6.4)
2. TEXAS -32.5 (+4.6)
3. FLORIDA STATE -15.5 (+3.7)
4. RICE -10 (+3.1)
5. HOUSTON -2.5 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +14 (+7.0)
2. NEVADA +8.5 (+6.3)
3. GEORGIA SOUTHERN +13 (+4.5)
4. SAM HOUSTON STATE +10 (+3.9)
5. SOUTHERN MISS +28 (+3.5)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. OKLAHOMA -42.5 (+9.7)
2. TEXAS -32.5 (+5.1)
3. FLORIDA STATE -15.5 (+4.8)
4. PENN STATE -7.5 (+4.7)
5. JAMES MADISON -8 (+3.9)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. VT-VANDY OVER 48 (+6.1)
2(tie) KENT ST-PITT OVER 55.5 (+5.1) and
MIAMI (OH)-NORTHWESTERN OVER 40 (+5.1)
4. UCONN-MARYLAND OVER 44.5 (+2.9)
5. NOTRE DAME-TEXAS A&M OVER 46.5 (+2.7)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LSU-USC UNDER 64 (-6.2)
2. AKRON-OHIO STATE UNDER 59 (-5.7)
3. TEMPLE-OKLAHOMA UNDER 59 (-5.3)
4. NORTH TEXAS-SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 64.5 (-4.3)
5. CLEMSON-GEORGIA UNDER 48.5 (-3.0)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW MEXICO +31.5 (+8.6)
2. GEORGIA STATE +21.5 (+5.7)
3. SOUTHERN MISS +28 (+4.3)
4. OHIO +17.5 (+3.4)
5. GEORGIA SOUTHERN +13 (+3.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TROY -8.5 (+6.4)
2. RICE -10 (+2.7)
3. TEXAS -32.5 (+2.4)
4. NEBRASKA -27.5 (+2.2)
5. MARYLAND -20 (+2.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. VIRGINIA TECH-VANDERBILT OVER 48 (+9.8)
2. UCONN-MARYLAND OVER 44.5 (+4.1)
3. KENT STATE-PITTSBURGH OVER 55.5 (+4.0)
4(tie). UTEP-NEBRASKA OVER 49 (+3.7) and
NOTRE DAME-TEXAS A&M OVER 46.5 (+3.7)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. AKRON-OHIO STATE UNDER 59 (-10.8)
2. TEMPLE-OKLAHOMA UNDER 59 (-8.5)
3. TCU-STANFORD UNDER 60.5 (-4.9)
4. NORTH TEXAS-SOUTH ALABAMA UNDER 64.5 (-4.8)
5. LSU-USC UNDER 64 (-3.7)

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

* AIR FORCE is 28-16 (63.6%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
System Match: PLAY AIR FORCE (-30.5 vs Merrimack) 

* ALABAMA is on a 20-7 ATS surge at home
System Match: PLAY ALABAMA (-31.5 vs WKU)

* ARIZONA STATE is 2-8 ATS in the last three seasons in Non-Conference games
System Match: FADE ARIZONA STATE (-6.5 vs. Wyoming)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 20-11 (64.5%) ATS in Conference games since 2020
System Match: PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE (+15.5 at Florida St)

* BOWLING GREEN is 4-12 (25%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2019
System Match: FADE BOWLING GREEN (-17.5 vs. Fordham) 

* BUFFALO is 18-9 (66.7%) ATS at home since 2019
System Match: PLAY BUFFALO (-3.5 vs Lafayette)

* CHARLOTTE is 2-10 ATS at home since 2022
System Match: FADE CHARLOTTE (+8 vs JMU)

* CLEMSON is 19-8 (70.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
System Match: PLAY CLEMSON (+13.5 vs. UGA)

* DUKE is 30-12 (71.4%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2014
System Match: PLAY DUKE (-23.5 vs. Elon) 

* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 36-15 (70.6%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
System Match: PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN (+2.5 at UMass)

* FLORIDA is 5-15 ATS in Non-Conference games in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE FLORIDA (+2.5 vs. Miami (FL))

* FLORIDA STATE is 8-17 (32%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE FLORIDA STATE (-15.5 vs. BC) 

* FRESNO STATE is 25-14 (64.1%) Under the total since 2021
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Fresno State-Michigan (o/u at 46)

* GEORGIA is 20-9 (69%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2020
System Match: PLAY GEORGIA (-13.5 vs. Clemson)

* GEORGIA STATE is 19-6 ATS in the last 25 road/neutral games
System Match: PLAY GEORGIA ST (+21.5 at GA Tech) 

* GEORGIA TECH is 5-18 ATS as a favorite since 2018
System Match: FADE GEORGIA TECH (-21.5 vs. Georgia State)

* IOWA is 42-20 Under the total in the last 62 games
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Illinois State-Iowa (o/u at 41)

* JAMES MADISON is 19-7 (73.1%) ATS as favorite since 2020
System Match: PLAY JAMES MADISON (-8 at Charlotte)

* KANSAS is 3-11 (21.4%) ATS as favorite since 2018

* KANSAS is 32-15 Over the total since 2019
System Match: FADE KANSAS (-45.5 vs. Lindenwood), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 58.5)

* KANSAS STATE is 40-21-2 ATS since 2019
System Match: PLAY KANSAS STATE (-36 vs. UT-Martin) 

* KENT ST is 6-16 ATS in the last 22 games as an underdog
System Match: FADE KENT STATE (+24 at Pitt)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 31-15-1 Over the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY OVER in Nicholls-LA Tech (o/u at 56.5)

* LOUISVILLE is 3-10 (23.1%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
System Match: FADE LOUISVILLE (-36.5 vs. Austin Peay)

* LSU is 21-10 (67.7%) ATS in Road/Neutral games since 2019

* LSU is 20-7 Over the total since 2022
System Match: PLAY LSU (-4 vs. USC), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 64)

* MARYLAND is 15-6 (70%) ATS in the last 21 Non-Conference games
System Match: PLAY MARYLAND (-20 vs. UConn) 

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 28-15 Under the total run over the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY UNDER in Miami (OH)-Northwestern (o/u at 39.5)

* MICHIGAN is 29-13-1 ATS in the last three seasons (including 16-5 ATS in road/neutral games)
System Match: PLAY MICHIGAN (-21 vs. Fresno St) 

* MISSISSIPPI ST is 24-13 (64.9%) Under the total since 2021

* MISSISSIPPI ST is 13-8 (61.9%) ATS at home since 2021
System Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (-25.5 vs. EKU), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 60)

 * NEBRASKA is 2-12 (14.3%) ATS at home in the last 14
System Match: FADE NEBRASKA (-27.5 vs. UTEP) 

* NEW MEXICO STATE is 26-14 ATS in the last three seasons (including 11-3 ATS as a favorite)
System Match: PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE (-8.5 vs. SEMO)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 4-16-1 ATS in the last 21 home games
System Match: FADE NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-35 vs. WIU) 

* OREGON STATE is 25-5 ATS in Home games over the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY OREGON STATE (-28.5 vs. Idaho State) 

* PITTSBURGH is 33-16 Over the total since 2020
System Match: PLAY OVER in Kent St-Pitt (o/u at 55.5)

* RUTGERS has gone 11-3 ATS in the last 14 non-conference games
System Match: PLAY RUTGERS (-36.5 vs. Howard)

* SAM HOUSTON STATE is 14-3 (82.4%) ATS as Underdog since 2017
System Match: PLAY SAM HOUSTON STATE (+10 at Rice)

* SAN DIEGO ST is 40-18 (69%) Under the total since 2019
System Match: PLAY UNDER in TACC-SDSU (o/u at 57.5) 

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 11-4 ATS as a favorite in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA (-21 vs. ODU)

* STANFORD is 4-15 ATS in the last 19 home games
System Match: FADE STANFORD (+9 vs. TCU)

* TEMPLE is 4-12 ATS in road games over the last three seasons
System Match: FADE TEMPLE (+42.5 at OU) 

* TENNESSEE is 11-1 ATS in Non-Conference games since 2021
System Match: PLAY TENNESSEE (-38.5 vs. Chattanooga)

* TEXAS A&M is 17-5 (77.3%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2018
System Match: PLAY TEXAS A&M (-3 vs. ND) 

* TULANE is 40-21 (65.6%) ATS as favorite since 2014
System Match: PLAY TULANE (-27.5 vs. SELA)

 * TX-SAN ANTONIO is 4-13 (23.5%) ATS at home since 2021
System Match: FADE UTSA (-25 vs. Kennesaw State) 

* UAB is 18-5 (78.3%) ATS at home since 2020
System Match: PLAY UAB (-24.5 vs. Alcorn State)

* UCLA is 8-17 (32%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2015
System Match: FADE UCLA (-14 at Hawaii) 

* UNLV is 19-5 (79.2%) ATS in Non-Conference games since 2017
System Match: PLAY UNLV (+2.5 at Houston) 

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 16-6 ATS at Home in the last four seasons
System Match: PLAY WEST VIRGINIA (+8 vs. PSU)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 1

Saturday, August 31, 2024

(185) MIAMI (FL) at (186) FLORIDA
* MIAMI is on a 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS run vs. Florida

Both Miami (FL) and Florida head into crucial seasons regarding the program directions. The Hurricanes are one of the popular picks by experts to crash the expanded CFP party in 2024. They return a ton of experience for head coach Mario Cristobal’s third season. Miami (FL) brings in transfer QB Cameron Ward to run the show offensively. 

The first test is a big one vs. Florida, a team that seems to have potentially turned a corner after three straight sub-.500 seasons, bringing in its best recruiting/transfer class in over a decade. Miami is favored but hasn’t been in Gainesville since a 26-3 loss in 2008.
System Match: PLAY MIAMI FL (-2.5 at UF)

Others of note…

(161) E MICHIGAN at (162) MASSACHUSETTS
*MASSACHUSETTS has covered the last five ATS in the head-to-head series
System Match: PLAY MASSACHUSETTS (-2.5 vs EMU)

(179) AKRON at (180) OHIO STATE
*Under the total is 4-0 in the head-to-head series since 2001
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 58)

For more College Football Week 1 predictions, visit the College Football Week 1 Hub at VSiN.com.

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