College Football Week 1 Stability Score Plays:
Hopefully, you’re familiar with the methodology I’ve used for the last 13 years or so regarding college football Stability Scores heading into the start of each season. I know Bill Adee has been effusive in sharing its details in the VSiN Newsletter for the last few years around this time. If you’re not, these scores provide a quantitative way to determine each team’s level of stability as compared to how they left us in the prior season. It is one of the foremost strategies I employ every year to find early value. The thought behind it is that teams that are in more stable situations year to year are better bets early, while those that have undergone a lot of change in the offseason should be faded.
Rather than getting too deep into the methodology, I suggest you read this explainer from earlier in August. Instead, I will just get right into sharing this week’s qualifying games.
Hopefully you caught the Week 0 article I put out sharing the game that qualified this past Saturday, as Kansas easily took care of business versus Fresno State to get the Stability Score System off to a 1-0 ATS start for 2025. Interestingly, one of this week’s 11 plays finds us again looking to fade the Bulldogs.
Here are the 11 games qualifying for the system this week, with games running between Friday and Monday. There will be two more weeks to take advantage of the system after this.
VIEW COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY SCORE CHART HERE
Friday, August 29, 2025
(157) CENTRAL MICHIGAN at (158) SAN JOSE STATE (-11.5)
Stability Advantage: SAN JOSE STATE by 10
Steve’s thoughts: Head coach Ken Niumatalolo’s first season was moderately successful in 2024, as he guided San Jose State to its third straight 7-6 season. It’s somewhat commendable when a program can undergo a major transition in coaches and systems and not drop off. Year 2 for the longtime coach of the Naval Academy looks to be one in which the Spartans take a step forward, as most experts have them behind only Boise State in the Mountain West Conference. The first test comes against a Central Michigan squad that struggled to a 4-8 finish last season and has tasked new head coach Matt Drinkall, who last coached Army’s offensive line, to turn it around.
(171) WESTERN MICHIGAN at (172) MICHIGAN STATE (-20.5)
Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN STATE by 10
Steve’s thoughts: Michigan State enters 2025 on a three-year bowl game drought, having gone 14-22 during that span. Last year was a rebuilding season under new head coach Jonathan Smith. His second team at MSU should be much more competitive, with 15 starters back, including QB Aidan Chiles. Smith will be looking for some more explosive offense in 2025, as his team scored just 19.8 PPG last season. Points shouldn’t be that hard to come by this week as the Spartans host an in-state foe in Western Michigan. The Broncos allowed 31.3 PPG last year and return just three starters on that side of the ball.
Saturday, August 30, 2025
(177) NEW MEXICO at (178) MICHIGAN (-36.5)
Stability Advantage: MICHIGAN by 14
Steve’s thoughts: Last year at this time, Michigan was the defending national champion, yet perhaps the most unstable program in the country, as head coach Sherrone Moore was left to pick up the pieces after Jim Harbaugh departed for the NFL. The program was a winner but mired in controversy and scandal. The rocky 8-5 season culminated with uplifting wins over Ohio State and Alabama. Now, it seems, the Wolverines have a ton going for them in 2025 with 14 starters back and most of their coaching staff in place. The same cannot be said for New Mexico, which was left in shock by coach Bronco Mendenhall’s unexpected departure to conference rival Utah State. The program falls to Jason Eck, former head coach at Idaho, and he has just seven starters back from last year’s five-win team. This line is big for a reason.
(183) FLORIDA ATLANTIC at (184) MARYLAND (-14.5)
Stability Advantage: MARYLAND by 9
Steve’s thoughts: The Stability Score mismatches for Week 1 have a Big Ten flair to them so far, and Maryland becomes the third qualifier in four games. The Terps weren’t stable nor good in 2025 as they won just four games and missed out on a bowl game for the first time since 2020. The program stayed the course, however, and retained head coach Mike Locksley, who has 10 starters back. The first test comes against a transitioning Florida Atlantic team that turns to coach Zach Kittley, former offensive coordinator at Texas Tech, who gets his first chance at a FBS head coaching job this season. He has just six starters back but brings in QB Caden Veltkamp from Western Kentucky. This situation looks very unstable now, but Veltkamp gives reason for legit optimism down the road.
(185) COASTAL CAROLINA at (186) VIRGINIA (-12.5)
Stability Advantage: VIRGINIA by 8
Steve’s thoughts: Virginia needed just one upset win in its final three games this past November to end a three-year bowl game drought, but instead the Cavaliers were beaten by at least 20 all three times. Coach Tony Elliott’s team looks to take that elusive step forward with 14 starters back and a new QB in Chandler Morris, a former TCU and North Texas star. The early schedule looks favorable for UVA to gain some momentum, starting with this game versus Coastal Carolina. Third-year head coach Tim Beck brings on new coordinators on both sides of the ball as well as a new quarterback, expected to be MJ Morris, a Maryland transfer.
(189) MARSHALL at (190) GEORGIA (-39.5)
Stability Advantage: GEORGIA by 12
Steve’s thoughts: I have written on several occasions this offseason regarding the plight of the Marshall program since its Sun Belt title game win in December. The program couldn’t come to terms with former head coach Charles Huff, and the program essentially unraveled when he chose to move on. He took most of his key players with him. Tony Gibson, former defensive coordinator at NC State, is left to pick up the pieces. The Herd were 10-3 last season, but with just four starters back, the current team is a shell of its ’24 self. The opening game couldn’t get much tougher either, as a trip between the hedges awaits. Georgia is among the favorites — if not the favorite — to win the SEC. The Bulldogs are also a rightful massive favorite for in this game.
(193) UTEP (+6) at (194) UTAH STATE
Stability Advantage: UTEP by 11
Steve’s thoughts: UTEP was just 3-9 last season in coach Scotty Walden’s first year atop the program, but there is some reason for optimism this fall as Walden landed former five-star QB Malachi Nelson, who began his career at USC. He also has returning starter Skyler Locklear back, so the Miners will be better at the most important position. UTEP also won two of its final three games last season, so it has some momentum. Utah State, meanwhile, starts anew under coach Bronco Mendenhall, who led a mini-revival at New Mexico last season. The Aggies have just two offensive starters back from their 4-8 team of ’24, which scored 31.9 PPG. Defense is their issue, though, having yielded 37.8 PPG in ’24.
(199) GEORGIA SOUTHERN (+0.5) at (200) FRESNO STATE
Stability Advantage: GEORGIA SOUTHERN by 16
Steve’s thoughts: For a second straight week, we have the opportunity to fade rebuilding Fresno State, which is transitioning in the first season under coach Matt Entz. In the offseason, I questioned the team’s adding of QB EJ Werner, who had only moderate success at Temple, a team that has been far below FSU’s level in recent years. In fact, this program used to have prolific passers under Jeff Tedford. There wasn’t much prolific about the seven-point, 216-yard effort at Kansas last week. Georgia Southern, on the other hand, has been an offensive juggernaut under head coach Clay Helton, and he has 13 starters back from his 8-5 team from last season.
(205) MISSISSIPPI STATE (-11.5) at (206) SOUTHERN MISS
Stability Advantage: MISSISSIPPI STATE by 15
Steve’s thoughts: This is an important season for Mississippi State football and second-year head coach Jeff Lebby. This program essentially hit rock bottom last year in SEC terms, failing to even win a single game in conference while finishing 2-10. Lebby has 16 starters back, though, including veteran QB Blake Shapen, who helped the Bulldogs to 25.8 PPG last year, an improvement of 4.0 PPG. With an extremely rigorous SEC slate starting on Sept. 27, it is essential that this program get off to a good start, and who better to kick it off against than an in-state foe that is in what looks to be a total rebuilding year? The Golden Eagles have some reason for optimism with head coach Charles Huff, along with several of his key players from ’24 Marshall coming in, but USM is about as unstable as it gets early in the season.
(215) RICE at (216) LOUISIANA (-13.5)
Stability Advantage: LOUISIANA by 10
Steve’s thoughts: Rice has gone the way of the triple option in 2025, turning to head coach Scott Abell, who gets his first FBS chance after guiding Davidson the last seven years. In a time when even longtime option teams like Navy are leaving the system, Rice has turned back the clock. Besides having new and unrecognizable systems in place on both sides of the ball, the Owls bring back only seven starters from last year’s 4-8 team. Louisiana, meanwhile, has the same amount of starters back but is coming off a 10-4 season and is just retooling, not rebuilding. The new QB is expected to be Walker Howard, a former highly rated Ole Miss transfer.
Monday, September 1, 2025
(233) TCU (-3.5) at (234) NORTH CAROLINA
Stability Advantage: TCU by 15
Steve’s thoughts: There is not a single program across the country that will have more eyes on it this season than North Carolina, as football fans everywhere are curious as to what will transpire under legendary former NFL coach Bill Belichick in Chapel Hill. They’ll get a first look at the Tar Heels in an intriguing Labor Day night national TV game versus TCU. UNC is expected to be new almost everywhere, new at about half of the starting positions, new schemes, new coaches and even a new playing surface on their field, as Belichick opted to return to a grass surface to aid what figures to be a power rushing attack. The Horned Frogs come back loaded with 13 starters returning from their 9-4 team of a season ago, including 3,900+ yard passer Josh Hoover.
