The last two weeks of the regular season are already here. As the season comes to an end, so too is the volatility of the opening numbers on Sunday.

As we have discussed in this column before, the closer you get to the conclusion of the regular season, the tighter these numbers become. Only a handful of games moved more than 2.5 points on the side, and just about five totals  moved three or more points in one direction.

 

***Top College Football Betting Resources***

*Join thousands of other sports bettors and unlock access to picks, public betting splits data, & the VSiN live video broadcast by upgrading to VSiN Pro. Grab your first month for less than $10.*

Still, there are a few contests which saw some notable line moves when the markets opened yesterday, so let’s take a look at those which caught our attention.

College Football Week 13 Odds Report

Central Florida Knights (PK, 62.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia did not put up much of a fight on defense against Baylor on Saturday. The Mountaineers allowed 7.2 yards per play and 49 points in a somewhat competitive loss to the Bears. It was the fourth straight West Virginia game to go over the total, but more importantly, it was the third loss and failed cover in five games. Perhaps that is why bettors on Sunday pounced on UCF in this spot. This line opened PK at Circa Sports, but was UCF -3 within minutes. The Knights are coming off a bye week, but prior to that they lost outright as a 2.5-point favorite to Arizona State. In fact, UCF is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. The market has had a respect for the Knights that has not translated to positive results, and that respect is showing once more.

Iowa Hawkeyes (-7, 42.5) at Maryland Terrapins

Maryland saw some tepid support on Sunday when lines opened for Week 13. Circa Sports opened this contest at -7 but moved off the key number eventually. The real move came on the total throughout the day. The number opened at 42.5 but by the time the afternoon games in the NFL were in the second half this number was 47 at Circa Sports. These are two of the best over teams in the Big 10. Iowa is 8-2 to the over this season, and its games have gone over by an average of 7.8 points per game. Maryland games are 7-3 to the over with a +5.3 margin. Iowa is a great defense, but the Terrapins can move the ball. This is a top 50 offense by EPA standards. In the latest loss to Rutgers, they outgained the Scarlet Knights 82 yards and averaged 4.9 yards per carry. The opening number of 42.5 is a low bar to clear, and it isn’t surprising that we saw bettors hammer it out of the gate.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (PK, 44.5)

It seems the betting market has something against Illinois. Last week, the Illini opened -2 against Michigan State and the initial move brought it to -4 at Circa Sports. Eventually, the number got to as low as -1 before it closed where it originally opened. We’re seeing the market move against Illinois again this week. This game opened PK before Rutgers took some money. The Scarlet Knights are now consensus 1.5-point favorites. Again, not the strongest move but worth noting. The total jumped 3.5 points on Sunday by the time we got to the afternoon. It is a noticeable move for a game involving Illinois. The Illini are 3-7 to the under this season. All three of those games that have gone over have come in conference, and Illinois has done its part averaging 39.6 points per contest.

Florida International Panthers (-9, 46.5) at Kennesaw State Owls

Despite the drama of losing its head coach at the beginning of the week, Kennesaw State put up a fight on Saturday against Sam Houston. The Owls eventually lost in overtime, but they covered for the third time in four games. It was also the seventh time this season a game went under for Kennesaw State, which is likely why we saw this total drop three points from the opening number. The Owls are one of the worst offenses in college football, and they play at an agonizing pace. They rank 119th in offensive plays per game (63.4) and at home they run the third-fewest (58.3). FIU is 122nd in plays per game as well, meaning this thing should be played at a glacial pace. The Panthers are 6-4 to the over on the season, but they are 120th in EPA per play. It makes sense that those who shape the market knocked this total down.

Georgia State Panthers at Texas State Bobcats (-17, 57.5)

The title of worst cover team in the country now officially belongs to Georgia State. The Panthers lost outright to the Red Wolves of Arkansas State on Saturday as field goal favorites. It was the seventh straight game which Georgia State has failed to cover. The Panthers are now 1-7-2 ATS on the season with a -6.1 cover margin. It is no wonder that those who shape the market laid the number with Texas State when this line opened on Sunday. The Bobcats are still alive mathematically to win the Sun Belt West, so there is plenty of motivation for them to keep rolling and both win and cover their third straight contest.

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR