College football Week 3 best bets from the T Shoe Index

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Week 3 college football best bets

Week 2 best bets were a profitable 2-1 in what easily couldโ€™ve been a 3-0 week had UAB sneaked in the back door against Georgia Southern; but, in this business youโ€™ve got to take the bad with the good, and profit is always good so no complaints here. While this week doesnโ€™t have a ton of glamorous matchups, the beautiful thing about betting is thereโ€™s always something to like, regardless, so letโ€™s get to what my T Shoe Index has for us this week.

 

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Tulane (-12) at Southern Mississippi, O/U 49.5

My condolences for anyone who bet Tulane +7.5 last week; star QB Michael Pratt ended up sitting out with an injury, but backup QB Kai Horton stepped in and did an admirable job, giving the Green Wave a lead throughout most of the game before some late-game shenanigans led to an Ole Miss cover. 

The bright side is that I think the somewhat lopsided final score has created another betting opportunity to back the Wave here at Southern Miss. TSI is still projecting a nearly 23-point win on the road, and even if you wanted to subtract a touchdown in the anticipated absence of Pratt, that still gives us plenty of value on the number to lay the points. Tulane still boasts the No. 3 offense and the No. 5 defense in the Group of Five, per TSI, while Southern Miss is No. 50 and No. 55, respectively. This is a total mismatch on both sides of the ball, so I will gladly lay less than two touchdowns with the underrated Green Wave.

Pick: Tulane -12 (Play to -13.5)

Liberty (-3.5) at Buffalo, O/U 55

I was on alert coming into the season that my numbers mightโ€™ve been high on Liberty; however, their 2-0 ATS record has somewhat vindicated me thus far and the numbers are pointing back to old faithful again this week. To me, this is absolutely a case where 1. Oddsmakers did not account for Buffaloโ€™s performance in a loss to FCS Fordham last week and 2. Premature backing of the underdog with anticipation of weather impacts from the hurricane in the northeast; however, Iโ€™ve checked the updated forecast and weather should not be a factor in this game. 

Luckily for us, the T Shoe Index does account for FCS performances (every data point is important!) and Buffalo had a game grade of -19 last week โ€“ meaning, their performance was 19 points worse than what the average FBS team would be expected to do against the opponent; meanwhile, Liberty was en route to a 10.5 game grade (10.5 points better than FBS average). TSI projects Liberty -9.5 in this game, so Iโ€™m going to lay the points with yet another road favorite this week.

Pick: Liberty -3.5 (play to -5.5)

West Virginia (pk) vs Pittsburgh, O/U 50

I havenโ€™t played many totals so far this year while Iโ€™ve allowed TSI to get acclimated to the potential impacts of the new clock rules, but I feel confident now heading into week 3 and have identified a total I canโ€™t pass on as Pitt heads to Morgantown in the Backyard Brawl. While admittedly, neither offense is other-worldly by any stretch, these defenses are bad enough that there should be plenty of points in a game that TSI projects to be in the high 50s (58). WVU is No. 67 and Pittsburgh is No. 49 out of 69 power five teams on defense. Thatโ€™s brutally bad. An important factor here is weโ€™re getting this total under a key number of 51, which makes this an even more enticing bet. 

Pick: Over 50 points (Play to 51)

You can always find my ratings and projections on every college football game to use as a betting resource every week, while getting my best bets right here at VSiN.com. Be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex to get my real-time tips on when lines are moving and any other relevant betting nuggets I find.