College Football Week 3: Arizona State vs. Texas State

We didn’t get a college football Thursday night game in Week 2, but we have a fascinating game in Week 3 to make up for it. Arizona State has been one of the early surprises of the season, but they’ll get a big test on the road in San Marcos against Texas State. The rapidly-rising Bobcats under GJ Kinne have a rare chance in the national spotlight with a standalone ESPN game to begin the new week.

This should be a good one with a competitive line and two highly-motivated teams.

 

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For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 3 Hub.

Arizona State Sun Devils (-1.5, 59.5) at Texas State Bobcats

Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Texas State joined FBS in 2012 and just made their first bowl game appearance last season. In fact, it was their first winning season and first season with more than four wins. Kinne is very likely to level up to a bigger job after this season, so every win is a feather in his cap and one for the program as well.

Arizona State has fallen on some pretty hard times. Second-year head coach Kenny Dillingham led a 3-9 season last year, which means that the Sun Devils have back-to-back three-win campaigns. Recruiting violations under former head coach Herm Edwards took away some wins from the program ledger and the 10-win Todd Graham seasons in 2013 and 2014 feel like an eternity ago.

So, that sets the stage for the broader picture in this game, but this specific matchup is a very intriguing one. Arizona State pummeled Wyoming in the opener and got 262 rushing yards from Cam Skattebo for a win over Mississippi State in Week 2. After having 33 carries, the quick turnaround might be a tough one for the team’s leading rusher and best playmaker.

QB Sam Leavitt was strong against Wyoming, going 14-of-22 for 258 yards and two touchdowns with some big plays. He was less effective against Mississippi State, finishing 10-of-20 for 69 yards. He wasn’t asked to do much, but didn’t really excel with what he was asked to do. Will the Sun Devils find the same rushing success against Texas State or will Leavitt’s passing game be in the crosshairs?

The Bobcats defense definitely improved last season compared to the pre-Kinne era. But, this is still an offense-first type of club. James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud is 39-of-57 for 547 yards with a 5/2 TD/INT ratio. He’s completed 68% of his tosses against Lamar and UTSA. This is definitely a step up in class against ASU, so we’ll see how he fares in this one.

Texas State has 6.47 yards per play thus far after averaging 6.21 last season. Arizona State was 122nd in the nation last year with 4.75 YPP, but the early returns have been good to this point with over six yards per play. Dillingham has historically been an offensive guy and maybe we’re seeing the impact of a recruiting and portal cycle.

My Week 3 college football power ratings show Arizona State -4.5, but I’m not totally enamored with that line. Arizona State is a team I’ve pretty aggressively upgraded thus far and some recency bias may be leaking into the number. Prior to last week, I would’ve had Arizona State -1.5, but mix in the short week and the first road game and I think there are some qualitative adjustments to be made.

This is one of the biggest games in Texas State recent history with a Power Four team at home in a standalone spotlight and I think they show up in a big way.

Pick: Texas State +1.5

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