South Florida vs. North Texas
It is crazy to think that by the Friday games of Week 7, we’ll already have seen six college football games completed. But, we’re at the point where weeknights are getting busy and Friday marks Night 3 out of 49 straight with some sort of football game. And we’ve got some good ones on October 10, highlighted by the American Conference matchup of South Florida vs. North Texas.
Fresno State vs. Colorado State and Rutgers vs. Washington are the others, as the Mountain West and Big Ten are both represented. The Huskies made the trip to Piscataway last season and lost 21-18 in a game they dominated, outgaining Rutgers 521-299. Revenge is on the brain there in the nightcap, but South Florida vs. North Texas is undoubtedly the game of the night.
Odds from Circa Sports as of October 8, 12:30 p.m. PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits. See all of our Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions.
South Florida Bulls at North Texas Mean Green (PK, 67.5)
7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
There are mixed opinions on the expansion of the College Football Playoff, but the beauty of widening the field is that a game like this has massive implications. You would have never said that about South Florida and North Texas in the past, but USF heads to Denton as a ranked team and UNT is looking to hold onto an unbeaten record.
For a program that hasn’t won more than seven games since 2018, a win here would make them bowl-eligible by the middle of October. Despite their success, the Mean Green are a home underdog here and this is a key talking point based on the time of year. South Florida is a more “known” commodity for the public at this point, but this line move happened well before public money got involved.
The Bulls opened with Boise State, Florida, and Miami and went 2-1 in those games. The win over Florida is aging like a fine wine, even if the win over Boise State is like an IPA reaching its “Best By” date. The last two data points for the Bulls have been against SC State and Charlotte, so there’s nothing to take away from those. But, there is a massive strength of schedule discrepancy here and we will see modelers with weighted stats and influential early-week bettors account for those.
Per Jeff Sagarin, South Florida has played the nation’s 39th-toughest schedule. North Texas has played the 115th-toughest. Despite the weaker schedule, North Texas has averaged 6.35 yards per play to South Florida’s 6.62. I’ve heard a lot of bettors and analysts make the argument that defense is more of a byproduct of who you’ve played than a representation of how good the unit. I think that is a little oversimplified, but North Texas has allowed just 4.52 yards per play and USF has allowed 5.26. Army, who runs the ball basically all of the time, had nearly six yards per play on the UNT D.
I do really like Mean Green DC Skylar Cassity and he’s certainly had an impact on that side of the ball, but there are still holes that need to be plugged. The Mean Green have just 10 sacks in five games against some subpar opponents, but they do have 11 takeaways and that has been a huge help.
Speaking of turnovers, the Mean Green have lost three fumbles, but haven’t thrown an interception yet. Drew Mestemaker, who was nearly the hero of last season’s bowl game after not playing QB since he was a freshman in high school, has an 11/0 TD/INT ratio with a 67.9% completion rate. The offense is also averaging five yards per carry, but they don’t have a run longer than 31 yards. Some more explosiveness could be needed as the schedule ramps up.
A healthy Byrum Brown is a major difference-maker for the Bulls. He’s accounted for 13 total TDs so far, throwing for 10 and running for three as the team’s leading rusher. He’s thrown four interceptions, and, surprisingly, two of them came last game against Charlotte.
My Week 7 college football power ratings support this move, as I actually have South Florida -3 in the game. We’re not there yet, but we are trending in that direction with what is one of the highest totals on the board. It will be a huge test for North Texas. If they pass it, we’ll all take notice. If they don’t, we’ll have to keep that strength of schedule at the front of our minds.
Pick: South Florida PK
Other Friday Games
Fresno State (-6.5, 48.5) at Colorado State (9 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network): It could be a bit of a damp and cool Friday night in Fort Collins with some showers in the forecast as Fresno State hits the road once again. The Rams seem all-in on a QB change, as Jackson Brousseau has replaced Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and there have been some growing pains, including seven sacks over his two starts.
The Bulldogs have won back-to-back games by five combined points. Their first three wins were by more than this spread, but the two Mountain West games have not been. Offensively, they are limited. Defensively, they should keep getting stronger under Matt Entz. Too big of an ask on this number, I think.
Rutgers at Washington (-10.5, 59.5) (9 p.m, ET, FS1): Rutgers has had extra time to prep for this cross-country matchup against Washington. The Huskies came back from beating Maryland last weekend with a huge fourth-quarter comeback and now play on a short week. While Big Ten coaches are complaining about travel left and right, the situation for UDub lessens the advantage of Rutgers playing a midnight ET kickoff per their body clocks.
I think we overvalued Rutgers early in the season with the play of Athan Kaliakmanis over the first few weeks. In two Big Ten games, they have 5.39 yards per play and this defense ranks 123rd in the nation in yards per play, including 6.13 YPP in Big Ten games.
Even with a game against Ohio State, in which the Huskies allowed 5.76 YPP, they’re a top-25 unit in that category. They’re also top 25 in offensive yards per play, even with just 4.8 against OSU. Factor in the travel and the super late game and I think the Huskies are the side.
Pick: Washington -10.5
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 7 games on our Pro Picks Page.
