Delaware vs. Jacksonville State
Weeknight Conference USA action doesn’t have a cute name like MACtion, but it is the reason why we are in the midst of 49 straight days with at least one football game. So, we’ll celebrate the conference and put it up on a pedestal again here on Wednesday with two games. Delaware vs. Jacksonville State is on ESPN and UTEP vs. Sam Houston State is on CBS Sports Network.
The Delaware vs. Jacksonville State game is far more interesting, as UTEP and Sam Houston State are a combined 1-11 this season and 0-5 in conference play. At least the other game has some conference standings implications and also a lot of intriguing storylines.
We’ll start with Delaware vs. Jacksonville State and then UTEP vs. Sam Houston State will get an honorable mention.
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Delaware (-2.5, 57.5) vs. Jacksonville State
7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
This line seems to be telling us a story, as the first-year FBS Blue Hens are road chalk for a game in Jacksonville, Alabama. To this point, the teams have played pretty identical schedules per Jeff Sagarin, with Jacksonville State’s schedule 129th and Delaware’s 125th. Statistically, there are a lot of similarities, too. Delaware is 61st in the nation in yards per play with 5.88. Jacksonville State is 64th with 5.80. Jacksonville State is 95th in the nation in YPP allowed at 5.74, while Delaware is 105th with 5.9 YPP against.
The Blue Hens are a top-15 team by third-down conversion rate at 51.43%, while Jacksonville State is 51st at 42.53%. That’s one of the bigger differences between the teams, along with Delaware’s better red zone numbers. Otherwise, a lot of things are similar.
One thing that is not similar is that the Gamecocks made a QB change for last week’s game, as Caden Creel got his first start. He was 13-of-17 for 129 yards and didn’t take any sacks, but had a critical turnover at his own goal line that led to a next-play TD. He ran 24 times for 132 yards on the heels of having 161 rushing yards on 23 carries in relief against Southern Miss on September 27.
Gavin Wimsatt, who won the QB competition over the freshman Creel, had 5.2 yards per carry and a couple TD passes against a couple of picks, but his 55.8% completion percentage became unacceptable. Creel has a 67.6% completion rate and has 6.7 yards per carry, though a 73-yard run does skew the numbers a little bit. Still, it might be a big spark going forward for the Gamecocks to have the freshman out there, especially for a team that has 293 runs against just 143 pass attempts.
Nick Minicucci is a little bit of a runner for Delaware, as he has 51 carries, the second-most on the team, but a lot of that seems to be in hopes of evading the opposing pass rushers. He’s been sacked 10 times thus far and only has 2.5 yards per carry. Top running back Jo Silver had six yards per pop on 62 carries.
I’m not sure if we know much about this Delaware defense against the run. The Gamecocks have rushed for 5.72 YPC, ranking 13th in the nation in that department and they are third in rushing yards per game. They’ve played FCS rival Delaware State, Colorado (74th in YPC), UConn (19th), FIU (48th), and Western Kentucky (88th). UConn ranked in the 96th percentile in EPA/play against Delaware and in the 81st percentile in EPA/rush per Game on Paper. The Blue Hens blew out FIU, but the Panthers were still in the 79th percentile in EPA/rush.
I think Creel is definitely a better option than Wimsatt and he adds a lot more explosiveness to the Jacksonville State offense, especially with more first-team practice reps. I realize that Jacksonville State needed a long field goal to beat Sam Houston last week and the Bearkats are terrible, but Jacksonville State had a 499-286 edge in yards and ran for 370 yards.
I’ll take the home pup in this one.
Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5
Other Wednesday Game
UTEP (-3, 48) at Sam Houston State: This game kicks off at the same time as Delaware vs. Jacksonville State, but on CBS Sports Network. These two teams are very bad. UTEP is 124th in the nation in EPA/play margin per CFB Graphs and Sam Houston is 135th. Only Charlotte is worse. Obviously both teams have played some tough non-conference foes, as Sam Houston has the highest strength of schedule in the conference at 63 per Sagarin. UTEP has played the 128th-ranked schedule and still only has one win over FCS UT Martin.
UTEP has thrown 12 interceptions this season and has 13 total turnovers for a -7 TO margin. Sam Houston is -1 in that department. These are two bad teams any way you look at it. I lean Sam Houston here because UTEP has done nothing to suggest that they should be a road favorite over anybody except maybe UMass. But Sam Houston is 130th in yards per play on offense and 128th in YPP on defense, while UTEP’s defense is actually 35th in the nation despite all the turnovers and tough positions that they’ve been put into this season. That makes me stay away.
Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.
