Betting Edges for College Football Week 9 & NFL Week 8:
We are off our first non-profitable week for the football strength metric I recently introduced called the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings. The college football weekly winning streak ended after four weeks by going 7-7, and the NFL .500 streak reached four. So, a .500 record overall. We are now at 42-31 ATS in all for college football, good for 57.5%. All four weeks of pro games have produced a 3-3 ATS record, but with the way things have been going for my best bets in NFL, I should just be following these games. I’d love to be .500 right now in the BBs. Once again, I am continuing the process of calculating the point spread versus rating variances and providing these games for readers on a weekly basis until further notice. This piece covers the Week 9 college and Week 8 NFL betting boards.
Just a quick note on the records from last week. Like the prior game with ASU, Game #13 on the college board actually fell off the qualifying list once it was announced that ASU QB Sam Leavitt would play against Texas Tech, while his counterpart, Red Raiders QB Behren Morton, was kept out. That caused a major swing in the ratings, and I notified followers of my X account (@stevemakinen) about it on Saturday morning. For future reference, I will continue to try to do this. That said, on late-breaking injury news, please make any adjustments accordingly.
If you are new to this analysis, I encourage you to read any of the earlier articles on the introduction and further details of the Effective Play-by-Play Ratings for college and pro football. Those can be found under my author tag. For now, here are the updated top 25 college teams and all pro team current ratings, plus the top variances in terms of my new rating metric against the actual lines for this weekend, CFB Week 9 and NFL Week 8.
College Football Top 25 teams in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. OREGON: 80.3
2. NOTRE DAME: 71.9
3. OHIO STATE: 71.4
4. USC: 70.7
5. INDIANA: 68.6
6. MICHIGAN: 66.2
7. TEXAS A&M: 65.7
8. TEXAS TECH: 64.7
9. TENNESSEE: 63.1
10. ARKANSAS: 62.7
11. FLORIDA STATE: 62.3
12. ALABAMA: 62.2
13. WASHINGTON: 62.2
14. MIAMI FL: 62
15. VANDERBILT: 61.9
16. OLE MISS: 61.6
17. OLD DOMINION: 60.4
18. GEORGIA TECH: 59.4
19. CINCINNATI: 59.3
20. OKLAHOMA: 58
21. MISSOURI: 57.9
22. GEORGIA: 57.8
23. LSU: 57.5
24. UTAH: 57.4
25. TCU: 57
Interesting here in that Oregon bumps up to the top spot after its rout of Rutgers. In truth though, the Ducks’ tendency to beat up on weaker opponents really helps them in this regard. I do have some limiting factors on this type of metric to prevent that type of behavior from accounting for too much, but still, coach Dan Lanning’s team is currently the best in the country in terms of effective play-by-play strength. Notre Dame slides down to the No. 2 spot, followed by a quartet of Big Ten teams, Ohio State, USC, Indiana and Michigan. Yes, you read that correctly, five of the current top 6 teams in this strength rating metric are from the Big Ten. You won’t find an SEC team until Texas A&M at No. 7. However, teams from that power conference occupy six of the 10 spots between No. 7 and No. 16. The biggest loser this week was Old Dominion, which was clobbered at James Madison, 62-27, giving up 41 straight points to end the game. I was actually hoping that the Monarchs would fall out of the top 25, as any magic they seemed to have in the season’s first five-six weeks is gone. ODU is the only Group of 5 team on the list. There are a handful of big games this week between top-rated EPBP teams, meaning the list should see another shakeup next Tuesday.
All NFL Teams Ranked in Effective Play-by-Play Strength
(on an equivalent scale as my power ratings)
Rank. Team: Effective Play-by-Play Rating
1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS: 33.9
2. LOS ANGELES RAMS: 32.5
3. GREEN BAY PACKERS: 32.4
4. BALTIMORE RAVENS: 31.2
5. DETROIT LIONS: 30.3
6. ATLANTA FALCONS: 29.2
7. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: 27.2
8. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 27.1
9. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: 26.5
10. DENVER BRONCOS: 26.3
11. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: 26.2
12. HOUSTON TEXANS: 26.1
13. MINNESOTA VIKINGS: 25.2
14. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS: 24.9
15. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS: 24.8
16. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS: 23.4
17. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: 23.4
18. DALLAS COWBOYS: 22.9
19. BUFFALO BILLS: 21.7
20. ARIZONA CARDINALS: 21.6
21. NEW YORK GIANTS: 21.4
22. PITTSBURGH STEELERS: 21.4
23. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS: 21.3
24. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: 21.3
25. CLEVELAND BROWNS: 20.9
26. CAROLINA PANTHERS: 20.5
27. NEW YORK JETS: 19.3
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 18.6
29. CHICAGO BEARS: 17.5
30. MIAMI DOLPHINS: 17.2
31. CINCINNATI BENGALS: 16.9
32. TENNESSEE TITANS: 13.4
The Seahawks take over the top spot after a decisive 27-19 win over Houston on “Monday Night Football.” Several of their prior opponents also had good performances this past week, bumping their rating up even further. The Rams, Packers and Ravens settle in at Nos. 2-4. Baltimore is a particularly interesting case here, as coach John Harbaugh’s team has played a very difficult schedule to date and has been without QB Lamar Jackson in recent weeks. He could return this weekend against Chicago, and the Ravens’ slate the rest of the way is very easy on paper. They could be setting up to make a second-half run. At the bottom of the list remains Tennessee, a team struggling on all fronts, including this rating, which shows the Titans to be a point worse than their overall power rating. Unlike Baltimore, there isn’t a whole lot that would suggest future improvement.
Comparing the EYPP equivalent ratings to the actual Week 9 college football lines:
Here are the top 15 games for this weekend, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage factored into the differences.
1. (143) RUTGERS at (144) PURDUE
Actual Line: PURDUE +2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PURDUE -24.1
Difference: 26.6, Favors: PURDUE
2. (163) APPALACHIAN STATE at (164) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION -13.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -30.9
Difference: 17.4, Favors: OLD DOMINION
3. (145) SMU at (146) WAKE FOREST
Actual Line: WAKE FOREST +3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WAKE FOREST -12.1
Difference: 15.6, Favors: WAKE FOREST
4. (191) WISCONSIN at (192) OREGON
Actual Line: OREGON -33.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OREGON -48.3
Difference: 14.8, Favors: OREGON
5. (201) TOLEDO at (202) WASHINGTON STATE
Actual Line: WASHINGTON STATE -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON STATE +12.1
Difference: 13.6, Favors: TOLEDO
6. (137) MICHIGAN at (138) MICHIGAN STATE
Actual Line: MICHIGAN STATE +14
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MICHIGAN STATE +25.7
Difference: 11.7, Favors: MICHIGAN
7. (161) AUBURN at (162) ARKANSAS
Actual Line: ARKANSAS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ARKANSAS -12.9
Difference: 11.4, Favors: ARKANSAS
8. (119) CONNECTICUT at (120) RICE
Actual Line: RICE +10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: RICE +19.5
Difference: 9.5, Favors: CONNECTICUT
9. (159) NORTHWESTERN at (160) NEBRASKA
Actual Line: NEBRASKA -7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEBRASKA -16.4
Difference: 8.9, Favors: NEBRASKA
10. (185) BYU at (186) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +5.7
Difference: 8.2, Favors: BYU
11. (207) COLORADO STATE at (208) WYOMING
Actual Line: WYOMING -6
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WYOMING -13.6
Difference: 7.6, Favors: WYOMING
12. (123) BAYLOR at (124) CINCINNATI
Actual Line: CINCINNATI -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI -11.6
Difference: 7.1, Favors: CINCINNATI
13. (171) UTAH STATE at (172) NEW MEXICO
Actual Line: NEW MEXICO -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NEW MEXICO +4.1
Difference: 7.1, Favors: UTAH STATE
14. (195) ILLINOIS at (196) WASHINGTON
Actual Line: WASHINGTON -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WASHINGTON -11.6
Difference: 7.1, Favors: WASHINGTON
15. (133) BOSTON COLLEGE at (134) LOUISVILLE
Actual Line: LOUISVILLE -25.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISVILLE -18.5
Difference: 7, Favors: BOSTON COLLEGE
Comparing the Effective Play-by-Play equivalent ratings to the actual Week 8 NFL lines:
Here are the top six games for this weekend’s games, based on the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences.
1. (265) CHICAGO BEARS at (266) BALTIMORE RAVENS
Actual Line: BALTIMORE RAVENS -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: BALTIMORE RAVENS -17.3
Difference: 10.8, Favors: BALTIMORE RAVENS
2. (261) NEW YORK JETS at (262) CINCINNATI BENGALS
Actual Line: CINCINNATI BENGALS -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CINCINNATI BENGALS +2.7
Difference: 9.7, Favors: NEW YORK JETS
3. (267) MIAMI DOLPHINS at (268) ATLANTA FALCONS
Actual Line: ATLANTA FALCONS -7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ATLANTA FALCONS -14.3
Difference: 7.3, Favors: ATLANTA FALCONS
4. (283) WASHINGTON COMMANDERS at (284) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Actual Line: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -10
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS -3.8
Difference: 6.2, Favors: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
5. (281) GREEN BAY PACKERS at (282) PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Actual Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PITTSBURGH STEELERS +8.7
Difference: 5.7, Favors: GREEN BAY PACKERS
6. (269) BUFFALO BILLS at (270) CAROLINA PANTHERS
Actual Line: CAROLINA PANTHERS +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: CAROLINA PANTHERS +2.7
Difference: 4.8, Favors: CAROLINA PANTHERS
