Week 12 College Football: Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio
On the first night of MACtion for Week 12, half of the conference took the field. On the second night of MACtion, the other half will battle between the lines. Six teams are on the schedule for Wednesday and we have three big home favorites. One underdog, Akron, has taken money against Northern Illinois, while Kent State is inching out to a bigger underdog against Miami of Ohio and Eastern Michigan is seemingly untouchable with the way that line is moving against Ohio.
Four of the six teams in action are from the Buckeye State and rain does appear to be a possibility in two of the three games, so keep that in mind as you handicap the slate.
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We’ll start with Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio and go from there.
For all of this week’s college football insights, refer to our College Football Week 12 Hub.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Ohio Bobcats (-10, 50)
7 p.m. ET
The most competitive game on Wednesday, at least according to the betting odds, should be this one between Eastern Michigan and Ohio. Ohio was an 8-point favorite at open at Circa, but we’ve seen some Bobcat backing here to drive the number up a couple of points. Eastern Michigan gave up 22 points to Toledo last time out and then went for the win after scoring a touchdown on a last-second heave to lose 29-28.
The Eagles have lost three of their last four, but do control their own destiny for bowl eligibility and the Michigan MAC Trophy at season’s end, as the lone win was over rival Central Michigan. They’ve lost by 24 to Miami, 4 to Akron, and then the heartbreaker 10 days ago.
Ohio has won four of five, but got beaten pretty soundly by Miami in that stretch. The RedHawks were up 30-6 entering the fourth quarter before the Bobcats put some cosmetic touches on the board.
This should be a good matchup for the Ohio offense. EMU has allowed just shy of seven yards per play in conference games. Ohio, meanwhile, is a top-35 defense by YPP and they’ve only allowed 4.4 YPP in MAC games. The Bobcats are a top-25 offense by yards per carry and that’s where they should find success against EMU.
The Eagles also rank in the bottom 20 in yards per play on offense and had fewer than five yards per play against Toledo in that last-second defeat. We usually see line moves in games with big yards per play discrepancies and that’s precisely what we have here.
Pick: Ohio -10
Other Wednesday Games
Kent State Golden Flashes at Miami (OH) RedHawks (-30.5, 46): This is the type of spread/total combo you would usually see early in the season in a non-conference game. If we combine spread and total, you’re basically looking at Miami to win this game 38-8, so the Golden Flashes are not projected to get to double digits.
They didn’t get any digits against Ohio last week, as Tommy Ulatowski and Devin Kargman were not used, so third-stringer Ruel Tomlinson got his first start. He was 8-of-18 for 62 yards and threw a pick, along with five sacks. The freshman from legendary Ginn Academy (Ted Ginn Sr.) in Cleveland had a rough go of it in his first start to say the least.
Controversy surrounded Tomlinson’s first start, as Ulatowski was said to be “banged up”, but didn’t appear on the injury report. No play at all here, obviously, but the line implies Tomlinson starts again based on what my power ratings have.
Akron Zips at Northern Illinois Huskies (-15, 45): Weather could be a factor in DeKalb, as rain and wind are in the forecast. That would hurt Akron, who has zero running game to speak of and has relied a ton on the arm of Ben Finley. All things considered, he’s had a decent season with a 12/9 TD/INT ratio and 1,955 yards to this point.
NIU ripped off 5.9 yards per carry last week against Western Michigan and had a backbreaking kick return TD right after WMU scored a TD to tie the game at 21. I lean Akron here, but will have to see what the weather looks like as kickoff approaches. Wind and rain definitely affects them way more with 3.2 yards per carry as a team.
